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Recession Imminent
Bloomberg is projecting a 100% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, China delayed its Q3 GDP data, Goldman is reorganizing its business, WWE is outperforming the market, Uber Eats partnered with Leafly to deliver cannabis products, Pelosi's husband took a huge L on Nvidia and Micron options, and new UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt is reversing 'almost all' of the UK tax cut plan.
It's All Downhill for Trevor Milton
Stocks were down again last week on a hot inflation report, consumer spending was flat in September, Lizz Truss ditched her corporate tax cut plan, Chinese president Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed for a third term, Instacart cut its valuation again, Nikola founder Trevor Milton was found guilty of fraud, North Korea is testing more missiles than ever before, and Tennessee beat Bama in an instant classic to cap off a wild weekend of college football.
Inflation and Mortgage Rates are Bussin'
Netflix is charging $6.99 for a new ad-supported plan, inflation rose 0.4% MoM (0.6% MoM for core), 30-year mortgage rates hit a 20-year high at 6.92%, social security payments will have biggest jump in 40 years, VC firms are buying tech stocks, Apple is partnering with Goldman to offer a savings account, and Merkel has 'no ragrets' about energy policy with Russia. Pretty wild turn of events with the market opening sharply down, only to rebound on *checks notes* not so great economic news and closing sharply up!
Kanye Dumped by JPMorgan
Global wealth is on track to decline 2% this year, mutual fund managers are holding record amounts of cash, Biden says a 'slight recession' is possible, JPMorgan broke up with Yeezy, Delta and Starbucks are linking their loyalty programs, Tom Brady and Kim Clijsters are the newest owners of a Major League Pickleball team, and Elon Musk launched a fragrance called 'Burnt Hair' for $100. He really missed a layup with "Elon's Musk" smh.
Bored Ape SEC Probe
US consumers' inflation expectations hit its lowest level in a year, corporate bond ETFs are plunging to new lows, the average US mortgage is above 7%, Biden will reevaluate the US's relationship with Saudi Arabia, the BoE is giving pension funds 3 days to balance positions, China and India call for Russian de-escalation in Ukraine, and the SEC is probing Bored Ape creator Yuga Labs.
Recession in 6-9 months?
Investors are pulling out of UK property funds, China's central bank extended $44B of currency swaps with the ECB, Cathie Wood criticized the Fed's rate hikes in a recent letter, Jamie Dimon said a recession is coming in 6-9 months (lol), the IRS is waiving penalties for some inherited retirement accounts until 2023, and Portugal will start taxing crypto gains.
Total Recall: Rivian Edition
The US added 263k jobs in September, Hurricane Ian may have caused $67B in insured losses, Biden signed off on a new data transfer framework between the US and Europe, Tesla sold a record number of China-made vehicles, Rivian recalled almost all of its vehicles, Chinese holiday home sales are down bad, and Twitter locked Kanye West's account.
Biden Eases on Pot
BoE said pension funds were near disaster before they intervened, US apartment demand had its first Q3 drop in 30 years, Porsche is now Europe's most valuable automaker, Biden is forgiving previous offenses for marijuana possession, Amazon is hiring 150k workers ahead of the holiday season, and Adidas is "reviewing" its relationship with Kanye (🎵 nobody knows what that means, but it's provocative 🎵).
LBO Financing Dry Spell
US national debt topped $31T, US trade deficit hit its lowest level in over a year, mortgage applications dropped 14% last week, global bond funds are facing their largest outflows in two decades, Apollo and Sixth Street are no longer in talks with Musk about financing his Twitter purchase, and Seattle overtook Boston as the US's 3rd richest city by household income.
The Musky Takeover
Musk revived his Twitter bid, Ray Dalio stepped down, stocks rebounded big time, US job openings fell by 1.1M in August, Manhattan apartment sales fell 18% in Q3, Amazon froze corporate hiring in its retail business, and Apple will be force to use USB-C ports in Europe.
Kim K Gets Fined, Elon Gets Dragged
Liz Truss reversed her tax cut plans, ocean freight rates continue to fall, Poland wants trillions in WWII reparations from Germany, UBS CDS prices hit a decade high, GM sales rose 24% in Q3, Peloton is putting bikes in all Hiltons, Nvidia is ceasing activity in Russia, and Kim K got clapped by the SEC.
Credit Suss
Credit Suisse's CDS spreads keep climbing and their CEO issued statements over the weekend saying they're in a good position, Europe reported double digit inflation, M&A activity is down YoY, Russia banned SoundCloud, Gazprom suspended gas flows to Italy, Brazil's presidential race is going to a runoff at the end of this month, and fintech startups are still hiring despite the funding slowdown.