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Bridgewater CIOs warned of underpriced market risks, Point72 is creating a new equities unit, BofA's CEO is facing investor pressure to boost returns, Hooters founders will return the brand to its roots, and Michael Burry's hedge fund is 80% Palantir and Nvidia shorts.

Mizuho | Greenhill brought together its top dealmakers from UK and Europe to discuss the state of M&A, including the rising role of PE in M&A across Europe. Join the conversation.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 11/3/2025 market close.

Learn more and invest in the Litquidity strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks inched higher yesterday on the back of tech as investors digested major AI-related deals  

    • 'Magnificent 7' stocks rallied 1.2% 

  • South Korea's KOSPI index rallied another 2.8% to a new ATH

    • KOSPI logged its best month since 2001

    • The index is up 76% YTD as the world's best stock index this year

  • Indonesia stocks are up 38% from April lows as foreign inflows hit a one-year high

  • Aluminum rose to its highest since May 2022 amid tightening supply in China and improving global demand

Earnings

  • Palantir issued a Q3 beat-and-raise as government sales surged 52% on strong AI adoption and major defense contracts (CNBC)

  • Ares beat Q3 earnings estimates as fee-related earnings from its secondaries unit surged 167% on strong institutional demand for liquidity (BBG)

  • Ryanair profits surged 40% in H1 on increased passenger demand and a rise in air fares as families holiday near home over 'reluctance' to fly to US (FT)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: AMD, Uber, Shopify, Spotify, Supermicro, Pfizer, Beyond Meat

    • Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, Robinhood, McDonald's, AppLovin, Qualcomm

    • Thursday: Warner Bros. Discovery, Airbnb, DraftKings, Opendoor, MP Materials

    • Friday: Six Flags, Wendy's

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • 👀

Headline Roundup

  • Michael Burry's hedge fund is 66% Palantir puts and 14% Nvidia puts (QQ)

  • Marco Rubio thwarted Nvidia's China exports lobbying efforts (WSJ)

  • Bond traders turn to private data after J Pow comments (BBG)

  • Investors brace for Treasury issuances to tilt towards short term (BBG)

  • Bridgewater CIOs warn of underpriced risks in AI-fueled S&P 500 rally (RT)

  • $80B M&A Monday puts M&A on track for second-best year ever (BBG)

  • BofA CEO faces calls to boost returns through IB and wealth (RT)

  • KKR plans to expand in India (BBG)

  • BDO explores using private capital to fund mergers of national firms (FT)

  • Regulators call for crackdown on 'front-running' by market makers (FT)

  • India quant hiring continues despite options market crackdown (BBG)

  • Hong Kong dollar-bond sales lose momentum following record month (BBG)

  • OpenAI signed a $38B cloud deal with Amazon (CNBC)

  • Hooters founders promise to return brand to roots after bankruptcy (BBG)

  • Resource disputes between investors and states hit a 10-year high (RT)

  • London minimum wage is now same as starting pay for finance jobs (FT)

  • Exxon execs warn of Europe exit over climate law (RT)

  • Evolve Bank's new CEO was charged with CP crimes (WSJ)

  • Young Brit's attitudes harden on crime and welfare (FT)

A Message from Mizuho

From shifting political environments to macroeconomic uncertainties, the European M&A market has seen several trends that have influenced dealmaking activity in 2025. As we move into the end of the year, what are the challenges and opportunities for corporates looking to Europe?

Mizuho | Greenhill's Co-Head of Corporate Finance and Head of M&A, Kevin Costantino, sits down with two of our European colleagues to examine the current state of dealmaking in their nations – Amélie Oyarzabal, Head of Greenhill France, and Dean Rodrigues, Head of Greenhill U.K.

Our guests discuss key M&A deals in 2025, unpacking the prevalence of outbound M&A activity into the U.S., how corporate development teams should approach European markets and the continued importance of private equity in M&A within the French and U.K. markets.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Consumer goods giant Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy J&J's consumer health spinoff Kenvue in $48.7B deal, representing a 47% premium

  • Activist investor Palliser Capital urged mining giant Rio Tinto to bid for $21B-listed rival Teck

  • US shale producers SM Energy and Civitas agreed to merge in $12.8B deal, including debt, to create one of the largest independent oil producers in the Permian Basin

  • Power management company Eaton agreed to buy liquid cooling specialist Boyd Thermal from Goldman Sachs Asset Management for $9.5B

  • US-based gold miner Coeur Mining agreed to acquire rival New Gold in a $7B all-stock deal

  • Apollo agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Danish energy giant Orsted's UK offshore wind project JV Hornsea 3 for $6.5B

  • Credit card fintech CompoSecure agreed to acquire injection-molding equipment maker Husky Technologies from Platinum Equity for $5B, including debt

  • Chinese PE firm Boyu Capital agreed to acquire a 60% stake in Starbucks' China unit for $4B

  • Founder Izzy Englander sold a 15% stake in $80B-AUM hedge fund Millennium to a group of investors for $2B, cutting his 100% stake for the first time

  • Investment firm Sixth Street agreed to acquire stakes in US shale assets from O&G giant BP for $1.5B

  • General Catalyst-backed Aethel Energy acquired KKR-backed Texas oil producer Crescent Energy's Rockies drilling portfolio for $400M

  • State Street's asset management arm acquired a minority stake in UK secondaries investor Coller Capital

  • Temasek-backed Mapletree Investments and Singapore-listed CapitaLand Investment are exploring a merger to create one of APAC's largest real-estate asset managers with over $150B AUM

  • Chinese O&G giant Sinopec is in talks to buy Chinese jet fuel distributor China National Aviation Fuel Group

VC

  • Rare-earth magnet startups Vulcan Elements and ReElement raised $1.4B from private and strategic investors, including US 

  • Piezoelectric MEMS fan-on-a-chip startup xMEMS raised a $21M Series D led by Boardman Bay Capital Management

  • Archy, an AI platform for dental practice ops, raised a $20M Series B led by TCV

  • AUI, a startup building neuro-symbolic foundation models for task-oriented conversational AI, raised a $20M round at a $750M valuation from eGateway Ventures, New Era Capital Partners, and more

  • i6 Group, a digital fuel management startup for airlines, raised a $20M Series B led by Yttrium

  • Dutch environment agriculture AI startup Source.ag raised a $17.5M Series B led by Astanor Ventures

  • The Icon League, a five‑a‑side soccer league founded by German soccer star Toni Kroos, raised a $17M Series A led by HV Capital

  • Donut Labs, a startup building an AI-powered crypto trading browser, raised a $15M seed round from BITKRAFT, Makers Fund, Sky9 Capital, and more

  • Popai Health, a patient conversation intelligence startup, raised $11M in funding led by Team8, NEA, and strategic investors

  • Standard Money, a startup developing a BNB Chain-based stablecoin, raised an $8M round led by YZi Labs

Access the most comprehensive VC deal flow data on Fundable.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • TDR Capital, SWFs ADIA and GIC, and pension funds ATP and PGGM are seeking to sell their $1.1B stake in French car leaser Ayvens

  • AV technology company Pony AI raised $863M in its Hong Kong listing

  • Electric aircraft manufacturer Beta Technologies began drawing orders for its $825M IPO that will give it a market value of over $7.6B

  • Point72 tripled its stake in $1.8B-listed Lionsgate Studios to 5.1%

SPAC / SPV

  • Bessemer, Georgian, and OMERS-backed Xanadu Quantum Technologies will merge with Canada and US-listed Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp. in a $3.6B deal

  • Hong Kong-based blockchain developer Animoca Brands will merge with US-listed Currenc Group

Debt

  • Alphabet is selling $17.5B of bonds in US after issuing $7.5B of notes in Europe

  • UBS sold $3.25B of bonds for the first time since its AT1 ruling

  • Tenet Healthcare will raise $2B in a bond sale for refinancing 

  • Distressed Hong Kong developer New World Development plans to raise $1.9B in new debt in an exchange offer that includes 50% haircuts on perpetual bonds

  • Spanish lender BBVA raised $1.2B in an AT1 bond sale

  • Private credit firm Castlelake will acquire $500M of auto loans from lending fintech Pagaya Technologies

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Sable Offshore plans to raise $225M in stock and extend a loan with ExxonMobil

  • Lenders are set to take over Canadian broadcaster Corus Entertainment after reaching a debt-for-equity swap agreement

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Government-focused investor Arlington Capital Partners raised $6B for its seventh fund to invest in critical sectors, including defense, government services, and healthcare

  • Investment firm Hamilton Lane won a mandate to manage The Guardian Life Insurance's $5B PE portfolio

  • UK MM PE firm Montagu raised $2.3B for a continuation fund for IoT connectivity firm Wireless Logic co-led by TPG GP Solutions, CVC Secondary Partners, and Partners Group

  • Ares raised a $1B continuation fund for its stake in systems integrator Convergint Technologies led by PE firm Leonard Green

  • Aquilius Investment Partners, a Singaporean real estate investment firm founded by ex-Blackstone and Partners Group execs, raised $1.1B for its second and APAC's largest real estate secondaries fund

  • Israeli VC F2 Venture Capital is seeking to raise $100M for its fourth fund to back seed-stage startups

  • Point72 is creating a new equities unit as AUM soars past $40B

  • Private markets investment firm HarbourVest launched an evergreen secondaries vehicle aimed at non-US investors

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Cryptocurrencies slump as October liquidations repel buyers

  • Trump says 'no idea who he is' is response to question over CZ pardon

  • Kraken unlocked crypto collateral for derivatives across EU

  • Hong Kong will allow crypto exchanges to tap global capital pools

  • Trump family earned over $800m from crypto assets in H1

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

  • IB and PE folks, no more losing sleep over 'plx fix' pings. Industry-leading deal modeling platform Mosaic just launched modeling agent Mo Wick, incorporating its proprietary LBO modeling engine into email. 

    • What does a take-private of NYSE: FDS look like? Email Mo. 

    • What does the management case imply at $1.5B TEV on that new CIM? Ask Mo. 

    • Late-night model 'plz fix?' Forward it to Mo. 

    Deal teams from CVC to Warburg Pincus already trust Mosaic. See why their modeling just got easier with agent Mo. Upgrade your modeling workflow with Mosaic (and Mo).

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.

Meme Cleanser

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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