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Mexico and Canada folded on US tariff threats, agreeing to boost border security to stave off tariffs. It's gonna be a wild four years for markets if such negotiations become the norm.

In other interesting new, US also ordered the creation of a sovereign wealth fund.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks closed lower despite cutting deep losses yesterday as US paused tariffs on Mexico and Canada

• Canada's TSX index closed 1.1% lower after it touched an ATH on Thursday 

  • The index pared its biggest one-day decline since August 

  • Traders raised odds of an emergency BoC rate cut to 30%

• Europe's Stoxx 600 dropped 0.9% in its worst day YTD

• US 2Y yields rose 5 bps to 4.25% on tariff-driven inflation fears

  • 2Y-30Y yield curve flattened to the most since early-December

• Venezuela 2Y dollar bonds topped 20¢ for the first time since July on US deal

• Gold hit a new ATH

• Oil prices closed at a one-month low

• Brazilian real rose for an eleventh-straight day versus dollar in its longest streak in 20 years

Earnings

• Palantir surged 23% after beating Q4 earnings estimates and offering better-than-expected FY guidance thanks to AI-driven growth (CNBC) 

• Tyson Foods beat Q1 earnings estimate as strong margins in its chicken business boosted growth (BRN) 

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Alphabet, AMD, Spotify, PayPal, Snap, Chipotle, Apollo

  • Wednesday: Qualcomm, Disney, Uber, Arm, Ford

  • Thursday: Amazon, Eli Lilly 

• Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

• US paused Mexico and Canada tariffs on border security agreement (CNBC)

• US ordered creation of a SWF, which could potentially buy TikTok (BBG)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent took over CFPB and froze all activity (WSJ)

• US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time since 2022 (BBG)

• Hedge funds dumped US stocks for a fifth-straight week (BBG)

• Hedge funds dumped everything but real estate stocks last week (RT)

• Investors plowed record cash into leveraged loan ETFs last week (BBG)

• Insurers pile into ABSs as annuity sales surge (BBG)

• European high yield default rate is set to hit its highest since 2008 (FT)

• China prepares opening bid to talk trade with US (WSJ)

• Bond dealers disagree over size of 30Y TIPS auctions (BBG)

• US frackers and Saudi officials say they won't drill more (WSJ)

• Anglo American CEO warned tariffs will push up cost of mining for years (FT)

• Trump says Musk is only acting with approval (RT)

• Corporate America cosies up to Musk as ties to Trump deepen (FT)

• Vanguard slashed fees by the most ever (BBG)

• Activist Saba Capital loses votes to control Baillie Gifford trusts (BBG)

• Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to offer Super Bowl betting (BBG)

• Samsung chair was cleared of fraud and stock manipulation (FT)

• Meta's investment in VR/AR is set to top $100B this year (FT)

• Climate change can wipe out $1.5T in US home values (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Medical device maker Becton Dickinson is considering divesting its life sciences unit at a $30B valuation amid pressure from activist Starboard Value

• Swiss private bank J. Safra Sarasin is exploring a potential acquisition of Denmark's Saxo Bank, which was last valued at $5.3B in 2017

• Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners agreed to take aircraft parts and services supplier Triumph Group private in a $3B deal, including debt

• The owners of Shutters on the Beach and Casa del Mar are exploring a capital raise that could value the Santa Monica hotels at $700M

• Mirae Asset Global Investments is exploring a sale of the Hyatt Regency Waikiki for $650M

• Japan Hotel REIT Investment is in talks to acquire the Hyatt Regency hotel in Tokyo from KKR and Gaw Capital Partners for $640M

• Singapore insurer Great Eastern canceled its $250M acquisition of Malaysian lender AMMB's insurance businesses

• 3D printing solutions startup Stratasys raised a $120M equity investment from Fortissimo Capital

• Major Greek lender Piraeus Financial is in talks to acquire Greek insurer National Insurance from CVC

• Airbus is in talks with French aerospace company Thales and Italy's Leonardo to create a space and satellite business to compete with SpaceX

• Indian financial services firm Equirus Group will merge its family office business with Credence Family Office to create a $2.1B AUM wealth management firm

VC

• Riot, a cybersecurity product suite for employees, raised a $30M Series B led by Left Lane Capital

• Lula, a platform connecting property managers with maintenance professionals, raised a $28M Series A led by PeakSpan Capital

• Jump, an AI solutions for financial advisors, raised a $20M Series A led by Battery Ventures

• Enduro Genetics, a Danish startup lowering the cost of biomanufacturing, raised a $12.4M Series A led by Supernova Invest, NOON Ventures, and Sandwater

• Semeris, a UK finance-focused legal AI company, raised a $4.3M round led by Puma Growth Partners

• Hero, an all-in-one productivity app with an AI assistant, raised a $4M seed round from execs at Instacart, Dropbox, Meta, and more

• Invary, a runtime integrity solutions provider, raised a $3.5M seed round from SineWave Ventures, Flyover Capital, and more

• Gallabox, a no-code conversational platform, raised a $3.5M round led by FUSE

• Myne, a UAE wealth and asset tracking platform, raised a $2M pre-seed round led by Scene Holding

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• French drugmaker Sanofi will buy back a $3.1B stake from cosmetics giant L'Oreal

• Malaysia's MMC Port Holdings is preparing a local IPO that could raise over $1.3B

• Activist Elliott built a 5% stake in UK engineering conglomerate Smiths Group ahead of their break-up announcement

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• A UK court approved defaulted Chinese builder Sino-Ocean's $5.6B debt restructuring plan

• Administrators of bankrupt Austrian real estate company Signa Prime Selection are preparing to launch the sale of the Vienna Park Hyatt and other luxury properties for up to $380M

• Retail brand operator Liberated Brands, who recently operated Quiksilver, Billabong, and others, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Fundraising

• Ares raised $2.25B from wealthy individuals for an open-ended European private credit fund

• Real estate investment firm Heitman closed its third real estate debt fund at $806M

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• MicroStrategy broke a twelve-week Bitcoin-buying streak

• Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• David Colton wrote a great piece on the ten things to know for raising children amid wealth.

• Take a look at the major asset class performances for the first month of 2025.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

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