US stocks roared back on Friday as dip-buyers capitalized on the software-led selloff

Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged 4% to a fresh ATH on PM Takaichi's landslide election victory

EM sovereign debt gained 13% last year versus US Treasuries’ 6.3%

Bitcoin recovered most losses from last weeks’ deep selloff

Toyota issued a Q3 beat-and-raise and announced major leadership changes on optimism despite tariff headwinds (CNBC)

Carlyle beat Q4 estimates with fee-related earnings rising 12% to a record $1.2B and AUM hitting $477B; the firm touted PE asset sales and downplayed software concerns (BBG)

What we're watching this week:  

Full calendar here

Some totally unsuspicious volatility spikes

Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Bessent says Kevin Warsh Fed will take its time on QT (RT)

Warsh call for Fed-Treasury accord stirs $30T debate (BBG)

Banks push for speedy European IPOs to cut market risk (FT)

Germany M&A is having its best YTD ever with $26B spree (BBG)

Goldman, JPMorgan, and BofA bankers see bonus pools rise over 10% (BBG)

Share of US firms reporting earnings growth hit a four-year high (BBG)

Investors chase small-caps value as risk aversion hits tech sector (RT)

Software drama punished Wall Street speculators (BBG) 

Hedge funds had their worst day since November on Wednesday (BBG)

Hedge funds reap positive gains in volatile January (RT)

Hedge funds hiked bullish oil bets to ten-month high on Iran risks (BBG)

BlackRock's bond CIO Rieder dumps US credit in favor of EM (BBG)

Bessent sees 'unruly' Chinese trading behind gold volatility (BBG)

Retail traders double down on silver despite price plunge (FT)

Retail investors pulled money from UK equity funds for tenth-straight year (FT)

Private credit stocks keep falling as software wipeout spreads (BBG)

Blue Owl sees no tech 'red flags' as shares extend record plunge (BBG)

Big Tech plans to spend $560B on AI CapEx this year (BBG)

Global chip sales is expected to hit $1T this year (RT)

Goldman partnered with Anthropic to automate back office roles (CNBC)

Sam Altman lashed out at Anthropic's Super Bowl dig (CNBC)

SpaceX delays Mars plans to focus on 2027 moon landing (WSJ)

Global carmakers book $55B hit from EV rollback (RT)

One-fifth of FTSE 100 CEOs don't live in UK (FT)

College grads are now less likely to find jobs than trade workers (WP)

Paramount Skydance is seeking to wrap up DOJ's antitrust review of its Warner Bros. Discovery tender offer, while DOJ separately investigates Netflix's $83B all-cash deal for WBD

UK lender NatWest is close to a takeover of wealth management group Evelyn Partners from PE firms Permira and Warburg Pincus after beating out Barclays in a contested auction that could fetch $3.7B

PE firm TPG agreed to acquire a majority stake in critical infrastructure provider Sabre Industries from Blackstone's Energy Transition Partners at a a $3.5B valuation

Nordic Capital is considering a sale of Danish cybersecurity firm Conscia at a $2.4B valuation

E&J Gallo Winery will acquire Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings's Kentucky bourbon brand Four Roses for $775M

Brazilian meat producer giant JBS agreed to buy an 80% stake in an Oman food business from SWF Oman Investment Authority in a $150M deal

Real estate investors Gencom and Trinity Investments agreed to acquire Ritz-Carlton hotels in New York and DC from Westbrook Partners

LatAm investment firm Patria Investments will acquire US-based lower MM PE solutions manager WP Global Partners

Angola is pursuing a 20%-30% stake in mining giant Anglo American's diamond unit De Beers

PE firms including Hellman & Friedman are in talks to take-private enterprise credit card fintech BILL, which is under activist pressure from Elliott, Starboard Value, and Barington 

Crypto bank Anchorage Digital launched a secondary share sale at a $4.2B valuation after raising a $100M strategic investment from Tether 

AI chip startup SambaNova Systems raised a $350M Series E led by Vista Equity Partners and with participation from Cambium Capital and Intel

UK credit data provider 9fin is in talks to raise $150M at a $1B pre-money valuation  

Inference infrastructure startup Gruve.ai raised a $50 million follow-on Series A led by Xora Innovation 

Adaption Labs, an adaptive AI systems startup, raised a $50M seed round led by Emergence Capital Partners

Forerunner, an AI geospatial platform for governments, raised a $26.3M Series B led by Wellington Management and a $12.7M Series A led by Union Square Ventures 

Time-series intelligence startup Nixtla raised a $16M Series A led by Energize Capital 

Swiss nanotechnology startup Chiral raised a $12M seed round led by Crane Venture Partners 

Voice-first lending AI agent startup Veritus raised a $10.1M seed round led by Crosslink and Threshold 

Electric scooter maker Sleek EV raised an $8.5M Series A led by KYMCO Capital

Advent and Cinven-backed elevator operator TK Elevator selected banks for a Germany IPO that could fetch a $30B valuation

CVC, Silver Lake, and SWF GIC-backed driving services provider RAC selected banks for a London IPO that could fetch a $6.8B valuation

National Stock Exchange of India began preparations for an India IPO that could raise $2.5B at a ~$63B valuation

EQT Life Sciences-backed biotech AgomAb Therapeutics raised $200M at a $715M valuation in an IPO

Jennifer Garner-backed organic kids snack maker Once Upon a Farm raised $198M at an $850M valuation in an IPO

Eye-care biotech SpyGlass Pharma raised $150M at an $842M valuation in an IPO

GIC-backed Thai e-payment and delivery startup Line Man Wongnai is considering a Hong Kong or US IPO after postponing postponing a domestic share sale

Blackstone is finalizing an over $3.5B loan to fund the data center expansion of Australian AI infrastructure startup Firmus Technologies

O&G firm Antero Resources raised $2.25B in debt to fund its acquisition of HG Energy II Production Holdings

Belgian telecom Telenet postponed plans to sell $2.3B of bonds and loans for a refinancing amid volatile markets

UK supermarket group Morrisons is exploring options to raise $1.4B secured against part of its large freehold store portfolio

Poland sold $1.4B of Samurai bonds in Japan 

Thoma Bravo added a clause in a $1.2B private credit loan for insurtech Majesco's acquisition of Vitech requiring lenders to disclose any attempts to form creditor cooperation agreements within three days

Italian lender UniCredit is advising Poland's largest lender PKO Bank Polski on a potential SRT

Apollo-backed crafts retailer Michaels' bonds recovered to near par from 34¢ last May as strong results position the firm to refinance billions

Fast food franchise operator FAT Brands creditors holding $1B in notes want CEO Andrew Wiederhorn suspended without pay for allegedly selling 9M Twin Peaks shares without court approval

Creditors seized stakes in Brazilian imaging firms Allianca Saude and utility Light from troubled Brazilian investor Nelson Tanure after executing collateral tied to his Ligga Telecomunicacoes acquisition

Creditors including Apollo, Ares, and BlackRock accused heavily indebted telecoms group Optimum of 'weaponizing antitrust laws' to stave off bankruptcy

Blue Owl raised $2.5 billion for its debut GP-led secondaries fund

Indian asset manager Systematix launched a $110M India equity opportunity fund

MASNA Ventures is seeking to raise $100M for Saudi Arabia's first defense-focused VC fund from US and Saudi LPs

Crypto-focused Erebor Bank received a national bank charter

Crypto exchange Gemini will lay off 200 staff and exit Europe and Australia

Crypto.com founder bought ai.com domain for a record $70M

Bloomberg published a profile on Minal Bathwal, a Brevan Howard PM who has quietly become one of the world's most successful macro traders. He's not one for the public spotlight but his private circle is rightfully comparing him to legends such as Druckenmiller and Rokos. Read Bloomberg's piece here.

WSJ published a detailed report on the famous names (excluding Trump…) in the latest release of the Epstein files.