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Good Morning,

Gold buyers are getting margin called, lenders are strengthening bankruptcy protections amid rising distress, short bets on big private credit BDCs are growing, Meta is already cutting AI jobs, and equity short-sellers are blaming retail investors for getting burned this year.

Mizuho published an insightful report on the effects of AI agents on sluggish e-commerce and retail markets. It's a valuable read.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 10/22/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks fell yesterday on rising US-China trade fears 

  • UK 2Y gilt yield slid to a 14-month low on BoE rate cut bets

  • Gold extended losses after its worst rout in thirteen years

  • Dollar is trading in its tightest range since 2013 

Earnings

  • Tesla beat Q3 revenue estimates on its first sales growth since Q4 '24 as buyers rushed to use expiring EV tax credits, though earnings plunged on sky-high CapEx, price cuts, a Europe slump amid political backlash, rising competition, and tariff impacts which topped $400M (CNBC)

  • AT&T missed Q3 revenue estimates but met on earnings after adding 405k postpaid users as iPhone 17 promos and bundled wireless-fiber plans boosted sales (CNBC)

  • IBM beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and lifted guidance as AI tailwinds boosted software, consulting, and infrastructure growth, though cloud growth showed signs of slowing (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Intel, American Airlines

    • Friday: Procter & Gamble, Booz Allen Hamilton, General Dynamics

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • We've now entered the second-longest government shutdown in history.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • US sanctioned Russia in first under Trump (WSJ)

  • US is considering broad software curbs on China (BBG)

  • S&P 500 earnings are on track for their best showing in four years (BBG)

  • Gold's wild ride entered a new stage (RT)

  • Fed unveiled plans to significantly ease capital rules for big banks (BBG)

  • BDO advised member firms to not take outside capital from PE firms (BBG)

  • Short sellers blame retail investors for worst returns since 2020 (FT)

  • Short bets on BDCs are at $1.2B (BBG)

  • First Brands bankruptcy sparks sharp outflow from US CLO funds (RT)

  • Roaring AI-linked debuts drive demand for pre-IPO shares (BBG)

  • Hot-money retail traders turn momentum chasers into bagholders (BBG)

  • Total gold ETF holdings hit its highest since 2022 (BBG)

  • PE-backed IPOs are gaining traction in the Middle East (BBG)

  • Lenders strengthen bankruptcy protections amid rising distress (BBG)

  • Citigroup named CEO Jane Fraser as chair and awarded $25M bonus (RT)

  • Goldman named Colin Convey as co-head of sponsor M&A (BBG)

  • NHL struck multiyear deals with Kalshi and Polymarket (BBG)

  • Meta cut 600 AI jobs (BBG)

  • Sequoia COO quit over Shaun Maguire's comments on Islam (FT)

  • People pardoned by Trump are still struggling with de-banking (BBG)

  • US government shutdown is now the second-longest in history (BBG)

A Message from Mizuho

E-commerce is on the brink of massive disruption. For years, the U.S. market has stagnated, with only about 20% of annual retail sales occurring online.

However, this period of sluggish growth may be ending. Advances in artificial intelligence are set to transform how consumers shop, reshaping the online experience.

Adoption is already visible: in July, ChatGPT processed more than 2.5 billion prompts per day, with shopping queries comprising nearly 10% of all searches – a category that has grown more than 25% since the start of the year.

While generative AI is spreading rapidly across retail, its most transformative applications are emerging in the form of AI agents – software designed to act on behalf of the user. These agents can research products, compare features, find the lowest prices, and even complete purchases, often with little or no human involvement. 

Read More

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Apollo is exploring a sale of Hispanic food retailer Heritage Grocers at a $1.5B valuation

  • Singaporean state-owned energy and development company Sembcorp Industries is in talks to buy a 25%-30% stake in the gas-fired business of Thai energy company B.Grimm Power for $500M-$600M

  • Indonesian SWF Danantara plans to combine the asset management units of Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, and Bank Negara Indonesia to form an $8B AUM asset manager

  • Crypto prime broker FalconX agreed to acquire Swiss crypto ETP issuer 21shares

  • US is in talks to take stakes in several quantum computing including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing Inc., and Atom Computing

VC picks by Fundable

  • Dutch autonomous robotaxi startup Avride raised a $375M strategic investment from Uber and Nebius

  • Business AI platform Uniphore raised a $260M Series F at a $2.5B valuation led by Nvidia, AMD, Snowflake, and Databricks

  • Conversational AI startup Sesame raised a $250M Series B from Sequoia, Spark, and others

  • LangChain, a startup providing an open-source framework for building AI agents, raised a $125M round at a $1.25B valuation led by IVP

  • ShopMy, a curated commerce infrastructure company, raised $70M in funding at a $1.5B valuation led by Avenir

  • Arbor Energy, a clean power company developing zero-emission turbines, raised a $55M Series A led by Lowercarbon Capital and Voyager Ventures

  • Anrok, a global sales tax compliance platform for digital businesses, raised a $55M Series C led by Spark Capital

  • Chemify, a startup combining chemistry and robotics, raised a $50M Series B led by Wing Venture Capital and Insight Partners

  • Govtech startup Starbridge raised a $42M Series A led by Craft Ventures

  • Saturn, a UK AI tech firm transforming financial advice, raised a $15M Series A led by European VC Singular

  • SenseNet, a startup detecting wildfires with AI-based sensor networks and satellites, raised a $14M Series A led by Stormbreaker

  • Wolf Games, a generative entertainment startup, raised a $9M Series A led by Main Street Advisors

  • Sizable Energy, a startup looking to store electricity in the ocean, raised an $8M round led by Playground Global

  • Shuttle, a startup helping deploy software code produced by vibe-coding, raised a $6M seed round from Thomas Dohmke, Calvin French-Owen, and others

  • AI reasoning architecture startup MythWorx raised a $5M seed round at a $100M valuation led by Eagle Venture Fund 

  • Nume, an AI CFO for SMEs, raised a $4M round led by Mainset, Circlerock, North Ventures, and more

Click here to stay plugged into every corner of the VC and startup landscape.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Chinese chipmaker YMTC is considering a China IPO at an over $40B valuation

  • Crypto exchange Kraken reported 114% revenue growth ahead of its 2026 IPO that could fetch a $20B valuation

  • Canned-tuna company Princes Group, a UK subsidiary of Italian food manufacturer NewPrinces, plans to raise $535M at a lowered $1.6B valuation in London's biggest domestic IPO since 2021

  • CDH Investments-backed Chinese drug developer Innora is planning to raise $200M in a Hong Kong IPO

  • Chinese autonomous vehicle manufacturer Neolix is working with banks on a Hong Kong IPO

  • UAE classifieds platform Dubizzle postponed its Dubai IPO a day before scheduled book building

Debt

  • SoftBank sold $2.9B of subordinated hybrid bonds in dollars and euros

  • GM's finance arm GM Financial sold $1B of junk bonds

  • Word's largest retirement community The Villages is raising $130M in a high-yield munis sale

  • Oaktree raised private credit from Ares and Barings to fund its proposed acquisition of Australian fund manager Perpetual's wealth management unit

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Subprime auto lender PrimaLend filed for bankruptcy following missed interest payments and failed negotiations with creditors

  • German auto supplier Webasto received unanimous stakeholder consent for a restructuring to extend $1.4B of debt and inject an additional $232M

  • Puerto Rico's power utility Electric Power Authority's bankruptcy is progressing after US tried to dismiss all but one member of the restructuring oversight board

  • Mining giant Rio Tinto is exploring an asset-for-equity swap with Chinese state-owned miner Chinalco that would trim its 11% stake

  • AI-powered CLO investor Anthelion Capital Partners had an outsized position in now-bankrupt First Brands 

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Saudi state-backed investor Saudi Venture Capital is revamping its $3B strategy to allocate more to private credit

  • The National University of Singapore's endowment is divesting $500M in PE and real estate LP stakes from funds including Advent, Shunwei Capital, ForeBright Capital, and Gaw Capital Partners, with European PE firm Partners Group in talks to pick up some of the stakes

  • Hedge fund Lone Pine Capital launched a concentrated long-term fund with a $500M self-seeding to invest in stocks that compound consistently over many years 

  • Indian alternative investments firm Neo Asset Management raised $250M for its debut secondaries fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Crypto execs head to Congress to lobby for market structure bill

  • a16z says crypto is finally growing up 

  • T. Rowe Price plans to launch a crypto fund to beat a crypto index

  • Over 13M meme coins have been issued this year

  • The architects of Melania Trump's memecoin were accused of fraud

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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