Trump Shoots the Messenger

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Litquidity Capital
August 04, 2025

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Good Morning,

Markets tumbled from record highs on Friday after Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner and a Fed governor's resignation exacerbated worries from a poor jobs report.

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Before The Bell

As of 8/1/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks tumbled on Friday as weak jobs data, new tariffs, a Fed governor resignation, and Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner incited a sell-off

    • Traders fully priced in two 25 bps rate cuts for this year 

    • Traders boosted odds of a September rate cut from 40% to 90%

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 1.8% in in its worst day since April

    • Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index is rallying 34% YTD to trade at its highest since 2008

  • Canada's TSX index fell for a third-straight day in its sharpest decline since April 

  • US Treasury yields fell across the curve

    • Short-term yields posted their biggest drop since late-2023

    • US 2Y yield dropped 29 bps to 3.7%

    • US 2Y-10Y yield curve widened over 10 bps in the biggest move since April

  • Global investment-grade spreads hit the lowest since 2007

  • Dollar had its worst day since since April 21

  • Euro fell 2.8% for its worst week since 2022 on the US-EU trade deal 

  • Bitcoin fell to a three-week low after a record-breaking July

Earnings

  • ExxonMobil topped Q2 estimates as its highest output in 25 years softened the impact of lower oil prices, though net income fell 23% as it seeks to cut $4.5B in costs by 2030 (CNBC)

  • Chevron beat Q2 estimates despite a 44% drop in earnings due to lower oil prices; the firm expects their recent $53B Hess acquisition to boost earnings by year-end amid a 38% drop in its production business (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir

    • Tuesday: Pfizer, AMD, Caterpillar, Supermicro, BP, Rivian, Snap

    • Wednesday: Uber, McDonald's, AppLovin, Shopify, Novo Nordisk, DraftKings

    • Thursday: Eli Lilly, Celsius, Vistra, Sony

  • Mag 7 earnings may be behind us, but we still have another packed week with investors eyeing outlook and sentiment from major bellwethers. Check out the full calendar here .

Prediction Markets

  • Odds of a September rate cut spiked on Friday after a pessimistic jobs report and worrisome politics in DC.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • Fed governor Adriana Kugler resigned (CNBC)

  • Trump fired BLS commissioner after sour jobs data (CNBC)

  • Wall St and Silicon Valley ride high as tariffs hit Main Street (FT)

  • M&A sees busiest week since 2021 in unusually busy summer (WSJ)

  • US saw slowest jobs growth since Covid as data revised down (CNBC)

  • Biggest job revisions since Covid expose pitfall of economic data (BBG)

  • US manufacturing contracted at fastest pace in nine months (BBG)

  • Consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high (BBG)

  • BoE may cut rates despite spike in inflation (BBG)

  • Investors are rethinking US market supremacy (RT)

  • US companies deny record number of shareholder votes (FT)

  • Goldman warned of complacency as global spreads hit 2007 lows (BBG)

  • EM funds adjust bets as 'sell the dollar' trade loses appeal (BBG)

  • European firms are most worried about FX volatility in four years (BBG)

  • China will crack down on 'herd behavior' in emerging sector investment (RT)

  • Secret Musk-backer Vy Capital closed to outside investors after windfall (FT)

  • Barclays exited the Net Zero Banking Alliance (BBG)

  • Big tech is spending $344B on AI CapEx this year (BBG)

  • Even top earners are falling behind on credit card payments (BBG)

  • Poorest US workers hit hardest by slowing wage growth (FT)

  • Blackstone office reopened today one week after tragic shooting (BBG)

  • NYC experienced a 3.0 magnitude earthquake (BBG)

  • FBI redacted Trump's name in Epstein files over 'privacy reasons' (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management is set to buy into Froneri, the world's second-largest ice cream manufacturer, at a $17.4B enterprise value by leading a continuation vehicle established by PAI Partners

  • Starbucks shortlisted Boyu Capital, Carlyle, EQT, FountainVest Partners, KKR, Hillhouse Investment, Primavera Capital, JD.com, and Tencent to bid for a stake in its China business, which could be valued at ~$10B

  • Singapore SWF GIC emerged as the leading bidder for a minority stake in a Europe's MasOrange and Zegona Communications' fiber-optic broadband JV, which could be valued at $7B-$8B, including debt

  • PE firm Advent International agreed to acquire UK scientific instruments maker Spectris in a sweetened deal valued at $6.4B, including debt in UK's largest takeover this year

  • Meta will offload $2B in data center assets to bring in outside investors to fund CapEx

  • European PE firm Cinven acquired a majority stake in UK tech firm Smart Communications from investment firm Accel-KKR for $1.8B

  • A consortium of investors including General Atlantic and Oakley Capital are nearing a deal to acquire French CRM platform Brevo from Partech Partners and Bridgepoint Group for $1.1B

  • Air taxi eVOTL company Joby Aviation is weighing acquisition of $300M-listed helicopter ride-share operator Blade

  • UK alternative investment firm ICG agreed to acquire three UK regional airports for $265M

  • PE firm Freeman Spogli & Co. agreed to acquire Philz Coffee, a coffee chain taking SF by storm, for $145M

  • German software giant SAP agreed to acquire HR software firm SmartRecruiters, which was was last valued at $1.5B in 2021

  • IB boutique Perella Weinberg agreed to acquire PE advisory firm Devon Park Advisors

  • SWF Qatar Investment Authority is in talks to acquire majority stake in a Milan property from Kering, which bought the asset for $1.5B in 2024

  • Disney's ESPN will acquire rights to Redzone, NFL Network, fantasy football, and more from NFL in exchange for an equity stake in ESPN

VC

  • OpenAI raised $8.3B at a $300B valuation led by Dragoneer Investment Group

  • AI data infrastructure startup Vast Data is in talks to raise capital at a $30B valuation from Nvidia, Alphabet's CapitalG, and other VC and PE firms 

  • French AI start-up Mistral is in talks to raise $1B at a $10B valuation from Abu Dhabi's AI fund MGX and other VCs

  • Anaconda, an AI company focused on open source tech, raised a $150M+ Series C led by Insight Partners

  • Noma Security, a unified platform for AI and agent security, raised a $100M Series B led by Evolution Equity Partners

  • SiMa.ai, a startup building purpose-built hardware and software solutions for 'Physical AI,' raised an $85M round led by Maverick Capital

  • QI Tech, a financial infrastructure provider for the services industry, raised a $63M Series B extension led by General Atlantic

  • Stable, a layer 1 blockchain network powered by USDT, raised a $28M seed round led by Bitfinex and Hack VC

  • MyPrize, a multiplayer online social casino, raised a $21M round at a $250M valuation from Dragonfly, Boxcars Ventures, and others

  • Subzero Labs, a startup building a blockchain for 'internet scale decentralized apps,' raised a $20M round led by Pantera Capita

  • HR tech startup Tako raised an $18M round led by Ribbit Capital and a16z

  • Echo, an enterprise software startup eliminating infrastructure vulnerabilities, raised a $15M seed round led by Notable Capital and Hyperwise Ventures

  • AI-based financial data platform Daloopa raised a $13M round from Pavilion Capital

  • STAN, an Indian social gaming platform, raised an $8.5M round led by Google AI Futures Fund

  • SixSense, a Singaporean AI platform to predict and detect chip defects on semiconductor production lines, raised an $8.5M Series A led by Peak XV

  • Handwave, a Latvian startup providing third party retailers with a contactless palm recognition service, raised a $4.2M seed round led by Practica Capital

IPOs / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Chinese AC manufacturer Aux Electric plans to raise $600M-$800M in a Hong Kong IPO

Debt 

  • Senegal plans to raise $10B by 2028 to escape debt crisis

  • Italian port operator Terminal Investment raised $2.5B in a private bond placement

  • Blackstone sold $2B of UK CMBS backed by UK holiday parks operator Haven in the largest pound-denominated commercial mortgage deal since 2008

  • Morgan Stanley and MUFG are syndicating $1.1B in debt for India's Tata Motors' $4.4B acquisition of Italian truck maker IVECO's commercial vehicle business

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Distressed Brazilian telecom operator Oi is preparing to file a Chapter 11

  • Chinese developer Fantasia Holdings plans to unveil a new restructuring proposal after previous efforts failed

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • ​​PGIM, the the asset management arm of Prudential Financial, raised $4.2B for its second MM private credit fund

  • Secondaries investor Lexington Partners is nearing its $4B target for its sixth co-investment fund

  • Growth equity firm Silversmith Capital Partners closed raised $1.7B for its fifth fund to invest in tech and healthcare

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • VCs are funding a new wave of crypto mania on college campuses

  • Fintechs rush to raise equity in Hong Kong to tap crypto frenzy

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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