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BlackRock's bond CIO is suddenly the favorite for Fed chair, Bridgewater CIOs say AI spending could reshape the economy, bond traders are hiking duration risk on a Fed rate cut pause, US raised tariffs on South Korea after trade deal delays, and startups are increasingly buying startups as AI reshapes the competitive landscape.
With prediction markets emerging as a truth engine for global capital, Polymarket is documenting the strategies used by top decile traders to profit from information inefficiencies on their platform. Read more below.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 1/26/2026 market close.
Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks gained yesterday as investors braced for a big week of earnings
EM stocks and FX hit ATHs
Korea's small-cap KOSDAQ index soared 7% to a 25-year high
Dollar fell to a four-year low
EM-dollar carry trade is up 1.3% YTD following its best year since 2009
Gold and silver continued to surge to new ATHs
Natural gas jumped 30% due to the nation-wide winter storm
Earnings
What we're watching this week:
Today: UnitedHealth, Boeing, UPS, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Union Pacific, GM, American Airlines
Wednesday: ASML, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Starbucks, IBM
Thursday: Apple, Visa, Lockheed Martin, L3 Harris, Honeywell, Southwest Airlines
Friday: American Express, Verizon, Chevron, ExxonMobil
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
The 'BlackRock owns everything' crowd is not going to like this one. BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder is suddenly the favorite for Fed chair.
Trade the Fed chair succession on Polymarket.
Headline Roundup
Trump signals shift on immigration crackdown as ICE backlash intensifies (FT)
US government is set to shutdown on ICE controversies and funding (BBG)
US long-term unemployment hit a four-year high (FT)
US raised tariffs on South Korea after trade deal delays (CNBC)
Venezuela oil reform attracts investments but deeper change necessary (RT)
Canada PM Carney plans global trips as Canada trade pivot intensifies (RT)
Bond investors raise duration risk amid Fed rate cut pause (RT)
Startups are increasingly selling to other startups (PB)
Bridgewater CIOs say AI spending frenzy could reshape the economy (RT)
Junk bond sales soar in Europe as US-Greenland tariff threats fade (BBG)
Risk arbitrage hedge funds see open deal window with biotech at top (BBG)
European IPO market starts 2026 at record pace in revival dream (FT)
Europe stock inflows last year was bigger than whole previous decade (BBG)
80% of LPs choose liquidity over rolling into continuation funds (PEI)
Senegal is now the only African debt in distressed territory (BBG)
Blackstone eyes more Asia hiring as demand booms (BBG)
Morgan Stanley will expand MUFG ties in major Japan push (BBG)
LVMH investors demand clarity on Bernard Arnault succession plan (RT)
US Treasury canceled contracts with Booz Allen over tax return leaks (CNBC)
PwC will resume work on pitches to Saudi PIF as ban ends (BBG)
Ex-Citigroup exec sued bank over sexual harassment by wealth CEO (FT)
Meta, TikTok, and YouTube will face trial on teen harm claims (WSJ)
A Message from Polymarket
What Smart Money Knows
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, with a 90%+ accurate track record on interest rates, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks.
When you read The Oracle by Polymarket, you'll learn to think like the top 0.1% of forecasters on Polymarket, traders who stop at nothing to develop unique insights on the news.
The Oracle takes you inside their unusual playbooks.
What's inside:
🔮 He Made $300k Betting on a "Narcissistic Sociopath"
@RememberAmalek bought Mamdani at 8% odds by finding mathematical errors in polls the market trusted. He turned $800 into $1.4M on Polymarket.
> Read how
🔮 $286 to $1M from 'Reversing Stupidity'
@Semi doesn't predict winners. He finds the dumbest bets and takes the other side.
🔮 Just Call Them
Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. reveals his playbook for special situations research. From paying homeless guys to surveil government offices, to the dark arts of FOIA requests, and getting executives to spill their guts on calls.
Subscribe free to The Oracle by Polymarket. Learn to think like a world class forecaster.
Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
PE firms Blackstone, Brookfield, EQT, and CVC, Japanese industrial equipment maker Yanmar, and others are weighing bids for a majority stake in Volkswagen's heavy diesel engine unit Everllence in a deal that could fetch $6B-$7B
Canadian miner Allied Gold will acquire Hong Kong peer Zijin Gold in a $4B take-private at a 27% premium
Engineering firm Leidos agreed to to acquire utility consulting and engineering firm Entrust Solutions from PE firm Kohlberg for $2.4B cash
Quantum computing firm IonQ will acquire chipmaker SkyWater in a $1.8B cash-and-stock deal at a 40% premium
European family office EP Group submitted a $1.25B take-private offer for French multinational retailer Fnac Darty
CVC will acquire credit-focused Marathon Asset Management in a $1.2B cash-and-stock deal
Asterion Industrial Partners-owned Italian fiber carrier Retelit is considering an $825M sale of its data center business
Abu Dhabi's state oil giant ADNOC bought another 7.6% stake in the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas from BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners
VC
UK AI video startup Synthesia raised a $200M Series E at a $4B valuation led by GV
AI-native property operations platform Visitt raised a $22M Series B led by Susquehanna Growth Equity
Virtual GI and metabolic care startup Salvo Health raised an $8.5M Series A co-led by ManchesterStory, City Light Capital, and Threshold Ventures
Access the complete VC data and deal flow on Fundable.
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Nvidia invested an additional $2B in $50B-listed AI cloud computing firm and client CoreWeave
Electrical equipment maker Forgent is seeking to raise $1.6B at an $8.8B valuation in an IPO
Bain Capital-backed furniture retailer Bob's Discount Furniture is seeking to raise $370M at a $2.5B valuation in an IPO
Jennifer Garner's kids snacks maker Once Upon a Farm is seeking to raise $210M at a $765M valuation in an IPO
Power management company Eaton plans to spin off its vehicle and e-mobility unit
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is buying GameStop shares
SPAC
Biotech investor Cormorant Asset Management raised $150M for SPAC Helix Acquisition Corp. III, which won't necessarily focus on healthcare
Debt
Italian lender UniCredit plans to issue SRTs tied to $6B of loans
Oil giant Saudi Aramco priced a $4B bond sale
Goldman Sachs sold a $2.5B US investment-grade bond less than two weeks after its $16B raise
Scotland began a bake off for its $2.1B debut bond sale
Trinidad and Tobago completed a $1B dollar-bond sale
Kenya plans to borrow $970M in short-term syndicated loans
Cameroon sold $750M of dollar-denominated bonds for the first time since 2024
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
Lenders to bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands are exploring a liquidation after its $1.1B DIP loan collapsed
Apollo took a loss on a portion of a $170M ABF for e-commerce brand aggregator Perch that was wiped out
Clearlake Capital-owned bottle and jar manufacturer Pretium Packaging reached a restructuring deal with a majority group of lenders
New Fortress Energy is working on a restructuring support agreement that would see creditors get preferred equity
SK Capital-backed specialty chemicals producer Archroma is preparing talks for a debt extension
Funds / Secondaries
PE firm Leonard Green & Partners raised $3.6B for its debut GP-led secondaries fund
European MM PE firm CedarBridge Capital Partners launched a third growth fund with $150M to invest in the GCC
BlackRock's private credit BDC BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. plunged 13% yesterday after a 19% NAV write-down
Franklin Templeton will fold its European private credit unit Alcentra into its US counterpart Benefit Street Partners
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Tether bought 27 tons of gold in Q4
Crypto misses the macro trade as retail dives into gold and stocks
Crypto traders flee to prediction bets after $150B crash
Son of DOJ-contracted crypto exec stole $40M in crypto from US
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
Kanye West took a full-page ad in the WSJ to apologize for his racist behavior. Read his letter here.
Bloomberg published an incredible piece on the importance of labeling. The case at hand: Gen Z's preference of Pepsi Zero Sugar over 'radioactive' Diet Pepsi.
Financial Services Recruiting 💼
If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).
We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.
We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.