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The IMF expects ZIRP to return post-inflation, Wall Street banks are bracing for lower earnings, Activist investor moves hit all-time highs in Q1, BOJ’s new chief will stick with loose monetary policy, KPMG missed SVB warning signs in a pre-collapse audit, US used EV sales rose 32% in Q1, Bitcoin climbed over $30k overnight, and Billy McFarland is bringing back Fyre Festival.

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Let’s dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks closed mostly flat as investors digested Friday's strong jobs report and braced for crucial inflation data and bank earnings later this week

  • Traders are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate hike in May

• Oil prices settled lower on Monday after rising for three straight weeks

• Dollar index rose 0.5%

• Spot gold fell ~1% to below $2k

• Major crypto-related stocks surged between 4%-13% on no apparent news

Earnings

• According to Wall Street forecasts, US companies face the biggest decline in profits since the Covid shutdowns, as high inflation squeezes margins and fears of an impending recession hold back demand (FT)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Wednesday: LVMH

  • Thursday: Delta

  • Friday: JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, BlackRock

• Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

• IMF expects major central banks to revert to ZIRP after inflation (RT)

• One year inflation expectations rose for first time since October (AX)

• UK consumer spending rose but lags far behind inflation (FT)

• Wall Street banks are bracing for lower Q1 earnings after March's crisis (RT)

• Activist investor moves hit record high in Q1 (FT)

• First batch of IPOs under new China listing rules surged ~100% on debut (FT)

• Global money market funds saw inflows for sixth straight week (RT)

• BOJ's new chief vowed to stick to ultra-loose policy for now (RT)

• Americans’ access to credit is at its toughest level in nearly a decade (RT)

• Manufacturing-related construction spending hit a record $108B in 2022 (WSJ)

• KPMG missed SVB warning signs in audit two weeks before collapse (WSJ)

• Goldman Sachs will pay a $15M fine for swap disclosure violations (RT)

• US used EV sales rose 32% in Q1 as prices fell (RT)

• Global PC sales fell 29% YoY in Q1, with Apple hit hardest (RT)

• Billy McFarland tweeted 'Fyre Festival II is finally happening' (BI)

• Ex-Twitter execs sued Twitter for unpaid fees (WSJ)

• VP Kamala Harris announces $1.7B in grants to 600 community lenders (BBG)

• Tupperware fell 49% after warning it could go out of business (RT)

• Super Mario Bros. smashes records in massive box office debut (AX)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Singapore-based sovereign wealth fund Temasek agreed to buy an additional 41% stake in Indian hospital chain Manipal Health Enterprises for $2B (RT)

• Online vitamins retailer Sunday Natural is exploring a sale at a potential $655-$923M valuation (RT)

• Emirates Telecommunications Group agreed to buy a 50.03% stake in Careem Now, the super app developed by Uber Technologies’ Middle East subsidiary, for $400M (BBG)

• Companies led by Indian billionaires Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani and global asset reconstruction firms are among the 49 entities trying to buy debt-laden Indian retailer Future Retail (RT)

• Marijuana producer Tilray Brands agreed to buy Canadian cannabis company Hexo Corp for $56M (RT)

• Mobile game developer Playtika has attracted renewed takeover interest from PE buyers (BBG)

• An investment group led by Kat Craddock acquired food website Saveur from venture equity-backed digital media company Recurrent (AX)

VC

• Kite, a NYC-based ‘next-generation commerce’ company, raised $200M in funding from Blackstone and Juxtapose (FN)

• Gigstreem, a provider of residential and commercial broadband networks, raised $59M in funding led by Crestline Investors (FN)

• Spartan Fitness Holdings, the largest franchisee of Club Pilates, raised $30M in financing led by Snapdragon (BW)

• Missafir, a Turkish professional short- and medium-term home rental management platform, raised an undisclosed pre-Series A round at a $26M valuation from investors including Ege Yap Technology Ventures (FN)

• Indian B2B e-commerce firm JSW One Platforms raised a $25M Series A at a $335.5M valuation from Mitsui & Co (RT)

• Virtual assistant startup Assis raised a $5M seed round led by Costanoa Ventures (FN)

• Field Materials, an AI software startup focused on global construction material purchasing, raised a $4.65M seed round led by Blumberg Capital (FN)

• SmartRyde, a marketplace for pre-booked airport transfers, raised a ~$3.4M Series A+ led by NVC1 and SMBC Venture Capital (BW)

• Lithuanian AI development startup Perfection42 raised a $1.2M seed round (FN)

SPAC

• Arrival, a Luxembourg-based producer of commercial EVs that previously went public through a merger with SPAC GIIC Merger Corp, has agreed to a second $283M reverse merger with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. V (BBG)

Fundraising

• VC firm Eclipse raised $1.2B for two new funds to back startups trying to modernize physical industries (BBG)

• Edtech VC firm Reach Capital raised $215M for its fourth fund and will focus on generative AI (BI)

Crypto Corner

• Winklevoss twins lent $100M of their own money to their crypto platform Gemini (BBG)

• Coinbase senior director Vishal Gupta will leave to start a new crypto project (BBG)

• Bitcoin climbs past $30,000 for the first time since June 2022 (BBG)

• Singapore plans new guidance for banks to vet crypto clients (BBG)

Exec’s Picks

• The New York Times covered how Bitcoin miners have made money by selling energy back to power companies to avoid grid blackouts.

• The Times also published a piece on rising tensions at TSMC over its proposed Arizona factory.

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