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Good Morning,

If you think US chip stocks are doing bad, take a look at our friends across the globe. More than 1.5M Koreans have now been liquidated. That ~3% of the entire population. The government is literally holding emergency meetings and publicly apologizing for the leveraged ETF mania lmao…

$2T in value wiped out in one month is making the dot-com burst look small…

Polymarket's Polygraph newsletter is bringing global headlines with skin in the game. Subscribe for free to see what's happening in world events, with information always priced in.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 7/29/2026 market close.

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks sunk yesterday as bond markets punished the Fed for holding rates steady despite rising inflation

    • Dow had its worst day since 'Liberation Day' in April 2025

    • Nasdaq-100 entered a correction

    • NYSE Semiconductor Index is down 30% from June ATHs but still up 48% YTD

  • Korea's KOSPI index is down 38% from ATHs in just one month

    • Trading was halted for a third-straight day for the first-time ever

  • UK's "anti-tech" FTSE 100 index hit an ATH

  • US 30Y yield surged 14 bps to 5.2% to the highest since 2007

  • US 10Y yield surged 7 bps

  • Dysfunction in US high-grade bond markets rose to the highest since November 2023 

  • Dollar fell 0.3% by the most in two weeks 

Earnings

  • UBS beat Q2 earnings estimates on strength in IB and wealth (WSJ)

  • Meta beat Q2 revenue estimates but missed on earnings and guidance on light DAP numbers and its worst FCF in four years; the firm is entering the thriving cloud-computing business (CNBC)

  • Microsoft beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as cloud revenue topped $100B and boosted capex on growing AI demand, with over $130B in new data center leases (CNBC)

  • Qualcomm missed Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and provided light guidance amid an ongoing supply crunch for computer parts, especially memory (CNBC)

  • Robinhood smashed Q2 estimates on a 44% rise in trading revenue as prediction markets swallow dwindling numbers in crypto (WSJ)

  • Chipotle issued a Q2 beat-and-raise as new menu items, value deals, and revamped rewards helped boost demand (CNBC)

  • Procter & Gamble beat Q4 earnings estimates but missed on revenue on weakening consumer demand (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Apple, Amazon

    • Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Markets weren't happy at all with the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. But they're still doubtful about September's move

  • Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

  • Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with three dissents (CNBC)

  • Trump pledged to "beat the f*cking sh*t out of Iran" (CNBC)

  • South Korea holds emergency meeting after 40% $2T stock rout (RT)

  • Korea apologized for leveraged ETF mania after market rout (CNBC)

  • Retail traders dumped the most individual stocks since Covid (BBG)

  • UK drops ban pursuit of PE executives over price gouging (FT)

  • Democrat lawmakers press SEC to probe Trump Media's fast feed (RT)

  • Polymarket is launching a new media company called Eventual (AX)

  • Zuckerberg said US should not ban Chinese AI (FT)

  • FTC sued Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta and Snap (RT)

  • Musk settled long-running legal battle with X advertising group (FT)

  • FIFA president defends $20B commercial venture after backlash (FT)

  • Ferrari already hit 2026 sales target for Luce EV (FT)

  • China's commercial space boom poses strategic challenge for US (FT)

  • Ex-Goldman exec awarded £1.5M after paternity leave 'stigma' (FT)

A Message from Polymarket

News with skin in the game

Each morning, hundreds of thousands of traders gather on Polymarket.

They're not trying to score political points or likes. They are trying to predict the future. They make money when they are right and lose money when they are wrong.

And we know it works: Polymarket odds are over 90% accurate in predicting events one month in the future.

On any given day, there are thousands of live polymarkets: from weather to sports; elections to interest rates. It's a lot to keep up with…

Polygraph is your morning brief on it all: what moved the odds overnight, where the sharpest forecasters are putting their money, and what happens next.

Delivered to your email each morning for free. Join 1,631,376 readers who get their news on Polymarket.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • NextEra ​Energy and Brookfield plan to develop a $100B data center campus and power plant in Kentucky

  • A consortium led by Amit Bhatia, the son-in-law of steel billionaire Lakshmi Mittal, wants to eventually obtain control of UK soccer club Liverpool FC from Fenway Sports Group; the group is currently in talks for a 30% stake at a $6B valuation

  • New Mountain Capital-backed accounting firm Grant Thornton US agreed to buy rival CBIZ for $5B cash at a 55% premium

  • Sixth Street, South Korea's SK Telecom, Singapore's GIC, and Canada's La Caisse are bidding for a 50% stake in Bain Capital's APAC-focused Bridge Data Centres, which could fetch a $4B valuation

  • China's Zijin Gold and Canada's Allied Gold scrapped a $3.9B merger

  • Shell and Phillips 66 are looking to sell their 61% stake in US pipeline Explorer at a  $3.5B valuation

  • DigitalBridge-backed Vantage Data Centers is considering selling its Malaysia assets for $2B

  • Aussie investment firm Perpetual rebuffed a third takeover offer from EQT that valued the firm at $1.8B

  • PE firm Apax will acquire two plastic ​packaging units, including US unit Centor, from German drug packaging firm Gerresheimer for $1.7B, including debt

  • Deutsche Lufthansa and Air France-KLM submitted binding offers for a 49.9% stake in Portugal's state-owned airline TAP at a reported $1.7B valuation 

  • Schneider Electric is in talks to acquire European smart device maker Shelly Group for $1.5B

  • Bain Capital and digital infrastructure developer Tillman Global announced a $1.5B investment in Tillman-backed Eaton Fiber

  • Global Diamond Consortium, a group comprising ex-De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, Namibia, Angola, Botswana, and others, is in talks to acquire the De Beers diamond monopoly from miner Anglo American for $1B

  • Real estate firms Stonemont and PCCP are acquiring a portfolio of 38 industrial buildings from Blackstone's Link Logistics in a $1B deal

  • CVC is considering a sale of Chinese retail pharmacy chain Xi'an Yikang Pharmaceutical for $500M-$600M

  • Italian asset manager Azimut Holding agreed to buy Turkey's portfolio management unit Yapi Kredi Portfoy Yonetimi from Turkish lender Yapi Kredi for $350M

  • Processa Pharmaceuticals acquired immunology-focused Vidya Therapeutics in an all-stock ​deal while also raising $200M in new equity

  • Italian gas network operator Snam will shortlist bidders for its biomethane business by the fall; bidders include Edison, Arcus Infrastructure Partners, Vesper Infrastructure, and others

  • Bloomberg agreed to acquire private markets data platform Canoe Intelligence

  • French infrastructure investor Meridiam is weighing a bid for Istanbul's two iconic Bosporus bridges

  • Family office Aser Ventures could sell part of its minority ‌stake in sports streaming platform DAZN

  • Talent agency THE·TEAM will acquire the remaining 40% stake from disgraced founder Casey Wasserman with backing from owner Providence Equity Partners

VC

  • China's Moonshot AI raised a $3.5B round at a $35B valuation

  • ThreatLocker, a Zero Trust cybersecurity company, raised a $190M Series F led by Elephant

  • AI interconnect startup Eliyan ​raised a $145M Series C at a $1B led by Seligman Ventures

  • Chip design startup ChipAgents raised a $130M Series A led by B Capital

  • Freehand, an AI agents startup for supply-chain and procurement spend, raised $75M co-led by Battery Ventures and NewRoad Capital Partners 

  • P-1 AI, an engineering AI startup, raised a $50M Series A led by NEA

  • Encore AI, a startup that analyzes customer interactions to train and deploy AI voice and text agents, raised a $30M Series A led by Team8

  • LemonEdge, a modern fund accounting platform for private markets, raised a $21M Series A led by Blackstone 

  • Terminal, a telematics integration and data infrastructure provider, raised a $20M Series A led by Battery Ventures

  • Centralize, the relationship intelligence platform for enterprise revenue teams, raised $19M led by NEA

  • Henry AI, an AI platform for automating back-office knowledge work in commercial real estate, raised a $16.5M Series A led by FirstMark Capital

  • AI detection startup Pangram raised a $9M funding round led by Menlo Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • AI server maker Quanta Computer is seeking to raise $2.2B in a GDR sale at a 7% discount in Taiwan's biggest stock offering in two decades

SPAC / SPV

  • First Choice Healthcare will merge with Westin Acquisition at a $650M valuation

Debt

  • Dutch lender ING is nearing two SRTs tied to $10B of loans including AI-linked debt

  • Bank of Montreal completed two SRTs tied to $5B of corporate loans

  • CoreWeave sweetened terms on a $2.6B loan to fund additional computing capacity for firms including Anthropic

  • Blackstone-owned data center firm AirTrunk secured a $2.3B green loan from 30 lenders for a new facility in Malaysia 

  • Blackstone-backed Ancestry.com slashed the size of a loan sale by $700M to $10.5B and raised a concurrent junk-bond sale by $450M to $950M and adjusted debt terms to woo creditors 

  • India's UltraTech Cement is in talks to raise $517M in local bonds

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Thoma Bravo-backed cybersecurity firm Proofpoint reworked a $5B loan deal, offering major concessions to lenders anxious about AI-driven tech disruption

Funds / Secondaries

  • Hedge fund Millennium is looking to raise a record $20B in new capital

  • Situational Awareness, the $20B hedge fund of ex-OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner, is looking to raise fresh capital after suffering heavy losses from the AI stock rout

  • Hong Kong PE firm ZQ Capital raised $300M for its flagship fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Binance wants to join prediction markets race with CFTC stamp

  • BNY will adopt blockchain technology for records in new era for Wall Street

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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