Trump vs The Fed

Author

Litquidity Capital
August 27, 2025

In partnership with

Good Morning,

Trump's Fed governor firing is headed to the courts, US is eyeing further stakes in defense firms, hedge funds are short volatility, Cracker Barrel scrapped plans for a new logo, and in the most important market news of all, Taylor Swift got engaged to Travis Kelce :/

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 8/26/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks settled higher yesterday as investors brushed of Trump's latest spat with the Fed

  • France's CAC 40 index is down 3% this week amid political woes 

  • Global long-term bonds slumped on various inflation, spending, central bank independence, and political concerns 

    • US 5Y-30Y yield curve steepened to the most since 2021 on Fed independence concerns

    • France 10Y yield climbed to 3.53%, approaching its post-Eurozone crisis high set in March

    • France-Germany 10Y spread climbed to 80 bps to its highest since last year's political crisis

  • Rare earth prices hit a two-year high on China export controls

  • Bitcoin slipped to a seven-week low

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Nvidia, Kohl's, Crowdstrike, HP, Snowflake

    • Thursday: TD Bank Group, Best Buy, DICK's, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General

    • Friday: Alibaba

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • How will this affect the yield curve?

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • Fed governor Lisa Cook will sue to keep job (RT)

  • Trump's Fed gamble risks pushing bond rates even higher (BBG)

  • US hinted at stakes in defense firms after Intel deal (BBG)

  • US renewable investments fell 36% in H1 (BBG)

  • Corporate America's buoyant tone is at odds with Wall Street angst (BBG)

  • Hedge funds are shorting the VIX by most since 2022 (BBG)

  • Europe's IPO market prepares to bounce back from tariff turmoil (BBG)

  • French firms are raising new debt amid political risk (BBG)

  • Canada's only major IPO of 2025 is off to a rough start (BBG)

  • India slowly opens up banking sector to foreign investors (FT)

  • EU rejected Trump's claim of unfair digital rules (RT)

  • Illegal betting sites took 70% of Europe's betting / casino sales in 2024 (BBG)

  • America is on the cusp of a new steel age (WSJ)

  • Cracker Barrel scrapped plans for a new logo (CNBC) 

  • Taylor Swift engagement ignites bets on Super Bowl and a baby (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • PetroChina proposed buying three natural gas storage companies from state-owned China National Petroleum for $5.6B

  • Major shareholder Think Investments came out against Blackstone's proposed take-private of $1.6B-listed information services company TaskUs on valuation concerns

  • PE firm Carlyle agreed to acquire software maker Intelliflo from Invesco in a $200M deal

  • Italian eye-wear giant EssilorLuxottica is exploring a deal to increase its stake in Japanese optics giant Nikon from 9% to 20%

  • Spain's Telefonica is considering a takeover bid for Zegona-backed Vodafone Spain

  • PE firm TPG will acquire Irth Solutions, an enterprise software firm for critical infrastructure, from Blackstone

  • Abu Dhabi investment firm Lunate is set to take a minority stake in hedge fund Brevan Howard in a milestone agreement following Brevan's foray into Abu Dhabi 

  • Apple held internal talks about acquiring AI startups Perplexity and Mistral 

VC

  • Prediction market platform Polymarket raised a strategic investment from Donald Trump Jr's 1789 Capital; the firm was recently reportedly valued at $1B

  • AI-native CRM startup Attio raised a $52M Series B led by GV 

  • Blue Water Autonomy, a startup designing and building unmanned ships for defense, raised a $50M Series A led by GV

  • Kasa, a tech-driven hospitality management startup, raised $40M in funding led by SLW

  • OpenLight, a startup designing custom chips for photonic applications, raised a $34M Series A led by Xora Innovation and Capricorn Investment Group

  • Eyebot, a startup offering a 90-second vision test, raised a $20M Series A led by General Catalyst

  • Splight, a grid technology company, raised a $12.4M funding round led by Blue Bear Capital

  • Barti Software, an AI-powered EHR and practice management platform for eye care practices, raised a $12M Series A led by Five Elms Capital

  • Qunova Computing, a Korean quantum algorithm developer, raised a $10M Series A from GS Ventures, Korea Development Bank, and more

  • AI-powered logistics orchestration platform Nauta raised a $7M seed round led by Construct Capital and Predictive

  • Payments infrastructure platform Kira raised a $6.7M seed round led by Blockchange Ventures, Vamos Ventures, Stellar Blockchain, and more

  • Enmovil, an enterprise supply chain planning platform, raised a $6M Series A led by Sorin Investments

  • AiGent, a developer of AI-driven distributed power plants, raised a $6M seed round led by Zero Infinity Partners and CIV

  • OSW, an Australian solar distribution platform, raised $5.5M in financing from SparkEdge Capital

  • Pageport, a company building an AI-first CRM for financial advisors, raised a $3.3M round from 2048 Ventures and Matchstick Ventures

  • Previse Systems, a provider of next-gen energy trading and risk management software, raised a growth round from Lightrock

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Swedish BNPL fintech Klarna is seeking a $13B-$14B valuation in its US IPO; the firm was valued at $45B in 2021

  • Tekscend Photomask, a Japanese manufacturer of photomasks for chipmaking, is seeking a $2B valuation in its Japan IPO

  • Mercedes-Benz' pension sold its entire stake in Japan's Nissan for $325M

  • TPG-backed Indian shadow lender SK Finance shelved plans for a $183M India IPO amid low demand despite lowering its valuation

  • Mubadala-backed Chinese biotech Ignis Therapeutics is weighing a Hong Kong IPO

  • Activist hedge fund Fivespan acquired a stake in the New York Times

  • Austrian crypto exchange Bitpanda is considering a listing but 'not in London' 

SPAC / SPV

  • Trump Media and Crypto.com agreed to a $6.4B deal with Yorkville Acquisition Corp. to create a crypto treasury company focused on CRO tokens

Debt

  • Indonesia's SWF Danatara is seeking $3B in a patriot bond sale at below-market yields

  • Chinese Big Tech giant Baidu is weighing another $560M dim sum bond sale

  • Ugandan conglomerate Madhvani Group is in talks with Cerberus Capital Management for a $190M private credit loan to fund its acquisition of distressed Indian glass bottle maker Hindustan National Glass & Industries

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • AT&T agreed to acquire spectrum licenses from broadband communication company EchoStar for $23B to help keep the firm out of bankruptcy and fend off regulatory concerns

  • BlackRock, Franklin Advisors, and Nuveen Asset Management threatened to pull out of a $6.4B deal meant to cut debt of Puerto Rico's bankrupt power utility

  • A court-appointed adviser said a revised bid by Elliott-affiliate Amber Energy topped Gold Reserve's offer in the latest bidding round to purchase the parent company of Citgo Petroleum

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Crescent Capital plans to raise $3B for a multi-asset private credit continuation fund for debt originated in its seventh mezzanine $4.6B vintage from 2017 

  • Insurer / asset manager Eldridge Capital Management is seeking $1B for new PE financing fund

  • Crowdsourcing hedge fund Numerai raised a $500M commitment from JPMorgan Asset Management

  • Abu Dhabi-based BlueFive Capital and the PE arm China's CICC Capital plan to set up a fund to back Chinese companies expanding in the Middle East

  • Australia's largest pension fund AustralianSuper will increase PE allocation with ~10 new GP relationships 

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Biotechs are turning to crypto to boost stock prices

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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