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Good Morning,

Trump is pushing to switch quarterly earnings to semi-annual, US and China agreed to terms on a TikTok sale, the SEC is scrapping its aggressive Biden-era enforcement agenda, Robinhood is launching a startups fund open to retail investors, and Joe Biden is failing to cash in on his presidency clout.

Diversify beyond volatile stocks and bonds with Percent, a highly democratized private credit market for exclusive private credit deals.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks rose yesterday as investors braced for the Fed’s rate decision this week

  • S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh ATHs

  • Traders expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this year

• Japan stocks rose a fourth-day to fresh ATHs

• Treasuries race past global peers amid a new Fed easing cycle

• Long-dated munis gained 4% in its best month since November 2023

  • Long-dated munis are flat YTD

  • Munis are up 2.7% YTD

• Gold hit a fresh ATH

• Copper futures hit an 18-month high

• West Texas natural gas cash prices dipped below zero to the lowest in 14 months due to pipeline maintenance

Earnings

• Dave & Buster's missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as same-store sales declined again amid execution missteps such as excessive promotions and weak training; management pledged operational fixes (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: General Mills, Cracker Barrell, Bullish

  • Thursday: FedEx, Darden Restaurants 

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• US threatened banning TikTok to secure deal with China (RT)

• Trump proposed switching quarterly earnings to semi-annual (CNBC)

• Nasdaq supports reforms to reduce burden on public companies (RT)

• Wall Street raises alarm on ending quarterly earnings (BBG)

• New SEC chair scraps aggressive enforcement agenda (FT)

• Stephen Miran was confirmed to the Fed board (CNBC)

• Appeals court blocked firing of Fed's Cook before FOMC meeting (CNBC)

• Fed's Bullard meets conditions to be Fed chair (RT)

• Apollo says bank tie-ups are crucial for high-grade private credit (BBG)

• Repo facility shows signs of mild funding pressure (RT)

• Investors are cutting dollar exposure at record pace (BBG)

• Hong Kong equity deals boom as Chinese firms rush to market (BBG)

• Activists ramp up Japan bets after record bids last year (BBG)

• Goldman and T. Rowe will offer alternatives to retail by year end (RT)

• Chile firms in bond sale binge as capital markets recover (BBG)

• Robinhood will to launch a startups fund for retail investors (TC)

• SEC allows Exxon plan to limit shareholder activism (FT)

• Plaid agreed to pay JPMorgan for customer data (BBG)

• Alphabet surpassed a $3T market cap (BBG)

• 77% of firms are using AI to automate work (BBG)

• Workers are getting fired over posts mocking Charlie Kirk's death (WSJ)

• Joe Biden is struggling to cash in on his presidency (WSJ)

A Message from Percent

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While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, private credit may offer a path to diversification when equity markets feel overvalued.

• Historically Resilient in Market Downturns

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Join Percent today and diversify with confidence—up to $500 bonus on your first investment.

Alternative investments are speculative and possess a high level of risk. No assurance can be given that investors will receive a return of their capital. Those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest. Investments in private placements are highly illiquid and those investors who cannot hold an investment for an indefinite term should not invest. Private credit investments may be complex investments and they are subject to default risk.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Madison Industries is exploring a sale of industrials group Filtration Group at an over $10B valuation, including debt

• Blackstone acquired a natural gas plant in Pennsylvania for $1B

• European PE firm CVC is in talks to acquire KKR's majority stake in Indian lender Avendus after Mizuho's $800M buyout attempt stalled

• California's largest O&G producer California Resources agreed to acquire rival Berry Corp. in an all-stock deal at a $717M valuation, including debt

• Energy giant Chord Energy agreed to acquire ExxonMobil's assets in North Dakota for $550M

• Turkey mining conglomerate Nurol agreed to acquire Canadian miner Alamos Gold's Turkey assets for $470M

• Regional bank National Bank Holdings agreed to acquire Texas-based rival Vista Bancshares for $369M in a take-private cash-and-stock deal

• Lynn Forester de Rothschild is exploring a 20% stake sale in The Economist, for potentially $270M

• Digital-asset firm MoonPay acquired crypto payments  startup Meso Network

VC

• Construction tech and permitting startup GreenLite raised a $49.5M Series B led by Insight Partners

• MarqVision, an AI startup fighting counterfeiting and trademark infringement, raised a $48M Series B led by Peak XV Partners 

• Geothermal power generation startup Rodatherm raised a $38M Series A led by TDK Ventures

• Doctronic, an AI-native platform delivering fast, private, and personalized healthcare at scale, raised a $20M Series A led by Lightspeed Venture Partners

• German agricultural photovoltaics startup feld.energy raised a $12M seed round led by HV Capital

• French insurtech startup Seyna raised a $12M round led by 115K

• Rihal, a Omani technology and data solutions provider, raised a $7.5M Series A led by ITHCA Group

• Eloquent AI, a startup automating complex customer service workflows in financial services, raised a $7.4M seed round led by Foundation Capital

• Cierpa & Co, a Japanese sustainability data platform provider, raised a $7M Series B led by WiL

• uiAgent, an AI agent platform for accounting firms, raised a $4.6M seed round led by Marathon Management Partners

• Pascal AI Labs, an Indian platform for agentic investment research workflows, raised a $3.1M seed round led by Kalaari Capital

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• UK card reader fintech SumUp is exploring a London IPO at a $10B-$15B valuation 

• Danish offshore wind developer Orsted plans to sell shares at a 67% discount in a $9.4B rights offering

• Hellman & Friedman-backed Swiss security services firm Verisure is seeking to raise $3.5B in Europe's biggest IPO since 2022 

• Abu Dhabi SWF Mubadala raised $858M in a 7.55% stake sale of Emirates Integrated Telecommunications

• Tickets marketplace StubHub is set to raise $850M in an IPO that is 20x oversubscribed

• Chinese LiDAR maker Hesai Group raised $535M in a Hong Kong listing

• German prosthetics maker Ottobock is planning to raise $117M in a Germany IPO

Debt

• Mexico sold $6B of euro-denominated bonds to fund a bond buyback by struggling state-owned oil firm Pemex

• Italian lender Banco BPM plans to issue an SRT tied to a $2.9B corporate loan portfolio  

• Indian conglomerate Reliance Group raised $2.4B in an ABS sale

• Auto-parts maker American Axle is seeking to raise $2.3B in leveraged loans to help fund its $1.6B takeover of UK peer Dowlais

• Switzerland-based visa services firm VFS Global is seeking to raise $2B to refinance existing debt

• Italy is looking to raise $1.8B from Italian banks in 2027 by postponing their tax deductions

• Renault's car financing unit RCI Banque is seeking to raise $470M in its first AT1 bond sale as AT1 market booms

• Chinese tech giant Tencent appointed banks for its first bond sale in four years

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Canadian luxury retailer Ssense, once valued at $5B, raised $40M in interim funding to keep business running after filing for bankruptcy last month

• A federal judge upheld aerospace parts supplier Incora's 2022 financing deal with Silver Point Capital, PIMCO, and others, reversing a bankruptcy-court ruling that the firm breached credit agreements by allowing them to leapfrog other creditors

• Venezuela representatives and bidders are clashing over the sale of the parent of Citgo Petroleum due to valuation concerns

Fundraising / Secondaries

• PE firm Advent raised $20B for its latest flagship fund targeting mid-sized transactions

• Spain's Asterion Industrial Partners raised $4B for its third flagship fund

• UK PE firm ICG raised $3.7B for its sophomore infrastructure fund

• T. Rowe Price launched a $500M blue bond fund backed by Walmart heir Lukas Walton

• $1.2B AUM Asia-focused multi-strat Arrowpoint is seeking $400M in new money by Q1 2026

• PE firm Crux Capital raised $342M for its debut fund

• Standard Chartered's venture building arm plans to raise $250M for its latest VC fund targeting digital assets in the financial services sector

• Healthcare-focused VC Venture Investors raised $80M for its seventh fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Robinhood expands token push with new VC fund

• Coinbase-linked blockchain Base is exploring a new cryptocurrency

• Crypto groups hit out at BoE plan to limit stablecoin ownership

• London Stock Exchange Group completed its first blockchain-powered fundraising

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto.

Exec’s Picks

• Speed is alpha. Get unlimited access to Brightwave's powerful AI investment research platform for 14 days. Rapid deal screens, instant memos, and real-time market insights – Brightwave does the grunt work for you. Start your free trial today.

• ICYMI, I recently published a Deep Dive into Pacaso, a startup sitting at the intersection of real estate and travel. Founded by former Zillow execs, Pacaso is redefining second-home ownership in a $1.3T market and is currently raising from a range of investors. Check out my piece to learn more about their business model, vision and fundraising efforts.

• Arguably the top 4 tweets of all time. The kind of quotes to frame on your wall.

• Asset managers are racing to expand into alternative investments. Just that it isn't quite working…

• Tail risk hedge fund manager Vineer Bhansali sees losing Fed independence as the biggest tail risk right now. Hear his conversation with Bloomberg Odd Lots here.

• LinkedIn released their Top MBA Programs 2025 list: The 100 best global business schools to grow your career.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.