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Fogo de Bain
Fitch may downgrade dozens of banks, Hindenburg has a new short target, US retail sales topped forecasts, Bain acquired Fogo de Chão, US Steel takeover talks have manufacturers concerned, hedge funds beefed up their AI bets, and Home Depot’s inflation pressures eased.
New Hollywood Writer Deal Just Dropped
Hollywood studios have offered writers a new deal, Burry is shorting the market again, UBS will pay billions to settle a DOJ mortgage-bond case, China cut key rates, hedge funds are preparing for a legal battle with the SEC over fee disclosures, and physical markets are helping push oil to $90.
Cage Fight Canceled - Zuck
Zuck says the fight with Musk is off, the US housing market is recovering, Goldman expects a Fed rate cut in Q2 2024, the latest stock market rally has stalled, Amazon is racing to catch Microsoft and Google in generative AI, airlines are adding more high-end seats, and China hedge funds are down bad
Fed Pause Pending
The Fed is expected to pause, but not pivot, after a tame inflation report, Deutsche Bank’s asset manager is targeting a Holy Grail of the world’s ultra-rich, Morgan Stanley hopes for a drama-free CEO handoff, Disney wants sports leagues as ESPN partners, tech investors are wary of ‘new era’ of China investment restrictions, and the US is set to crack down on real estate money laundering.
Truck Driving > Financial Modeling
UPS drivers are getting paid like investment bankers, Citadel boosted its fixed income presence, Brookfield expects record inflows in 2023, WeWork’s struggles paint a dim picture for the NYC office market, the FAA extended cuts to airlines’ minimum flight requirements from NY airports, and Portnoy bought Barstool back for $1.
Dave Portnoy takes back the pirate ship
Dave Portnoy bought back 100% of Barstool from Penn, WeWork is a going concern, Wall Street bankers got fined big time for illegal texts, ESPN is launching a sportsbook with Penn, Zoom wants employees back in office, Tesla’s CFO made a fortune, and some savings accounts have higher interest rates than millions of mortgages.
Berkshire Hit a Record High
US consumer credit card debt exceeds $1T, stocks closed in the green, Credit Suisse is cutting 80% of its Hong Kong IB jobs, Berkshire closed at a record high, Tesla’s CFO stepped down, Apple’s iPhone 15 is reportedly set for mid-September launch, US tech groups are backing TikTok’s challenge to Montana’s state ban, and banks want to dump property loans.
Billion Dollar Barbie
Barbie is on pace to top $1B in the box office, UBS is set to shake up its IB division, Musk says his fight with Zuck will be streamed on X, global investors are pivoting from China to Japan stocks, and SoftBank is benefiting from the rebound in tech valuations.
Bond Yield Bull Market
The S&P closed in the red as bond yields continued to rise, DC isn’t worried about Fitch’s downgrade, Elon is a big fan of T Bills, Amazon had a blowout earnings report, Airbnb bookings were lower than expected, BoE raised rates again, and ESPN created a strategic plan for its streaming business.
Dimon Downplayed Fitch
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen weren’t fans of Fitch’s downgrade, the US boosted the size of quarterly bond sales for the first time in 2.5 years, European IPOs hit lowest level since 2009, Asian investors are ramping up dollar hedges, Ackman is short US 30Y bonds, and US banks are betting big on AI applications.
Uber Finally Turned a Profit
Fitch downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, fund managers are struggling to attract new capital, Uber is finally generating profits, Apple is headed for its largest Q3 revenue drop in years, China wants banks to delay dollar buying, AMD is planning an AI chip debut, and Meta offered to seek consent for personalized ads in Europe.
ESG Scores Don't Mean Much
The eurozone economy grew in Q2 after a Q1 decline, traders are bracing for a wave of Treasury sales, the equity-risk premium is at a 20-year-low, the US has a construction worker shortage, companies with high ESG scores are polluting as much as low-score rivals, Exxon is in talks with Tesla and Ford to supply lithium, and SBF may have been behind the $BALD crypto project scandal.