Still No Answer on China

Author

Litquidity Capital
August 28, 2025

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Good Morning,

BlackRock pushed back against politics in pension fund management, M&A activity is booming this summer, Meta Superintelligence is already losing key hires, Porsche is searching for a new CEO, and Nvidia beat earnings but failed to give any clues on their China market.

Despite all the tariff noise and market volatility, IPO markets seem to be coming back to life. Check out Mizuho's outlook on IPO markets in Q3.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 8/27/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks closed slightly higher yesterday as investors awaited Nvidia's earnings

    • S&P hit a record high

  • Japan stock indexes are hitting new ATHs in a 'ninja stealth rally' driven by global investors

  • UK 30Y gilt yield rose to 5.64% near a 26-year high on fiscal woes

  • Chinese yuan hit its highest versus dollar since November 

Earnings

  • Nvidia beat on Q2 earnings, revenue, and Q3 guidance on a 56% sales increase but missed on data center revenue and excluded China from forecasts amid trade uncertainty, causing shares to dip 3% AH (CNBC)

  • HP beat Q3 revenue estimates on strong demand for AI-powered PCs and the Windows 11 upgrade, successful supply-chain rebalancing out of China, and continued momentum from both AI adoption and the OS refresh (RT)

  • CrowdStrike issued a Q2 beat-and-raise on record net new ARR boosted by demand in enterprise AI transformation, though Q3 revenue guidance came in short (WSJ)

  • Snowflake beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and issued a strong FY forecast as a 32% rise in product sales eased fears of slowing demand and AI competition (BBG)

  • MongoDB issued a Q2 beat-and-raise as customer additions surged past 5k in H1 with many new clients identified as AI-native companies (CNBC)

  • Kohl's beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and narrowed FY sales guidance though sales declined with lower and middle-income consumers trading down and the firm attempting a turnaround after a CEO exit (CNBC)

  • Abercrombie issued a Q2 beat-and-raise despite slowing sales growth amid strength in its Hollister brand and expectations for international expansion and partnerships to drive growth (CNBC)

  • Lego posted record H1 earnings and revenue as sales rose 12% to $5.4B on the back brand tie-ups, record-high set launches, and global store growth (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: TD Bank Group, Best Buy, DICK's, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General

    • Friday: Alibaba

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • It's finally F1 race weekend after a month-long (second??) summer break!

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • US is not eyeing a stake in Nvidia (RT)

  • US doubled India tariffs to 50% (RT)

  • EU moves to shield aluminum from US tariff blow (RT)

  • US firms are planning to buyback shares at record pace (BBG)

  • M&A topped $1T in in busiest August since 2021 (BBG)

  • China stocks are set for their best hedge fund inflows in six months (RT)

  • Earnings misses trigger sharp selloffs in Australian stocks (BBG)

  • Nvidia may set tone for booming AI leveraged ETF market (RT)

  • BlackRock decries 'politicizing' pension fund management (RT)

  • Microsoft is complicating OpenAI's corporate restructuring efforts (FT)

  • Dallas woos Scotiabank hub with $2.7M in incentives (BBG)

  • Meta will launch a California super PAC backing pro-AI candidates (RT)

  • Meta Superintelligence Labs is already losing key staff (BI)

  • Google eliminated one-third of middle managers (CNBC)

  • Musk tries to stop OpenAI from obtaining bid documents from Meta (RT)

  • Porsche started the search for a new CEO (BBG)

  • Amazon will extend corporate pay structure to Whole Foods employees (RT)

  • Job market is hot for 'AI native' grads with pay exceeding $1M (WSJ)

  • US is holding talks on postwar plan for Gaza (FT)

  • Taiwan charged three for stealing trade secrets from TSMC (BBG)

  • Trump called for racketeering and corruption charges against hedge fund legend George Soros (FT)

A Message from Mizuho

Is the long-awaited return of the IPO market finally upon us? 

This year, the IPO market is on track to surpass last year's ~$30 billion of issuance, as tech IPOs rebound and a wave of diversified companies hit the market, led by tech, industrials, defense and sponsor-related transactions. As we head into the remainder of the year, what are the key trends that equity capital investors should be looking out for?

Mizuho's experts outline their post-Labor Day outlook, anticipating a rise in IPO activity across TMT areas – including companies benefiting from artificial intelligence tailwinds, cryptocurrency, broader fintech, cybersecurity and infrastructure software. They also touch on Mizuho's recent deals and give their thoughts on the expected Fed's rate cuts in September and the potential impact on financial sponsors.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Shipbuilding company HD Hyundai Heavy Industries agreed to acquire affiliate HD Hyundai Mipo in a $5.5B all-stock deal

  • Japanese insurance giant Sompo agreed to acquire property-casualty insurance firm Aspen Insurance for $3.5B at a 36% premium

  • Bain Capital-owned luxury outerwear retailer Canada Goose received take-private bids at a $1.4B valuation

  • Harvest Midstream agreed to acquire some of MPLX's natural gas gathering and processing assets for $1B

  • PE firm GTCR acquired telecom software provider Innovative Systems for $500M

  • Jannie Mouton Foundation agreed to acquire South Africa's top private-education group Curro for $400M

  • Activist Plantro is urging Canadian tech and services company Calian Group to consider a sale of all or part of its business

  • Singapore's state-owned investor Temasek and Nexus Capital Management agreed to acquire minority stakes in California-based financial planning firm Post Advisory from Principal Asset Management and Nippon Life Insurance

VC

  • TikTok-owner ByteDance is launching an employee share buyback at an over $330B valuation

  • Vercel, a startup helping companies develop web and AI apps in the cloud, is raising a few hundred million dollars at a $9B valuation led by Accel

  • Assort Health, a startup using AI to automate patient communication, raised a $50M Series B at a $750M valuation led by Lightspeed Venture Partners

  • Aurasell, a startup building an AI-native CRM platform, raised a $30M seed round from Next47, Menlo Ventures, and Unusual Ventures

  • InstaLILY, a startup building AI teammates for enterprise industries, raised a $25M Series A led by Insight Partners

  • Holo, a UAE-based fintech platform focused on the homebuying experience, raised a $22M Series A led by Impact46

  • Aurelian, a startup building an AI voice assistant to triage non-emergency calls, raised a $14M Series A led by NEA

  • Axenya, a Brazilian health tech startup, raised a $12M Series A led by Canary and Indicator Capital

  • Terraton, a startup turning agricultural waste into CO2-sequestering fertilizer, raised an $11.5M seed round led by Lowercarbon Capital and Gigascale Capital

  • Boost My School, a fundraising platform for K-12 educational institutions, raised $10M in funding led by High Alpha

  • Vox AI, a startup offering AI voice interaction for drive-thru, mobile ordering, and in-restaurant operations, raised an $8.7M seed round led by Headline

  • Central, an autonomous back office platform for startups, raised an $8.6M seed round led by First Round Capital

  • Heave, a platform connecting construction companies with on-demand heavy equipment mechanics, raised a $7M Series A led by Outsiders Fund

  • Sleep.ai, a startup providing AI-powered sleep solutions, raised a $5.5M round led by Treasure Coast Ventures

  • Bench IQ, an AI-powered judicial intelligence platform, raised a $5.3M seed round led by Battery Ventures and Inovia Capital

  • Mantic, a startup building an AI system to predict global events, raised a $4M pre-seed round led by Episode 1

  • Payment Labs, a fintech specializing in payment solutions, raised a $3.3M seed round led by Aperture Venture Capital

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Japan Bitcoin proxy firm Metaplanet plans to raise $880M in an overseas stock issuance

  • Activist Elliott built a stake in Los Angeles-based REIT Rexford Industrial Realty to become a top-5 shareholder 

Debt

  • GTCR is in talks to raise private credit from KKR to fund its $5.8B bid for Advent-owned Czech generic drugmaker Zentiva

  • South Korea is considering a $1.8B dollar bond sale

  • Blackstone is seeking to extend the $957M loan backing its $1.6B LBO of Singaporean precision engineering firm Interplex from Baring Private Equity Asia

  • A group led by BMO is seeking to relaunch an $850M loan supporting PE firm HIG's $910M acquisition of Converge Technology Solutions

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • The City University of New York (CUNY) will acquire struggling Metropolitan College of New York's Manhattan campus for $40M

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • The property investment arm of China's JD.com, Swiss PE firm Partners Group, and Singapore-based EZA Hill Property are planning a $1B Singapore REIT

  • Asset manager Elbridge is targeting $1B for a new GP-solutions fund

  • SeaTown, a unit of Singapore SWF Temasek, raised over $612M for its third Asia-focused private credit fund

  • Clean-energy infrastructure investor GDEV Management raised $200M for its latest fund targeting batteries and EVs; the fund is fully committed

  • African infrastructure impact investor Africa50 raised $118M for its infrastructure fund

  • Finnish economic impact investor Finnfund raised $93M for its latest tech-focused fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • A niche crypto arbitrage trade is gaining traction among hedge funds

  • Stablecoin groups Circle and Paxos are testing new tech to verify crypto payments

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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    Get $250 credit with code LIT250 on signup.

  • Allison Schrager wrote a great piece on the advantages that boomers faced in their wealth accumulation, pretty much answering why boomers have more money than anyone else.

  • Signs are emerging that AI is having an effect on entry-level jobs. Check out WSJ's report on the same.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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