Undervalued Underwriting?

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Litquidity Capital
August 22, 2025

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Good Morning,

US named its first chief design officer, startup valuations are blowing past historic IPO market caps, BlackRock recommended raising exposure to hedge funds, SEC named a military judge as enforcement director, and strong market debuts are raising questions over cautious bank IPO underwriting.

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Before The Bell

As of 8/21/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks slipped further yesterday sour earnings and weak employment data

    • S&P fell for a fifth-straight day 

  • Canada's TSX index hit an ATH after gaining 13% YTD

  • UK's FTSE 100 hit a third-straight ATH

  • China's Shanghai Composite index closed at its highest since 2015

    • China's CSI 300 index hit its highest since October

    • China 30Y yield rose to 2.12% to a YTD high

  • Japan yields hit fresh multi-decade highs on fiscal and inflation woes

    • Japan 30Y yields notes rose to 3.18%, approaching its 3.2% July ATH

    • Japan 20Y yield touched 2.655%, its highest since 1999

    • Japan 10Y yield touched 1.61%, its highest since 2008

  • EM currencies fell for a sixth-straight day to a three-week low

    • Taiwan dollar fell for a sixth-straight day to its weakest since May

  • Coffee hit a two-month high

Earnings

  • Walmart missed Q2 earnings due to higher insurance claims and legal charges but beat on revenue and raised FY guidance despite rising tariff costs, citing early inventory builds, a 46% jump in global advertising, and 25% e-commerce growth (CNBC)

  • Zoom beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and Q3 and FY guidance on accelerating revenue growth, continued expansion of its enterprise business, and surging AI adoption (INV)

  • Workday beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but warned of pressure in education and government amid DOGE cuts (CNBC)

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • God forbid the speech is delayed past noon.

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Headline Roundup

  • US and EU announced trade details including autos and pharma (CNBC)

  • DOJ urged J Pow to remove governor Cook amid investigation (BBG)

  • Meta poached key Apple AI exec despite hiring freeze (BBG)

  • US and Canada will hold trade talks soon (BBG)

  • US named Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia as first chief design officer (BBG)

  • Startup valuations blast beyond historic IPO market caps (WSJ)

  • BlackRock advised raising exposure to hedge funds (RT)

  • Private credit defaults are at 5.4% (BBG)

  • Strong market debuts raise questions over cautious IPO underwriting (RT)

  • Goldman traders say it's time to buy dip in momentum stocks (BBG)

  • Secondaries may be a primary target for 401(k)s (SI)

  • Mutual funds shed $432B in assets as ETFs take over (BBG)

  • Foreigners' Japan stocks buying hit an 11-year high (BBG)

  • India becomes rare green IPO Hub with $4B of deals (BBG)

  • Chinese dim sum bond issuance on track for record year (FT)

  • Warburg Pincus returned a record $10B to investors this year (BBG)

  • Canada's OMERS gained 2.2% in H1 despite weak US dollar (BBG)

  • Pinnacle Financial and Synovus named execs for new combined bank (RT)

  • Yuan short bets hit a three-month high as economic woes weigh (RT) 

  • Colombia local bonds saw a record selloff after junk downgrade (BBG)

  • SEC named a senior military judge as enforcement director (RT)

  • FanDuel and CME partnered to launch sports-prediction markets (BBG)

  • Co-founder of a fintech as Aspiration Partners pleaded guilty to fraud (RT)

  • US manufacturing increased by the most in three years (BBG)

  • US could meet critical minerals needs from mining waste (FT)

  • US is weighing using $2B in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals (RT)

  • US will buy cobalt for $500M for defense stockpiles (RT)

  • US and China are thwarting India's shot at $7T solar prize (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Tech-focused PE firm Thoma Bravo agreed to take-private HR software provider Dayforce for $12.3B, including debt at a 32.4% premium

  • Italian investment bank Mediobanca shareholders rejected a $7.9B proposal to acquire Generali-owned Banca Generali

  • French dairy giant Lactalis agreed to acquire New Zealand co-operative Fonterra's global consumer and associated business for $2.24B

  • Blackstone agreed to acquire electrical equipment services provider Shermco from Gryphon Investors for $1.6B, including debt

  • PE firm American Industrial Partners agreed to acquire International Paper's fibers business for $1.5B

  • Condiments maker McCormick will raise its stake in its Mexico JV from 50% to 75% for $750M

  • KJR Management, a Japanese real estate unit of KKR, emerged as a lead bidder to buy Nissan's global HQ in Japan for $610M

VC

  • AI startup Anthropic is close to raising a $10B round at a potential $170B valuation from ICONIQ Capital, TPG, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Spark Capital and Menlo Ventures, QIA, GIC, and more

  • Ontic, a software platform for connected security intelligence, raised a $230M Series C led by KKR

  • Self-driving software startup Nuro raised a $97M Series E extension at a $6B valuation from Baillie Gifford, Icehouse Ventures, Kindred Ventures, Uber, and Nvidia

  • German unmanned weapons systems startup Stark raised a $62M round at a $500M valuation led by Sequoia

  • NGU Sports Lighting, a provider of LED lighting installations for sports and recreation venues, received a $60M investment from Lieef

  • Wellth, a digital health solution combining daily motivation with behavior change strategies, raised a $36M Series C led by Mercato Partners

  • Collaborative coding startup Zed raised a $32M Series B led by Sequoia

  • VR flight training startup Loft Dynamics raised a $24M Series B led by Friedkin

  • General Fusion, a Canadian nuclear fusion startup, raised a $22M round from  Chrysalix Venture Capital, Segra Capital Management, and others

  • Develop Health, a GenAI-powered benefits verification and prior authorization platform, raised a $14.3M Series A led by Wing Venture Capital

  • Definite, a startup reducing the time it takes to set up an analytics stack, raised a $10M seed round led by Costanoa Ventures

  • AI-based clinical intelligence platform for post-acute care Cascala Health raised an $8.6M seed round led by Flare Capital Partners and Eniac Ventures

  • Verdata, a commercial risk data and analytics company, raised an $8M Series A led by Continental Investors

  • Agenda Hero, a startup building an AI platform to automate calendar work, raised a $5.6M seed round led by Upfront Ventures

IPOs / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • German prosthetics maker Ottobock is weighing an IPO at an over $7B valuation

  • SMG Swiss Marketplace, the operator of property portal ImmoScout24b, plans to raise $1.2B in a Swiss IPO

  • E-commerce reseller firm Pattern will file for an IPO

Debt

  • Goldman Sachs committed a $6B debt package to support Thoma Bravo's $12.3B LBO of HR software provider Dayforce

  • Lenders including HPS and Apollo are snapping up over $2.2B of hung bank debt tied to an acquisition by Apollo-backed Canadian auto parts maker ABC Technologies

  • Swedish BNPL fintech Klarna secured a $1.6B warehouse facility from Spanish lender Santander

  • University of California shelved a $1.5B munis sale

  • Blackstone is increasing its private credit facility for Aligned Data Centers to over $1B

  • Spirit Airlines raised a $275M credit facility to avert a credit card payments disruption

  • Samsung-backed European startup chipmaker Axelera AI is in talks to raise over $175M in financing

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Medical transportation firm Modivcare filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in an effort to shed $1.1B of debt

  • Biotech Sarepta Therapeutics struck a deal with investors to restructure $700M of debt

  • Investors of a $705M commercial-mortgage bond tied to Manhattan's Worldwide Plaza building are at risk of losing $488M after the property's appraisal was slashed amid a tenants departure

  • Fashion rental platform Rent the Runway will hand over control to Temasek's private credit spinoff Aranda Principal Strategies as part of a debt-for-equity swap to trim debt

  • UK took control of Speciality Steel UK, one of UK's largest steelworks after a firm owned by founder Sanjeev Gupta was forced into liquidation

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • PE firm Leonard Green raised $2.3B for its debut secondaries fund.

  • Blue Owl Capital is seeking to raise $1.5B in a sale of minority GP stakes in private market managers HPS, Clearlake Capital, and Golub Capital

  • Motilal Oswal Alternates, the PE arm of Indian wealth manager Motilal Oswal Group, raised $800M for its fifth PE fund

  • PGIM, the asset management arm of Prudential Financial, raised $619M for its second MM energy-focused private credit fund

  • Private markets investor Hamilton Lane anchored GI Partners' continuation fund for data center solutions firm Flexential

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Core Scientific fretted about raising cash before CoreWeave deal

  • Kanye announced a 'new economy, built on chain'

  • Peter Thiel leads pack of investors piling into Ether

  • China is considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage

  • Asia family offices are seeking more exposure to crypto

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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