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Massive Earnings Week Inbound
It’s a big week for earnings calls as names like Goldman, Tesla, and Netflix report Q1 results, US money market funds are continuing to see heavy inflows, Yellen expects US banks to tighten lending, Musk is planning an OpenAI rival, and Ferrari has record orders into 2024.
Rental Market Cool Down
Rent inflation is cooling, Twitter partnered with eToro to let users trade stocks and crypto, Chinese exports surged in March, Amazon is facing 18 shareholder proposals this year, Apple tripled iPhone production in India, Sweden’s largest pension fund fired its CEO, and Bernard Arnault is now worth $210B+.
FTX comeback szn
FTX is considering using creditor money to restart crypto exchange (lol), US CPI fell to 5% YoY in March, public debt is growing faster than pre-Covid projections, US government posted a $378B budget deficit in March, JPMorgan wants its MDs back to office full-time, and Europe’s biggest SPAC is winding down.
Shrinking the Sheets
The Fed expects to see its balance sheet contract through 2025, EY canceled plans to split its audit and consulting businesses, China’s consumer inflation hit an 18-month low, Berkshire raised its stakes in Japan’s five largest trading houses, the US is studying possible rules to regulate AI, and office space for rent hit a record high.
Billy McFarland Is Back on the Map
The IMF expects ZIRP to return post-inflation, Wall Street banks are bracing for lower earnings, Activist investor moves hit all-time highs in Q1, BOJ’s new chief will stick with loose monetary policy, KPMG missed SVB warning signs in a pre-collapse audit, US used EV sales rose 32% in Q1, Bitcoin climbed over $30k overnight, and Billy McFarland is bringing back Fyre Festival.
IRS Hiring Spree
US average hourly wages rose 4.2% YoY in March, corporate bankruptcies jumped in Q1, Morgan Stanley wants to set up a futures shop in China, the IRS will hire 20k new workers by 2024, WeWork adopted a poison pill, Tesla cut its US prices again, and millennial homeowners now outnumber renters.
Pour one out for senior CS bankers
Senior Credit Suisse bankers are getting bonuses slashed bigly, VC funding is down 50% YoY, Tiger Global tried to sell VC fund stakes, Walmart sees sustained inflationary pressures, Tesla's EV dominance is fading, FedEx is merging its two main delivery networks, and Chamath dropped his 2022 annual letter (and got roasted on twitter for it).
30 Under 30's Newest Fraud Just Dropped
Foreign investments are flowing back into China, Goldman and JPMorgan are competing for the top deal advisory spot, short sellers made $848M in paper profits on bets against First Republic in March, Apple announced a first round of job cuts, Finland joined NATO, and the US brought criminal charges against Frank's founder.
Dead Doge Bounce
Musk is pumping Doge again, bitcoin and tech outperformed in Q1, US M&A activity slowed in 2023, China new home sales were up big in March, Germany fined and banned EY from some audits after Wirecard scandal, the DOJ sued Activision, McDonald's temporarily shut its US offices to prepare for layoffs, and the UFC's parent company bought WWE.
Great Q1, Everyone
Eurozone inflation slowed to 6.9% in March, US consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, Chinese companies are rushing for US IPOs, OPEC+ announced surprise production cuts, UBS will cut its workforce by 20-30%, Musk is eyeing a Twitter digital bank, Virgin Orbit is ceasing operations, and the White House will not pay for Twitter verification.
Wall Street Bonus Bear Market
Sam Bankman-Fried pled not guilty to campaign finance and China bribery charges, Q4 corporate profits showed biggest decline in five years, Wall Street bonuses fell 26% last year, bond issuances have slowed to a crawl, SNB's Credit Suisse lifeline could cost $11B, Citadel is reopening its Tokyo office, and Alphabet accused Microsoft of anti-competitive cloud practices.
The Big AI Scare
1,200 individuals including Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak are petitioning for a pause in AI development, US pending home sales rose for the third straight month, Moody's sees limited US credit risks from banking crisis, AI Whisperer is the new hot job, the FDIC faces $23B in costs from bank failures, and Deutsche Bank's sell-off has brought attention to the CDS market.