Two Different Worlds in VC

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Litquidity Capital
July 16, 2025

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Good Morning,

US banks saw a rebound in dealmaking and trading, inflation data caused markets to rethink rate cut bets, Jamie Dimon warned on Fed independence, investors are piling into US tech stocks at the fastest pace in sixteen years, and AI startups are seeing a funding surge while most VCs are struggling to raise.

Investors at top funds are using Tenzing MEMO to get up to speed faster on over 6,000 public companies. Real-time research, topical briefings, intelligent Q&A, financial news, event transcripts, and SEC filings, and more…all at your finger tips. Check 'em out.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 7/15/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks closed mostly lower yesterday as traders parsed crucial inflation data and bank earnings for clues on the impact of tariffs

    • VIX index fell below its long-run average to a three-year low

    • Traders now see 44 bps of Fed rate cuts this year (less than two cuts), while slashing odds of a September rate cut that was fully priced in before the CPI read

  • US 30Y yield climbed past 5% for the first time since early June

  • US 10Y munis yields rose 8 bps to 3.25% in their worst day since April's Liberation Day

  • Dollar hit a 15-week high against yen 

Earnings

  • JPMorgan beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on strong trading and IB, with IB fees rising 7% as tariff uncertainty cleared; the firm highlighted US economic resilience and raised FY net interest income guidance (CNBC)

  • Citigroup beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, with banking revenue up 18% despite loan hedge losses; credit costs rose 16% due to a weaker economic outlook; the firm highlighted progress in its transformation plan and announced a dividend increase after the latest Fed stress test (CNBC)

  • Wells Fargo beat Q2 profit estimates but lowered FY net interest income forecast due to weakness in its markets business; their CEO now sees greater growth opportunities with the recent lifting of its $1.95T asset cap (CNBC)

  • BlackRock beat Q2 earnings estimates but missed on revenue as a $52B redemption from an Asian client and weaker inflows led to its worst earnings-day drop in over a decade, though their push into private markets has raised investor expectations (BBG)

  • State Street beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, but higher expenses and a drop in net interest income disappointed investors; outflows in assets under custody also raised concerns (BBG)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, AMSL, United Airlines,  Progressive, Johnson & Johnson

    • Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo

    • Friday: Truist, American Express, Charles Schwab, 3M

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Very interesting…

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Headline Roundup

  • US CPI rose 2.7% YoY by the most in five months (CNBC)

  • Bessent said J Pow should leave board when chair term ends (BBG)

  • Trump said Bessent is not top Fed chair candidate (BBG)

  • Investors seek protection from risk of J Pow's ouster (RT)

  • Jamie Dimon warned on Fed independence as Trump pressures J Pow (WSJ)

  • Jamie Dimon says rush into private credit may have peaked (BBG)

  • US banks say consumers are 'healthy' despite economic uncertainty (FT)

  • US banking giants reap gains from dealmaking rebound, trading bump (RT)

  • Direct listings resurface as private firms weigh skipping IPOs (BBG)

  • Investors pile into US tech stocks at the fastest pace in 16 years (FT)

  • Bond sellers speed up deals to dodge Trump-fueled market swings (BBG)

  • LPs pick debt financing over secondaries as liquidity pressure mount (ION)

  • US AI startups see funding surge while VCs struggle to raise (RT)

  • Wall Street sees risks to US relying too much on T-bill issuances (BBG)

  • Catastrophe bond sales hit record as insurers offload climate risks (FT)

  • Recovery from distressed debt swaps beats bankruptcy (BBG)

  • Private Credit can bring risk along with liquidity to CRE finance (WSJ)

  • Nvidia's resumption of AI chips to China is part of rare earths talks (RT)

  • UK will set up an IPO task force in bid to attract listings (BBG)

  • The SEC fired the head of accounting watchdog PCAOB (RT)

  • Anthropic will launch Claude Financial Services (BBG)

  • Citi plans 'Strata Elite' credit card to rival Amex Platinum (BBG)

  • Chinese buyers spent 83% more on US homes this year (BBG)

  • SpaceX Dragon returned Axiom-4 crew to Earth from the ISS (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Investment firm Aquarian Holdings is in exclusive talks to acquire $2.8B-listed US life insurance company Brighthouse Financial 

  • A consortium led by European developers Pandox and Eiendomsspar made a firm offer to acquire Ireland's Dalata Hotel Group for ~$1.6B

  • Malaysia’s state-owned fund manager Permodalan Nasional Berhad is exploring a sale of its toll road unit Projek Lintasan Kota in a potential ~$705M deal

  • Apple will invest $500M into rare earths miner MP Materials 

  • The owners of UK soccer club Burnley FC agreed to acquire Spanish soccer club RCD Espanyol from its Chinese backers and are seeking to raise ~$200M to support their new multi-club strategy

  • Discovery Silver Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire Barrick Mining's last Canadian gold mine

VC

  • Musk's SpaceX is planning an insider share sale at a ~$400B valuation

  • Thinking Machines Lab, the pre-product pre-revenue AI startup founded by OpenAI's ex-CTO Mira Murati, raised a $2B seed round at a $12B post-money valuation led by a16z and including Nvidia and Jane Street 

  • OpenEvidence, a medical search and AI platform for physicians, raised a $210M Series B at a $3.5B valuation led by GV and Kleiner Perkins

  • Compliance tech platform FundApps raised a significant growth equity investment at a ~$500M valuation from FTV Capital

  • Generative video startup Moonvalley raised an $84M round led by General Catalyst

  • Virtru, a data-centric security company, raised $50M in funding at a $500M valuation led by ICONIQ

  • CertifID, a wire fraud protection platform for real estate, raised a $47.5M Series C led by Centana Growth Partners

  • Panacea Financial, a fintech startup providing financial services to doctors, raised a $37M Series B extension from Valar Ventures

  • NetBox Labs, a startup providing a platform for network and infrastructure management, raised a $35M Series B led by NGP Capital

  • XTEND, an AI-powered tactical autonomous robotic systems startup, raised a $30M Series B extension led by Aliya Capital Partners and Protego Ventures

  • AI-based ERP startup Nominal raised a $20M Series A led by Next47

  • Polimorphic, an AI company modernizing local government services, raised an $18.6M Series A led by General Catalyst

  • Datavations, an AI-powered retail analytics company, raised a $17M Series A led by Forestay Capital

  • Tavrn, a legal tech platform, raised a $15M Series A led by Left Lane Capital

  • Felt, a cloud-native Geographic Information Systems platform, raised a $15M funding round led by Energize Capital

  • People OS startup Ordio raised a $14M Series A led by 3VC

  • Crypto-integrated business banking platform Dakota raised a $12.5M Series A led by CoinFund

  • ParadeDB, an open-source Postgres extension for full-text search and analytics, raised a $12M Series A led by Craft Ventures

  • Rwazi, a startup helping companies with consumer insights / intelligence, raised a $12M Series A led by Bonfire Ventures

  • Laka, a European green mobility insurance company, raised a $10.4M Series B led by Shift4Good and MS&AD Ventures

  • IntuigenceAI, an AI-based engineer platform, raised a $10M seed round led by Innovation Endeavors

  • Collate, an open-source project for data intelligence, raised a $10M Series A led by Venrock

  • Callidus Legal AI, an AI platform that automating litigation workflows, raised $10M in funding led by Cervin Ventures

  • Embedded accounting platform Layer raised a $6.6M seed round led by Emergence Capital

  • APFusion, a B2B marketplace and SaaS for the auto salvage industry, raised a $6.5M seed round led by Left Lane Capital and Bedrock Capital

  • Auriga Space, a startup launching rockets off of magnets, raised a $6M seed round led by OTB Ventures

  • Covenant, an AI law firm for private market investors, raised a $4M seed round led by Flybridge Capital Partners

IPOs / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is considering acquiring another 5% of Indian lender Yes Bank for $1.1B

  • EQT-backed Indira IVF Hospital is reviving plans for a $408M India IPO

  • Global flexible workspace manager The Executive Centre is planning a $300M India IPO

  • B Capital Group-backed AI surgical firm Carlsmed is seeking to raise ~$107M at a $425M valuation in a US IPO

  • UK's Starling Bank is weighing a US IPO amid US growth plans

  • Activist hedge fund Elliott built a sizable stake in Global Payments as the payment processing group looks to win back investors after its $24B acquisition of Worldpay caused shares to plunge to a 10-year low

SPAC

  • Cantor Equity Partners 1 is nearing a deal with Adam Back, founder of crypto trading group Blockstream Capital, to buy ~$4B in Bitcoin with backing from Cantor Fitzgerald and external investors

Debt 

  • Bulgaria sold $3.7B in Eurobonds following credit rating upgrades linked to its planned eurozone entry next year

  • Bank of America and other lenders are preparing a $2.8B debt package to support Stonepeak Partners' $5.7B acquisition of a 50% stake in grocery supply chain firm IFCO Group

  • Ares-backed Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurants is seeking to raise $400M in private credit and growth capital to refinance debt

  • Canada's GA Global Funding is in talks to raise $365M in a loonie-denominated bond sale

  • Godrej Seeds and Genetics, a unit of Indian conglomerate Godrej, is considering a $290M bond issuance

  • Portuguese sports club Sporting Lisbon plans to raise over $117M in a bond sale

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Austrian real estate tycoon Rene Benko was charged with insolvency fraud following the collapse of his $27B Signa property empire in 2023

  • Struggling UK utility Thames Water is preparing for a possible state rescue if creditor talks fail

  • Chuck E. Cheese-owner CEC Entertainment is in talks to raise ~$600M in equity from existing investors after failing to secure junk bond funding to cover upcoming payments

  • Partners Group-backed German toy maker Schleich is in talks to restructure debt that could transfer control to creditors including Investec, H.I.G., and Blackstone

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • LaSalle Investment Management, the investment unit of real estate brokerage JLL, raised ~$582M for a targeted $1.3B European real estate credit fund

  • Energy sector investor Pontem Energy Capital hit a first close for its second fund targeting $250M

  • Italian PE firm Clessidra is targeting $175M for a new fund focused on SMEs in the agri-food sector

  • The Chainsmokers' VC firm Mantis raised $100M for its latest fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Standard Chartered become the first global systemic bank to offer spot crypto trading

  • Citigroup is looking to issue its own stablecoin to smooth payments

  • DOJ dropped its case against Polymarket

  • Congress 'crypto week' hit a bump after voting against first of three bills

  • Bitcoin chases American dream in norm-shattering mortgage push

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

The above is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial instrument. Bitcoin Depot is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Bitcoin Depot to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments

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