Zuck's Bounce Back

Zuck's net worth increased by $12.5B this week, the ECB and BOE raised rates by 50 bps, stock buybacks increased by 3x from last January, US weekly jobless claims hit a 9-month low, West Texas oil production and profits hit record highs, and ChatGPT set a record for fastest growing user base.

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Zuck's net worth increased by $12.5B this week, the ECB and BOE raised rates by 50 bps, stock buybacks increased by 3x from last January, US weekly jobless claims hit a 9-month low, West Texas oil production and profits hit record highs, and ChatGPT set a record for fastest growing user base.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/2/2023 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks surged yesterday, with tech stocks rocketing, as investors bet that cooling inflation could induce Fed rate cuts later this year

    • The S&P and Nasdaq hit five-month highs

    • The Dow was dragged down by declines in some big healthcare stocks

  • The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 1.3% as investors responded to the ECB's 50 bps rate hike

    • The index gained 6.7% last month for biggest January gain in eight years

  • The dollar gained sharply against the euro and pound in a week marked by major central bank rate hikes

  • Oil prices settled lower on a strengthened dollar

Earnings

  • Alphabet missed on Q4 EPS and revenue estimates on weak Google and YouTube ad revenue and expects an up to $2.8B Q1 charge related to layoffs and office space reduction (CNBC)

  • Amazon beat on Q4 revenue estimates but saw a less-than-expected 20% YoY increase in AWS sales and closed its slowest year of growth in its 25 years as a public company, while also providing light guidance (CNBC)

  • Apple posted its first EPS miss in seven years and its largest quarterly revenue decline since 2016 owing to a strong dollar, China production issues, and macroeconomic headwinds (CNBC)

  • Qualcomm beat Q1 EPS estimates but missed on revenue on macroeconomic challenges and weakening smartphone demand while issuing weak Q4 guidance (CNBC)

  • Eli Lilly missed on Q4 revenue as it came up short on sales for its Mounjaro diabetes drug, they nonetheless posted strong earnings and raised their FY EPS guidance (BRN)

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • ECB raised rates by 0.5% to 2.5% and hinted at another 50 bps hike (WSJ)

  • BoE raised rates by 0.5% to 4% and hinted that it would end rate hikes (FT)

  • Emerging market bond and equity funds posted record inflows in January (AX)

  • PE fundraising fell by over $100B in 2022 (PEI)

  • Stock buybacks tripled from a year ago to $132B in January (BBG)

  • Average US 30Y mortgage rate dropped below 6% for first time since September (CNBC)

  • Annuity sales hit a record $310.6B in 2022, surpassing 2008's high (CNBC)

  • US labor productivity rose 3% annualized in Q4 (RT)

  • US weekly jobless claims dropped to nine-month low (RT)

  • West Texas oil production and profits have hit record highs (AX)

  • Americans are withdrawing funds from their 401(k)s in record numbers (WSJ)

  • Over 100k US workers were laid off in January, with tech accounting for 41% of cuts (BBG)

  • US accounts for 1/5th of investments in Chinese AI firms (RT)

  • SEC asked Point72 and Citadel to search employees' personal phones for evidence of unapproved business communication (BBG)

  • Adani Group's top five companies' consolidated debt stands at $25.6B (includes double counting) (RT)

  • Hindenburg's bet against Adani Group has intrigued rival short sellers amid strict short-selling regulations in India (RT)

  • Deutsche Bank's CEO won't rule out job cuts (RT)

  • ChatGPT set record for fastest-growing user base (RT)

  • Pinterest cut ~150 jobs (BBG)

  • GM partnered with Netflix to show more EVs on screen (TC)

  • Adani lost a record $52B and Zuckerburg gained a record $12.5B in record-setting personal wealth moves this week (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • KKR’s non-binding offer for Telecom Italia’s network values the assets at ~$22B (BBG)

  • PE firm CD&R offered to buy investment adviser Focus Financial Partners for $4.1B (RT)

  • Blackstone agreed to buy insurance firm AIG’s $3.6B collateralized-loan obligation assets (BBG)

  • An affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management will raise its stake in the transmission unit of electric utility FirstEnergy by 30% to 49.9% for $3.5B (BBG)

  • Austrian energy and chemicals company OMV is exploring a sale of a multibillion-dollar portfolio of international oil and gas assets as it seeks to pull back from upstream production (BBG)

VC

  • UK neobank Zopa raised a $93M round at a $1B+ valuation led by inside investors (TC)

  • Triple Whale, a Shopify data and analytics platform, raised a $25M Series B led by NFX and Elephant (TC)

  • Digital banking platform Oxygen raised a $20M Series B led by inside investors (PRN)

  • Gradient, a startup building sustainable HVAC systems, raised an $18M Series A led by Sustainable Future Ventures and Ajax Strategies (BW)

  • Lavender, an AI-powered email marketing platform, raised a $13.2M Series A led by Norwest Venture Partners (TC)

  • Freightify, a vertical SaaS platform for freight forwarders, raised a $12M Series A led by Sequoia Capital India (TC)

  • Blockchain node management startup BlockJoy raised $12M from its seed and Series A rounds which were led by Gradient Ventures, Draper Dragon, and others (TC)

  • Penpot, an open source platform for designers and developers, raised a $12M Series A+ led by Decibel (TC)

  • AnswersNow, a platform for applied behavior analysis, raised an $11M Series A led by Left Lane Capital (PRN)

  • BloomX, a startup creating bio-mimicking tech to improve plant pollination, raised an $8M seed round led by Ahern Agribusiness (TC)

  • SalesRiver, an enterprise sales enablement platform for distributed sales teams, raised a $3.95M Series A led by Mucker Capital (PRN)

  • Rebar robotics firm Toggle raised a $3M Series A extension led by Tokyu Construction (TC)

  • Yobi, an AI-focused customer communications app for SMBs, raised a $2.37M seed round led by HRC 21/39 and IRA Capital (BW)

  • Upwardli, a startup offering inclusive credit building products for consumers new to credit, raised a $2M Series A led by Dundee Venture Capital (PRN)

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Indian conglomerate Adani Group likely bought into its own (since abandoned) $2.5B share sale (FRB)

  • Solar energy technology provider Nextracker is seeking to raise up to $535M in a US IPO (BBG)

  • Hesai Group, a Chinese developer of sensor technologies used in self-driving cars, plans to raise up to $171M in a US IPO (BBG)

Debt

  • Struggling retailer Bed Bath & Beyond missed bond interest payments worth $28M+ as it edges closer to bankruptcy (WSJ)

  • Adani Group entities made scheduled coupon payments of ~$24M on outstanding dollar-denominated bonds yesterday, and will release a credit report today (RT)

  • Billionaire Gautam Adani is in talks with creditors to prepay some loans backed by pledged shares as he seeks to restore confidence in the financial health of his Adani Group conglomerate (BBG)

Fundraising

  • MM PE firm Oakley Capital raised $3.1B for its Fund V (PEN)

  • Seed and early-stage focused Firebolt Ventures plans to raise $100M for its latest Firebolt Ventures V fund (DSA)

  • Woman-owned Buoyant Ventures raised $76M for its debut fund to back climate-tech startups and an additional $5.7M in co-investments (BBG)

Crypto Corner

  • DOJ is probing crypto-focused bank Silvergate Capital for fraud over FTX and Alameda dealings (BBG)

  • Coinbase surged 24% after its class-action securities suit was dismissed (CNBC)

  • Business intelligence firm MicroStrategy booked a $198M impairment charge on its Bitcoin holdings in Q4 (CD)

  • Russians are sending 'significant amounts of money' via crypto to help Ukraine (YH)

  • Charlie Munger believes US should follow in China’s footsteps and ban cryptocurrencies (CNBC)

Exec's Picks

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  • The Spectator published an interesting piece on how Jim Cramer went from a stock picking guru to the world's greatest inverse.

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