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The US housing market declined by $2.3T in 2H 2022, mortgage applications are at their lowest level since 1995, Russia plans deep oil export cuts in March, global debt saw its first annual drop since 2015, US worker strikes were up 50% last year, JPMorgan restricted staff from using ChatGPT, and Mercedes partnered with Google.
McKinsey Employees Got McKinsey'd
Business activity picked up across the US and Europe, Canada inflation slowed to 5.9% in January, investors are piling into high-grade corporate bonds, Goldman expects three ECB rate hikes this year, state and local governments are stacked with cash, McKinsey will cut 2k jobs, and TPG is returning to private debt.
VC fundraising bear market
VC fundraising hit a 9 year low, US consumers are missing auto payments at the highest rate in a decade, Amazon corporate workers are facing pay reductions due to falling share prices, Uber is introducing 25k EVs to India, Biden visited Ukraine, and crypto hedge fund Galois Capital unwound its positions and closed down shop after getting rekt by FTX.
Zuck's Copying Twitter
Happy President's Day. Hope y'all are enjoying the long weekend. We'll keep this edition brief! Meta is launching a paid verification subscription on Instagram and Facebook, Goldman and BofA expect three Fed rate hikes, China eased overseas IPO rules, Nestle predicts that food prices will continue to rise, Amazon ordered employees back in the office 3x per week, and Stripe needs to raise $4B.
Luxury Watches = Inflation Hedge
MoM PPI was higher-than-expected in January, the SEC charged Do Kwon with fraud, luxury Swiss watches outperformed stocks and crypto last year, investors U-turned on 2023 rate cut bets, WallStreetBets' founder is suing Reddit, Stripe expects to turn a profit this year, YouTube CEO Wojcicki is stepping down, and streaming surpassed TV as the US's leading form of media entertainment.
Apple vs. Antitrust
US is at risk of a debt default in July, fintech startups have been on the decline with rates rising, Goldman sacked its idea for a D2C credit card, DOJ is stepping up its antitrust investigation into Apple, Musk will likely bring on a new Twitter CEO by end of year, and worker burnout is at a pandemic high.
Florida For The Rich
US CPI growth slowed to 6.4% YoY in January, Biden pledged to prevent a US debt default, fund managers are looking into emerging market stocks, Walmart wants its tech employees back in the office, Ford is cutting 3.8k jobs in Europe, Time is launching a new commerce site, a judge tightened SBF's bail conditions, and Florida now dominates the list of priciest zip codes in the US.
Happy Valentine's Day from the Federal Reserve
The eurozone just might avoid a recession, Japanese investors turned net buyers of overseas bonds, Hong Kong real estate firms are leading China's "reopening" trade, Amazon is going big on physical stores, Super Bowl betting set records for sports books, and, in the most crypto story ever, the founders of Three Arrows Capital (a now-bankrupt crypto hedge fund) launched an exchange to let users trade bankruptcy claims. Classic.
Is an Alien Invasion Bullish?
US fighter jets shot down multiple UFOs in Canadian and American airspace, the UK economy grew by 0% in Q4, North American firms purchased a record number of robots last year, the SEC is investigating the Mormon Church's investment arm, Moody's downgraded some Adani firms, and Meta is planning more job cuts.
Credit Suss
Credit Suisse shares tanked after the bank posted a $7.9B loss, German inflation slowed to 9.2%, Bank of America is preparing for a US debt default, Yellen wants China to move faster on developing country debt restructuring, FCC approved Amazon's satellite broadband plan, Adidas will post its first loss in 31 years after the Yeezy debacle, and PayPal's CEO is stepping down at the end of the year.
Robinhood Wants Its Stock Back
Fed officials are considering more modest rate hikes, Wall Street is finding it easier to raise money, PIMCO still forecasts a recession, Google will enhance search results with generative AI features, Disney is cutting 7,000 jobs, Bed Bath & Beyond issued new equity, Robinhood's board approved a plan to buy back SBF's stock, and LeBron broke the NBA scoring record.
Bonus Now, Pay Later
Credit Suisse is paying some junior banker bonuses in installments (a new low), J Pow said inflation is easing but interest rates will likely continue to rise, US junk bonds are trading at an average of 7.97%, UK managers suffered record $60B net outflows in 2022, SEC is considering requiring audited financial statements from private companies, retail investors are loading up on small-cap AI firms, and Wells Fargo will pay $300M to settle with shareholders over auto insurance disclosures.