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US Risk-Free Debt (Not)
America’s risk of a debt default is gathering steam, Charles Schwab began hedging interest-rate risks, PE firms are facing a new wave of portfolio company bankruptcies, buy now, pay later apps are rejecting users, IBM expects to replace ~8k jobs with AI, and retail traders are making risky bets on regional bank stocks (but who’s surprised??)
Buffett Sold Some Stocks
Buffett’s Berkshire was a net seller in Q1, the labor market doesn’t care about higher interest rates, the White House is scrambling to handle the debt ceiling dilemma, US regional bank shares have recovered slightly, China’s forex reserves hit $3.2T, and crypto is regaining momentum.
Tim Cook Saved the Stock Market
Regional bank stocks keep falling due to contagion fears, a pause in rate hikes might be around the corner, gold prices are approaching all-time highs, the FDIC plans to hit big banks with fees to refill deposit insurance, and Apple managed to once again support the global economy with another earnings beat.
Another Bank on the Brink
PacWest is the latest potential regional bank fatality, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps, tensions are rising in Russia after a projectile hit the Kremlin, Ackman warns that the US regional banking system is at risk, sovereign debt costs could double in two years as rates rise, and US private funds will face more disclosures.
Icahn Got Icahn'd
Regional bank stocks got rekt, US job openings fell for a third-straight month, the Chinese IPO market has been hot this year, Hindenburg is coming for Icahn, Australia’s central bank hiked rates by 25 bps, IBM expects AI to replace thousands of jobs, Chegg is getting clapped by AI, Ford cut its Mustang Mach-E prices, and the NYSE is delisting First Republic Bank shares.
Jamie Dimon Does It Again
First Republic became the second-largest-ever US bank failure, JPMorgan scooped up First Republic, Yellen said the US could default in a month, short bets against commercial REITs hit a post-Covid high, US ETF trading volume hit lowest level since Covid, Morgan Stanley plans to cut 3k jobs in Q2, and investors sued Adidas over its partnership with the one formerly known as Kanye.
AI Gold Rush
OpenAI raised $300M, bitcoin is on a hot streak, 80% of S&P 500 firms have outperformed earnings estimates, SVB considered selling $20B of bonds in the months before the bank run, Lyft wants its employees back in the office, Hollywood is bracing for a writers’ strike, and JPMorgan acquired First Republic Bank.
EU Has New AI Roadblocks
The EU proposed new copyright laws for generative AI, PCE index growth slowed to 4.2% YoY in March, First Republic is working on a plan to prevent a government seizure, JPMorgan employees aren’t happy about Dimon’s RTO mandate, Clubhouse is cutting 50% of its employees, and J Pow got duped by a Zelenskiy prank.
Microsoft Got Blocked
The UK blocked Microsoft’s $69B purchase of Activision Blizzard, US business spending continued to fall in March, S&P 500 earnings are coming in better than expected, Biden said US chip subsidies weren’t designed to hurt China, First Republic is seeking more big bank help, and Disney sued Ron DeSantis.
First Republic Fire Sale
First Republic Bank’s stock fell by ~50% after the company reported $100B in net outflows, Biden will veto the Republicans’ debt bill if passed by Congress, US new-home sales hit a one-year high in March, Netflix is investing billions in South Korean content, and Binance.US terminated its deal to buy Voyager Digital.
Larry Fink Has Paper Hands
SVB’s CEO and CFO resigned, central banks are loading up on gold, Moody’s downgraded 11 regional banks, Norway’s wealth fund posted an $84B Q1 profit, Tiger Global’s $12.7B venture fund is down 20%, Credit Suisse posted a record $5B of outflows during March turmoil, and Larry Fink sold 7% of his BlackRock stake.