Voting-Implied Volatility

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Good Morning,

Market volatility picked up ahead of today's elections, on a day where banks are granting PTO for employees to vote.

Speaking of voting, GET OUT AND VOTE! 🇺🇸🇺🇸 

Automate your complicated business spend and expense allocation process with the leading fintech software in the alternative asset management space, StavPay.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 11/04/2024 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks slipped yesterday as traders brace for volatility and volume on today's elections 

    • Rates volatility hit its highest level in over a year 

Earnings

  • Palantir jumped 14% after beating Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and forecasting a strong Q4 thanks to unrelenting AI demand (CNBC

  • Marriott missed Q3 estimates and cut its FY profit forecast as weak travel in China offset strong group and international demand (RT

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Supermicro, Apollo  

    • Wednesday: Qualcomm, Arm, Novo Nordisk, CVS

    • Thursday: DraftKings, Airbnb, Rivian

  • Full calendar here

🇺🇸 Election Forecast

  • Election markets priced in a final ~56% chance of a Trump victory today.

  • Put your money where your mouth is! Get out and vote and bet the election while you're at it too.

Headline Roundup

  • Banks are granting PTO to employees to vote (RT)

  • CEOs are being sacked more quickly over poor stock performance (RT)

  • Wall Street frets as Big Tech AI CapEx tops $200B annually (FT)

  • Europe-focused hedge funds posted their largest monthly loss in one year (RT)

  • Equity funds saw their biggest weekly outflow in five weeks (RT)

  • Eurozone manufacturing contracted for a 28th-straight month (RT

  • German firms' hiring plans dropped to a post-Covid low (RT)

  • Blackstone targets new European markets in global wealth push (RT)

  • BlackRock becomes latest to file for Vanguard's ETF-mutual fund structure (FT)

  • Australian police raided PwC's Sydney office (RT)

  • Boeing workers voted to end a seven-week strike (CNBC)

  • Banco Sabadell sued PE firm Cerberus for ~$400M over soured RE deal (FT)

  • Franklin Templeton hit by further outflows amid Western probe (FT

  • OpenAI is in talks with California to become for-profit (BBG)

  • Dollar Tree CEO Rick Dreiling stepped down amid struggles (RT)

  • BNPL group Affirm launched in UK (FT)

  • Homebuyers are older than ever (CNBC)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Silver Lake and Bain Capital are among suitors for a minority stake in Intel's programmable chips business Altera, which Intel acquired for ~$17B in 2015

  • Canadian telecoms giant BCE agreed to acquire US-based Ziply Fiber for $3.6B

  • Stonepeak will take airfreight carrier ATSG private at a $3.1B EV

  • Blackstone is in advanced talks to acquire $2.2B-listed shopping center REIT Retail Opportunity Investments 

  • Australian power generation operator Zashvin will acquire an additional 33% stake in Australian coal mining JV Jellinbah from miner Anglo American for $1.1B

  • German construction firm GP Günter Papenburg plans to pursue a takeover of $1.2B-listed European steel producer Salzgitter 

  • UK insurer and asset manager M&G bought a 65% stake in European real estate investor BauMont

VC

  • Robotics AI startup Physical Intelligence raised a $400M round at a $2B valuation from Jeff Bezos, OpenAI, Thrive Capital and Lux Capital

  • DeepRoute.ai, a Chinese autonomous driving tech startup, raised $100M from an unidentified Chinese automaker

  • Cintoo, a cloud-based reality data management and collaboration solutions provider, raised a $42M Series B led by Partech

  • Andium, a remote-field monitoring and communications startup, raised a $21.7M Series B led by Aramco Ventures

  • Yazen Health, a Swedish obesity-focused healthcare platform, raised a $19.5M Series A led by Evli Growth Partners and Helsana HealthInvest

  • Conflux Technology, a heat transfer and additive manufacturing startup, raised a $11M Series B led by Breakthrough Victoria

  • Dutch PropTech startup iDWELL raised $10.6M in funding from Knight Capital

  • IOTA Software, an industrial and business data visualization software, raised a $10.4M Series A-2 led by Altira Group

  • Digital fund operation platform Fundcraft raised a $6.6M Series A extension led by 3VC and MiddleGame Ventures

  • Plato, a German AI-powered ERP platform for wholesalers, raised a $6.5M pre-seed round led by Cherry Ventures

  • Algebrik AI, a digital loan origination platform, raised a $4M Series A

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • India's Reliance Industries is planning a 2025 IPO its Reliance Jio telecom unit at a potential $100B+ valuation in what could be India's largest-ever listing

  • Middle Eastern grocer Lulu Retail upsized its Abu Dhabi IPO to $1.7B, UAE's largest IPO this year

  • Oman's state energy firm OQ plans to sell up to 49% of its methanol and LPG unit OQ Base Industries in a local IPO at a $1B to $1.5B valuation

  • Canadian women's clothing retailer Groupe Dynamite is preparing a local IPO

Debt

  • Credit investor GoldenTree agreed to buy an $872M portfolio of UK consumer loans

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Franchise Group, the owner of brands including The Vitamin Shoppe and Pet Supplies Plus, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

  • TGI Fridays is in talks with potential buyers after filing for Chapter 11

Fundraising

  • Shamrock Capital raised $1.6B across two new PE funds

  • Capital Dynamics closed its sixth flagship secondaries PE fund at $1.1B

  • Coatue is seeking to raise $1B for its flagship fund to invest in AI

  • BlueFive Capital is seeking to raise $1B for a permanent capital fund focused on EM financial services firms

Crypto Corner

  • Robinhood, Kraken, and Galaxy launched a global stablecoin pegged to dollar (RT)

  • a16z and Coinbase pledged ~$25M each to crypto super PAC Fairshake (BBG)

Exec’s Picks

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