Trade War II

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Good Morning,

US will resume 'reciprocal' tariffs in August, public university endowments are increasing PE investments despite a slowdown, first-time home sales are tanking, investors are piling into tokenized Treasury funds, and the DOJ and FBI found no 'client list' or foul play related to Epstein's crimes and death.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 7/7/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks fell yesterday as tariff uncertainty returned to the forefront 

  • Dollar jumped by the most in three weeks

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Thursday: Delta, Levi's

  • Full calendar here 

Prediction Markets

  • They're selling dollars for 80 cents.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • US will make several trade announcements in next 24 hours ahead of Wednesday deadline (RT)

  • US will resume reciprocal tariffs on August 1 (BBG)

  • US announced steep tariffs on fourteen countries (CNBC)

  • Fed study found 9% chance of 0% rates in medium term (BBG)

  • Wall Street hangs on to hopes for a boom in deals (WSJ)

  • Public university endowments increase PE allocations despite downturn (FT)

  • Europe stocks' 2025 outperformance is over, but euro stays strong (RT)

  • Traders look beyond euro for next round of short dollar bets (BBG)

  • Misfiring models leave FX traders flying blind (BBG)

  • Hot junk loan market hits stumbling blocks as investors feel squeeze (BBG)

  • Hong Kong listings pipeline hits record high as equity market booms (FT)

  • Investors may double down on US junk bonds amid second tariff tantrum (RT)

  • Lloyds CEO says forcing pensions to buy UK assets is 'capital control' (FT)

  • Restructuring pressure rises in Italy and Nordics (BBG)

  • PBOC asked financial institutions about dollar weakness (RT)

  • PBOC gold reserves grew for eighth straight-month (BBG)

  • Tesla short sellers are set to pocket $1.4B in profits (RT)

  • Indian retail traders trading equity options have lost $12B YoY (BBG)

  • Jane Street investigation prompts India to upgrade market surveillance (BBG)

  • Meta poached Apple's top AI exec Ruoming Pang (BBG)

  • UK is moving to ban NDAs (BBG)

  • Andrew Left argues short selling case should be civil, not criminal (BBG)

  • First-time home sales are tanking (WSJ)

  • DOJ and FBI says there is no 'Epstein client list' in sharp reversal (WSJ)

A Message from Farsight AI

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Blackstone is exploring a joint bid for French telecom operator SFR, which is considering a sale at a $35B valuation, including debt

  • UK's Octopus Energy is weighing a $14B demerger and 20% stake sale of its tech unit Kraken

  • AI cloud computing firm CoreWeave agreed to acquire digital infrastructure firm Core Scientific in $9B all-stock deal

  • Royal Gold will acquire Sandstorm Gold in a $3.5B all-stock deal, at a 21% premium

  • Software giant Capgemini agreed to acquire IT outsourcing firm WNS Holdings for $3.3B in cash, at a 28% premium

  • Singaporean bank OCBC's $704M bid to fully acquire and delist Singapore-based insurer Great Eastern will face a shareholder vote in the final step in its two-decade takeover effort

  • Saudi's PIF invested $200M in a Related Companies' tower project in Manhattan with plans to take a two-thirds stake in the site

  • Blackstone agreed to acquire Allegiant Travel Co.'s Sunseeker Resort for $200M

  • A partnership between Justin Mateen and Tyler Mateen and Culver Capital will acquire LVMH's El Encanto hotel in Santa Barbara for $82.2M

  • BlackRock agreed to acquire $7.3B AUM real estate investment firm ElmTree Funds

  • Swiss energy firm MET Group acquired German gas storage operator KGE

  • Private credit placement agent Briarcliffe Credit Partners acquired London-based Branch Advisory

  • Tali Ventures, the VC arm of Saudi telecom STC Group, took a minority stake in Saudi debt investment platform Tarmeez Capital

VC

  • Cross-border used car trading startup CarOnSale raised an $82M Series C led by Northzone

  • GetWhy, a Danish startup using AI to extract insights from video interviews, raised a $20M Series A extension led by PeakSpan Capital

  • German robotics startup Filics raised a $15M round from Sandwater, Alven, F-LOG Ventures, Amazon, and more

  • Acorn, an AI-powered performance and learning management platform, raised a $12.3M Series A led by Level Equity 

  • Cerebrium, an AI infrastructure platform, raised an $8.5M seed round led by Gradient Ventures

  • Chloris Geospatial, a climate tech startup using satellite data to measure forest carbon and ecosystem change, raised an $8.5M Series A led by Future Energy Ventures

  • Fantasy sports and gaming company Fantasy Life raised a $7M seed round led by LRMR Ventures and SC Holdings

  • Parter, an AI-powered platform helping hardware teams navigate supply chain risk management, raised a $5.5M seed round led by StageOne Ventures

  • AI video privacy platform Pimloc raised a $5M round led by Amadeus Capital Partners and Edge Ventures

  • BridgePort, a middleware company improving the off-exchange settlement market structure, raised a $3.2M seed round led by Further Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • An affiliate of market maker Susquehanna acquired a $1B stake in quantum computing firm IonQ through a sale of stock and warrants priced at a 25% premium

  • Apple supplier Lens Technology raised $607M in a Hong Kong listing priced at the top of a marketed range

  • Canadian gold and copper miner Aura Minerals is preparing to raise $210M at a $2.14B valuation in a US listing

Debt

  • EU plans to finalize bilateral agreements with the UK and Canada by the end of July, granting them access to its new $176B defense loan fund

  • Nissan plans to sell $5B in debt, including $1B in convertible bonds and $4B in unsecured dollar-and euro-denominated junk bonds

  • Goldman Sachs is leading a $750M high-yield bond sale for Gray Media to refinance existing debt

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Sunnova Energy's unsecured creditors are opposing final approval of a $90M DIP loan that would grant legal releases to prepetition lender KKR

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Brookfield veterans Bahir Manios and David Levenson launched Genesis Financial Asset Management, an investment firm targeting infrastructure, health care, and financial services in up to $1B deals

  • Saudi Arabian asset manager SAB Invest launched a $267M Shariah-compliant, open-ended private credit fund

  • Blackstone is exploring a standalone private credit secondaries strategy

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Investors are piling into tokenized Treasury funds

  • Strategy posted a $14B unrealized gain in Q2

  • SEC took steps toward new crypto ETF framework

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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  • Callie Cox wrote an interesting and well-timed piece explaining how long-term investing requires a default state of optimism.

  • Bloomberg Odd Lots sat down with Brian Yelvington, a consultant at recruitment firm Carrington Fox, to learn how exactly finance professionals can get and keep jobs at multi-strat hedge funds.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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