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Good Morning,
The Halloween festivities started slightly early this year with a stock market clappening on Friday. Hopefully the scaries don't last too long. Unless you're short the AI trade of course…
Halloween costume wasn't enough to find you love? There's still a chance to join us at our second edition of Off-Market. We're accepting a couple more all-stars for our singles lineup, and closing the list by EOD. Cuffing season is right around the corner. RSVP info below 👀
Polymarket recently launched Polymarket Institutional Research, a publication exploring the intersection of prediction markets with the global financial system. It's proprietary research straight from their institutional desk with super valuable insights for public market investors. Your firm can request access here.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell

As of 10/30/2026 market close.
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Markets
US stocks wiped out $1.8T in value after poor Big Tech earnings and massive AI Capex forecasts sparked a historic selloff
Nasdaq-100 entered its third correction this year after falling 3.5% in its worst day since June and posting its worst month since March 2025
Canada's TSX index fell 1.7% in its worst day since June
Gold fell 7% in its worst October since 2008
Iron ore posted its seventh monthly loss this year for its lowest month-end close since 2022
Euro fell 2% versus pound in its worst month since 2022 on French woes
Earnings
Chevron posted its fourth-best earnings in firm history on the back of high oil prices and record US refining margins (CNBC)
ExxonMobil also beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates amid disruption in energy markets from the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran war (WSJ)
What we're watching this week:
Today: Apple, Palantir
Tuesday: AMD, Supermicro, Apollo, Shopify
Wednesday: Qualcomm, Uber, Novo, McDonald's, CAVA, CVS
Thursday: Iren, Airbnb
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
Priced in?
Sign up to trade on the Polymarket US app with code LIT and they'll send you a $25 bonus
Headline Roundup
Big Tech returns smallest share of cash to shareholders in 15 years (RT)
Apple overtook Nvidia as world's most valuable company (BBG)
US Treasury borrowed a record $839B in auctions last week (BBG)
China is exploring more stock market stimulus (BBG)
India was the world's top IPO market in October (BBG)
Junk debt rout sparks 'bloodbath' for credit investors (FT)
Bond investors sit out 'most consequential' midterm elections in years (FT)
Wall Street is starting to call the shots in America's AI build-out (WSJ)
AI investors are racing to get insurance on market bets (WSJ)
AI boom drives jump in lending but bankers are still cautious (WSJ)
Data centers vow to step up disclosures to local communities (BBG)
ETF managers find loopholes to offer concentrated funds (WSJ)
Meta builds humanoid robot with Chinese startup Fourier (TI)
Sam Altman says it's wasteful to have RAM for your own PC (IGN)
Polymarket piled on media deals ahead of midterms (BBG)
PE is boosting Republicans over Democrats in midterms (BBG)
Kimi Antonelli becomes youngest-ever F1 world champion (ESPN)
A Message from Polymarket
Polymarket Institutional Research is a new publication exploring the intersection of Polymarket with the global financial system – original analysis built directly on our markets, written by the Institutional Desk. From Anthropic's valuation strip, to the Hormuz reopening gap, to the future of Lagarde at the ECB.
If your financial institution is looking to engage with event contracts, the Polymarket Institutional Desk is scaling up. For information on block trades, market making, and commercial data sales on either our US or international exchanges, reach out below.
What's inside:
Weekly market briefings
Deep dives on forecast scenarios and LP opportunities
Quarterly liquidity & microstructure reports with full depth data
Direct access to our research team via dedicated Slack
Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
PE firms CD&R and GTCR are exploring an LBO of $25B-listed payments processor Global Payments
Spanish transport company Autobuses de Leon offered to acquire UK coach and rail services company Mobico for $3.1B, including debt, at a 55% premium
Dutch retail chain Ahold Delhaize will acquire the Czech and Slovakia business of UK supermarket chain Tesco at a $2B enterprise valuation
Gencom and White Bridge Capital acquired the InterContinental hotel in Miami from a Chinese entity for $300M
Activist hedge fund Fund 1 Investments is looking to take-private Xponential Fitness, the $220M-listed owner of Club Pilates and Pure Barre brands, at an 87% premium
Snacks giant Mondelez International will acquire a majority stake in healthy snacks maker Undercover Snacks
ExxonMobil increased its stake in the planned Rovuma LNG gas project in Mozambique from 25% to 50% after a swap with Italian energy giant Eni
QHP Capital acquired digital clinical trial patient recruiter AutoCruitment
Activist Oasis Management is pressuring Vail Resorts to sell some mountain assets
VC
OpenAI is now seeking to raise a lower $20B at a lower $1.25T valuation in its final pre-IPO round
Baseten, an AI inference company, is in talks to raise a $2B round at a $30B valuation led by Sands Capital
UK chip startup Fractile raised $772M Series C at a $6.4B valuation
Dulo, an AI startup building foundation models for engineering and hardware design, raised a $130M seed round from Marc Benioff, John Doerr, Eric Schmidt, Lowercarbon Capital, and others
PowerLattice, a chip startup that cuts power demands of AI processors, raised $86M of a planned $111M funding round
Solink, a company turning business camera infrastructure into AI vision intelligence, raised $100M in new financing led by Vertu Capital
&Truth, a universal verification machine for code, raised a $70M seed round
Phase, an operating-layer startup for the AI agent economy, raised $45M in founder funding
AvalonX, an AI-powered offensive security startup, raised $10M in funding from Ridown Capital
Audio Chateau Records, a music label and content/partnership studio, raised a $9M Series A from CW Ventures
Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable
IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Portugal is exploring raising its 8% stake in $16B-listed oil company Galp Energia after the collapse of merger talks with Spain's Moeve
Portugal's state holding company Parpublica bought a 5.3% stake in $2.6B-listed power and gas grid operator REN from insurer Fidelidade, which is controlled by Chinese conglomerate Fosun
SoftBank-backed Nigerian fintech Opay withdrew its $304M US IPO after a regulatory inquiry
I&I-focused Bambusa Therapeutics raised $160M for a $765M market cap in its IPO
Biotech Aspen Neuroscience raised $140M for a $433M market cap in its IPO
Iceland's main tourist attraction Blue Lagoon plans to raise $112M in an Iceland IPO
SPAC / SPV
Humanoid robotics maker Agility Robotics will merge with Churchill Capital Corp XI to raise a lower $465M
Debt
Commodities giant Trafigura signed a $1.5B loan to back a five-year gas supply contract with SEFE
Kyrgyzstan is planning a debut yuan bond sale after it raised $700M in its first eurobond sale in 2025
Lenders to Partners Group-backed Iberian agri products maker Rovensa are looking to offload debt at a discount as the firm burns through cash
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
A US bankruptcy judge allowed chatbot platform Character.AI to proceed with a sale of its assets to Disney despite objections from state AGs
Funds / Secondaries
Quant-focused hedge fund Xantium plans to spinout from hedge fund Tudor Group with a record $9B in AUM
QHP Capital raised a $2.1B CV for Azurity Pharmaceuticals led by HarbourVest Partners
Credit hedge fund Arini sold off $800M in debt due to margin calls after dropping 20% YTD
Second Alpha raised $170M for its fifth secondaries PE fund
Crypto Sum Snapshot
CZ tells Musk 'bad time to troll' after record Binance hack
Binance sees spike in withdrawals after resuming transactions
Binance covered $6B of $6.3B stolen in hack
Crypto exchanges call for quick moves to bolster defenses after Binance heist
50 US companies now oppose having their stocks tokenized
Uber joined HSBC and Franklin Templeton in blockchain investing test
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Lit's Picks
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FT published unprecedented data on AI's impact on the labor force showing that productivity is surging in sectors that are adopting AI.
WSJ says the smartest people in AI believe this is the world's most important chart.
Also, The Economist published some findings on how people from richer countries are less likely to have a positive perception of AI. "First World problems" lol. It's always the well-off who have the most to be miserable about.
Check out this chart on Anthropic's growth, placed alongside 24 other of the fastest-growing companies in history.
@Deedydas shared an interesting table on the top 50 most talent-dense breeding grounds for founders. Definitely some surprises at #3 and #23.
FT published a brief primer on how the $6.3B Binance hack unfolded in 30 minutes. Read it here.
In honor of Halloween 2026, Leading Indicators published the The Monsters of Finance X: 100 finance accounts on X, sorted into 10 kinds of monsters. These are some of the best accounts to follow to craft the perfect algorithm.
OFF-MARKET❤️🔥
Ditch the dating apps. Connect over some fine wine instead. Off-Market Vol. 2
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