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- Page 47
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Debit Suisse
Credit Suisse had a rollercoaster 24 hours, the UK expects to avoid a recession this year, short sellers have built positions worth $16B+ against European banks, BofA is benefiting from the SVB failure, First Republic's credit rating was downgraded to junk, and the US threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese owners don't sell their stakes.
AMC Apes Down Horrendous
Stocks bounced back after the global financial sector did not collapse, bank stocks recovered some of their recent losses, CPI growth slowed to 6% in February, Moody's outlook on the US banking system turned negative, Argentina inflation passed 100%, TikTok may split from ByteDance, OpenAI unveiled GPT-4, Meta scrapped its NFT plans, and AMC announced a reverse stock split.
Chick-fil-A Going Global
Biden insists that the banking system is safe, the ECB sees limited Europe consequence from US banking collapse, HSBC will inject $2.4B of liquidity into SVB's UK arm, bonds are rallying hard while yields plunge amidst banking fears, First Republic Bank's shares fell 62%, Chick-fil-A is planning a $1B Asia/Europe expansion, and Amazon and Rivian are revising their EV delivery truck deal.
Crisis Averted
Regulators closed Signature Bank in the second bank failure in recent days, SVB and Signature Bank depositors will have full access to their funds today, US 1Y CDS hit a record high 83 bps, Japan equity funds saw their largest weekly outflow since 2018, Saudi Aramco had a record 2022 profit, and Meta is planning new job cuts.
Bank Runs Are SO Back
Silicon Valley Bank had to raise $2.25B to shore up its balance sheet, Ark has topped $300M in fees since inception, investors are pulling money out of corporate bond ETFs, the remote work job market is shrinking, Apple is planning an India expansion, and Spotify has a TikTok-like redesign.
Kanye Rugged Adidas
Crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital is shutting down, J Pow said the Fed has not yet decided on the size of its next rate hike, eurozone Q4 GDP growth was revised downward to 0%, Japan posted its largest current account deficit ever in January, EY paused plans to split in two, and Adidas is projecting its first annual loss in 31 years this year.
MOAR RATE HIKES
J Pow said more rate hikes are coming, yield curve inversion hit -1% for the first time in 40 years, US manufacturing growth is outpacing the world, BlackRock says that the Fed could raise rates to 6%, Salesforce is adding ChatGPT to Slack, Musk said Twitter could be cash flow positive next quarter, and Lego sales were up huge in 2022.
Aston Martin Short Squeeze
Aston Martin is getting short-squeezed, global supply chains "returned to normal" according to the NY Fed, 70+ SPACs are facing liquidation risk, Chinese firms are ditching the US and UK for Swiss listings, hedge funds are suing the LME for its decision to cancel billions in nickel trades last year, and Alameda Research is suing Grayscale.
Amazon Pauses HQ2 Construction
China set a 2023 GDP growth target at ~5%, eurozone business activity is quickly recovering, home prices fell YoY for the first time in a decade, UK firms are ditching London listings for NYC, Twitter revenue is down 40% YoY, Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman is leaving OpenAI's board, and Amazon paused construction of its HQ2 in Virginia.
May the Salesforce Be with You
Salesforce beat earnings after activist investor pressure, US high-yield corporate bond performance declined in February, fewer US firms see China as an investment priority, Senate overturned a federal rule on ESG investments, Vanguard closed its UK financial advice arm, Eli Lilly is slashing insulin prices, and Litquidity just dropped it's 2023 sell-side compensation report (more info below).