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Bond Yield Bull Market
The S&P closed in the red as bond yields continued to rise, DC isn’t worried about Fitch’s downgrade, Elon is a big fan of T Bills, Amazon had a blowout earnings report, Airbnb bookings were lower than expected, BoE raised rates again, and ESPN created a strategic plan for its streaming business.
Dimon Downplayed Fitch
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen weren’t fans of Fitch’s downgrade, the US boosted the size of quarterly bond sales for the first time in 2.5 years, European IPOs hit lowest level since 2009, Asian investors are ramping up dollar hedges, Ackman is short US 30Y bonds, and US banks are betting big on AI applications.
Uber Finally Turned a Profit
Fitch downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, fund managers are struggling to attract new capital, Uber is finally generating profits, Apple is headed for its largest Q3 revenue drop in years, China wants banks to delay dollar buying, AMD is planning an AI chip debut, and Meta offered to seek consent for personalized ads in Europe.
ESG Scores Don't Mean Much
The eurozone economy grew in Q2 after a Q1 decline, traders are bracing for a wave of Treasury sales, the equity-risk premium is at a 20-year-low, the US has a construction worker shortage, companies with high ESG scores are polluting as much as low-score rivals, Exxon is in talks with Tesla and Ford to supply lithium, and SBF may have been behind the $BALD crypto project scandal.
Brazilian Rate Cuts
The PCE index rose just 3% YoY, US consumer sentiment hit its highest level in two years, Brazil is cutting rates in August, Barbenheimer sales stayed strong in second weekend, DoorDash is working on an AI chatbot to speed up ordering, and the pay gap between US cities is growing wider.
Sequoia Slashed Its Crypto Fund
Sequoia is downsizing its crypto fund, US growth is accelerating on the back of strong consumers, BOJ adjusted its yield curve control policy, China’s debt ratio hit a record, Amazon is infusing Alexa with AI, and Bud Light’s brewer laid off 300+ corporate employees amid sales slump.
No More Fed Hikes?
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps, Meta’s ad business rebounded, investors are dumping Chinese stocks for other emerging markets, the BOJ is keeping ultra-low rates, the EU agreed to create a real-time consolidated record of securities deals, thousands of users have tried Amazon’s AI service, and the PGA tour is making concessions to players concerned about LIV’s Saudi ties.
UPS Union Strike Averted
UPS and the Teamsters union averted a strike with a new five-year plan, the Fed is set to raise rates to a 22-year high, Warren Buffett bought the dip in energy stocks, Google and Microsoft are paying big bucks in the AI race, TikTok is launching an e-commerce business in the US, and the luxury home market is slowing.
Credit Suisse Got Bill Hwang'd
Credit Suisse got fined $388M over Archegos collapse, MS’s Wilson turned more bullish, Twitter X is facing potential trademark issues, FDIC accused banks of manipulating deposit data, LVMH will sponsor Paris Olympic Games, and the US junk loan market hit its most downgrades since Covid.
RIP Twitter
Labor force participation for working-age Americans hit its highest level since 2002, hedge funds are competing for battered commercial real estate, Twitter is rebranding as ‘X,’ Taylor Swift’s tour is stimulating the economy, ‘Barbenheimer’ had a blowout weekend, Alibaba is not joining Ant Group’s share buyback, and Spotify might raise its premium prices.
Blackstone Joins the Trillionaire Club
Blackstone hit $1T AUM, the Fed launched its instant payments system, housing’s recession may have already happened, Sergey Brin is working on AI tech at Google, Sternlicht is looking for bargains after the Fed raised rates, North Korea breached a US tech firm to steal crypto, and TSMC delayed the start of its Arizona factory.