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Good Morning,
Retail traders are beating the S&P 500, political uncertainty is punishing bonds globally, widows are leading the inheritance race in sideways successions, and the US bull market entered its third year at the most ironic timing after a Trump tweet wiped out $2T from stocks.
Holiday season means it's time for a wardrobe upgrade…and what better way than to start with a fresh pair of amberjacks.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 10/10/2025 market close.
Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks plunged on Friday after Trump hinted at failing US-China talks and threatened additional tariffs
S&P and Nasdaq had their worst day since April
US stocks wiped out $2T in value, with tech mega caps losing $770B
VIX surged to its highest since May
Global indexes also dropped sharply
US Treasury yields fell over 7 bps to the lowest levels since mid-September
EM currencies fell across the board
Cocoa posted its longest weekly losing streak since 1999 as dramatic two-year rally ends
Earnings
What we're watching this week:
Tuesday: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo
Wednesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Progressive
Thursday: Charles Schwab
Friday: State Street, American Express, Fifth Third Bank
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
Trump is headed to Israel after completely shredding US stock markets.
Headline Roundup
US bull market enters third year (BBG)
US threatened additional 100% tariffs and export controls on China (BBG)
US signaled openness to China deal after China's harsh response (BBG)
US initial jobless claims rose to 235k in Goldman Sachs' analysis (BBG)
VIX soars but equity market remains orderly after Trump China threats (BBG)
US leveraged loan market under strain as more deals are pulled (BBG)
Wall Street Q3 IB revenues are poised to top $9B for first time since 2021 (FT)
European IPO markets show signs of revival (FT)
Traders await J Pow speech and tariff updates as shutdown continues (BBG)
Soaring China markets come under threat from renewed US trade war (BBG)
Investors flock to 'ex-US' stock funds in drive to diversify (FT)
Wall Street deregulation is set to unlock $2.6T of lending capacity (FT)
Wall Street is obsessing over debasement trades (BBG)
Retail traders are beating the S&P 500 (BBG)
Politics premium is punishing bonds globally (BBG)
Corporate debt is benefiting as US looks more like EM (BBG)
Corporate blowups are rattling investors across EM (BBG)
Traders rush silver bars back to London amid historic squeeze (BBG)
PE overcomes California hurdle to expansion in US legal market (FT)
HSBC's $14B Hong Kong buyout adds to exuberant year (BBG)
Accounting firm BDO cuts jobs with focus on managing Apollo debt (BBG)
Fortress co-CEO's unexpected death rattles $53B firm (BBG)
US DOJ stepped up stockpiling of critical minerals with $1B buying spree (FT)
Musk's xAI poached Nvidia talent in race to build 'world models' (FT)
Congress is voting on bill to make it easier to hide fund fees (WSJ)
Record number of working-class Americans are investing in stocks (WSJ)
US started mass layoffs of government workers (WSJ)
Women wielding $365B lead boom in 'sideways' succession (BBG)
A Message from amberjack
Rated #1 Best Overall Dress Shoes
Cooler weather means it's time to upgrade your dress shoes, and there's no better place to look than Amberjack.
Amberjack is the modern footwear brand started by former executives from Adidas, Cole Haan, and McKinsey. They've created the world's most advanced dress shoes, made with proprietary athletic materials that deliver incredible comfort and A-grade leather vertically sourced from one of the world's leading tanneries.
They’ve been featured in Forbes, GQ, and Wall Street Journal and Men's Health named them the most comfortable business casual shoe of 2024. The only downside is they constantly sell out – get yours today before they're gone!
Deal Flow
M&A / Investments
Carlyle and Qatar's SWF QIA agreed to acquire a majority stake in German chemicals giant BASF's auto coatings business for $6.7B
PE firm Warburg Pincus is in advanced talks to acquire a 30% stake in French diagnostics provider Sebia at a $6.4B valuation
Johnson & Johnson is in talks to acquire $5.5B-listed biotech Protagonist Therapeutics
Infrastructure investor I Squared Capital is planning a bid for German media group Ströer's core advertising business which could fetch a $4.1B valuation
Pharma giant Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to acquire biotech Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5B cash
French PE firm Ardian is exploring a sale of specialty ingredients maker Frulact at a $1.2B valuation
Advanced manufacturing supplier MKS Instruments is selling a $1B speciality chemicals division to focus on chipmaker operations
Princes Group, the UK canned tuna subsidiary of Italian foods company NewPrinces, aims to IPO in London; the unit was valued at $930M last year
Cyprus-based sensor and optical system manufacturer Theon agreed to acquire a 9.8% stake in French night-vision gear firm Exosens for $312M
Oaktree is in talks to sell a minority stake in commodities house Hartree Partners
Polish real estate developer Globe Trade Centre is in talks to sell a 45% stake of a German residential portfolio it bought less than one year ago
Mexican telecoms América Móvil and Chile's Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones are seeking to acquire Telefonica's Chile unit
Private markets software firm Carta acquired loan administration platform Sirvatus to enhance offerings for private capital CFOs
VC
Predictions marketplace Kalshi raised a $300M round at a $5B valuation co-led by Sequoia Capital and a16z
Viamericas, a leader in the remittance and international money transfer industry, raised a $113.6M round led by Old National Bank
HavocAI, a maritime autonomous systems developer, raised an $85M round from B Capital, In-Q-Tel, Lockheed Martin, and more
Corvus Energy, a provider of low-carbon energy storage systems for vessels, raised a $60M Series E led by 1GT
Green Cabbage, a provider of procurement intelligence, raised a $40M Series B led by Sageview Capital
Hoverfly Technologies, a startup building tethered drone systems for defense and security, raised a $20M Series B led by Leonardo DRS and Korea Robot Manufacturing
Zania, a startup building an AI-centric GRC platform, raised an $18M Series A led by NEA
Gelt, an innovative tax firm for HNWIs, raised a $13M Series A led by the Rimon Group
Edge data intelligence company 375ai raised a $5M round led by Delphi Ventures, Strobe Capital, and HackVC
Generative engine optimization startup Search Party raised a $3.5M round led by Fuse
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Enterprise travel software firm Navan is seeking to raise $960M in an IPO, Navan was last valued at $9.2B in 2022
Chinese robot maker AgiBot is planning a Hong Kong IPO at a ~$6B valuation
Quantum computing firm IonQ raised $2B in a share and warrants sale to Susquehanna-affiliate Heights Capital Management
Brazilian mobile banking app PicPay is seeking to raise $500M in a US IPO
The Los Angeles Times newspaper is preparing to go public by raising $500M in preferred stock ahead of a smaller IPO in 2027
Hong Kong crypto exchange HashKey Group confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO which could raise $500M
WeWork India Management raised $340M in an India IPO
Dutch tech investor Prosus agreed to acquire a 10.1% stake in Indian online travel booking platform Ixigo for $146M
Bank holding firm Central Bancompany filed for an IPO
SPAC / SPV
Tokenization firm Securitize is in talks to merge with Cantor Fitzgerald SPAC Cantor Equity Partners III in a $1B+ deal
Debt
Morgan Stanley is selling a SRT tied to a $6B portfolio of private market loans
SoftBank is in talks for a $5B margin loan backed by chipmaker Arm stock
Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are working on a $4.7B debt package for Carlyle's $6.7B acquisition of BASF's coatings business
United Arab Bank is exploring a sale of $800M in bad debt
Healthcare media firm MJH Life Sciences raised a $430M leveraged loan for an acquisition at one of the steepest discounts this year
Poland's largest lender PKO Bank Polski is weighing a sale of covered bonds to retail investors
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
Spirit Airlines won bankruptcy court permission to tap $475M in new financing and return dozens of aircraft to its biggest lessor
A Brazilian judge accepted a bankruptcy protection request from PIMCO-backed fertilizer maker Unigel Participacoes as it continues to struggle to re-work debt
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Crypto markets saw a record $19B in liquidations
Crypto's record selloff sparks intrigue over who got wiped out
Major banks explore issuing stablecoin pegged to G7 currencies
Crypto project Ethena's yield-bearing stablecoin briefly lost its dollar peg
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
@KobeissiLetter posted an insightful threat breaking down the record $19B crypto market liquidation last week.
A flurry of credit meltdowns and collapses are making traders rethink the perceived strength of corporate bond markets. Check out Bloomberg's Big Take here.
As Wall Street pushes private assets into 401(k)s, WSJ published findings of a recent survey asking whether investors are even interested.
Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼
Litney Partners
If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!
Next Play
If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.
Meme Cleanser
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.