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Big Tech Earnings on Deck
Car owners are falling behind on payments at the highest rate on record, European money managers are betting on higher ECB rates, Argentina’s Peronists outperformed expectations in the country’s general election, Hollywood actors and studios restarted contract negotiations, and big tech earnings will put the stock market to the test this week.
Tim Cook's China Tour
Powell signaled that the Fed will stay on hold, Credit Suisse is preparing for more job cuts, Harvard’s endowment outperformed Yale’s, the 60-40 strategy had its worst year in generations, home sales slid to the lowest pace since 2010, PC demand is back, and Tim Cook made a surprise visit to China.
Ackman Still Loves the SPAC Market
The 10-year yield is approaching 5%, Ackman is playing the SPAC market on his own terms, Biden is seeking an unprecedented Israel package, Sequoia is being targeted by the US Committee’s China tech investment probe, Netflix is raising prices after its best subscriber gain in years, and Delta walked back changes to its SkyClub access.
Binance Blocked Dollar Withdrawals
Binance.US paused dollar withdrawals, retail sales rose by 0.7% in September, Nvidia stock fell on news of US restrictions on AI chip exports, GM is delaying its all-electric truck production at Michigan plant, Airbnb faces curbs in Canada, and protests in Guatemala are closing roads.
Goldman Wants Out of Consumer Lending
Bezos passed Arnault on the list of world’s richest people, home sales are on track for their slowest year since housing bust, Goldman wants out of consumer lending, the MBA job market is slow, big tech could benefit from Jim Jordan as House speaker, and Linkedin announced ~700 layoffs.
Consumers Aren't Loving EVs
The US is further cracking down on China’s access to chip technologies, oil prices continue climbing due to uncertainty in the Middle East, Taylor Swift’s Eras Concert is the highest-grossing domestic concert film ever, Biden might visit Israel, car buyers aren’t falling in love with EVs, and Xi’s crackdown on finance in China hit its two-year mark.
Adam Aron Got Catfished
AMC’s CEO Adam Aron got blackmailed, the US is holding off on disbursing $6B of oil money in Iran, Scalise dropped out of the US House race, Americans failed to pay a record $668B in taxes, theaters are showing Taylor Swift’s concert, and Europe gave TikTok’s CEO 24 hours to respond about Israel - Hamas misinformation.
Microsoft's Fat Tax Bill
The IRS says Microsoft owes $29B in back taxes, China’s State Fund is buying shares in bank stocks, the Fed is divided on more rate hikes, Israel and Egypt want to create a safe passage for Americans stuck in Gaza, Hollywood suspended talks with actors, and YouTube passed Netflix as the top video source for teens.
Caroline Snitched on SBF
Caroline Ellison testified against her former boss/boyfriend, Biden confirmed that Americans are being held hostage by Hamas, higher interest rates are likely to persist for longer, PE deal flow is slow, banks are benefiting from rising rates, and Deloitte is expanding in the Maldives and Sri Lanka.
Betting Against Obesity
Ozempic risk has become a short thesis for restaurant stocks, stakes are rising in the Israel/Palestine fighting with new Hamas hostage threats, major airlines are suspending flights to Israel, Texas offices are vacant, Hollywood writers ratified their new contact with studios, and Robert F. Kennedy is running as an independent.
Heartbreaking Weekend in Israel
Hamas attacked multiple Israeli towns this weekend, Iran likely helped plot the attacks, oil prices climbed due to Middle East uncertainty, some investors are willing to bet on Argentina, Wall Street can’t handle all of Washington’s bonds, and distressed debt anxiety is rippling through emerging markets.