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Good Morning,
Oil prices fell and stocks rose on easing Strait of Hormuz concerns, though US is struggling to rally allies to exert control over the strait.
Also worth noting how private credit woes aren't fading in the Iran distraction, with major players constantly offering contrasting opinions as investors begin to flee.
With prediction markets emerging as a truth engine for global capital, Polymarket is documenting the strategies used by top percentile traders to profit from information inefficiencies on their platform. Read more below.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 3/16/2026 market close.
Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks rallied yesterday as Strait of Hormuz concerns eased
S&P posted its best day since February
Dubai's DFM General index fell 3.2% to enter a bear market
Global bonds rallied
US Treasuries also recovered after turning negative YTD
China 30Y yield rose to 2.4% to the highest since September 2024
Oil prices fell
Bitcoin hit a six-week high
Earnings
Dollar Tree beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on 5% same-store sales growth driven by wealthier shoppers but issued a cautious outlook as core low-income customers pull back (BBG)
What we're watching this week:
Today: OKLO, lululemon
Wednesday: Micron, Tencent, Macy's, General Mills
Thursday: Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, Darden Restaurants
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
Real ball knowers know that markets are sleeping on Vanderbilt
Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market
Headline Roundup
US allies refuse US request for help on Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
US is letting Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
Trump requested to delay Xi meeting due to Iran focus (CNBC)
Bond traders buck inflation threat with diverging rate bets (BBG)
Apollo exec sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets (WSJ)
Private credit strains ripple through Wall Street as investors grow wary (RT)
Retail investors pull billions from private capital's credit gold mine (FT)
Big Tech's AI shadow borrowing bolsters private credit risks (BBG)
Canada's Maple 8 count cost of PE slump (FT)
SEC prepares proposal to eliminate quarterly reporting requirement (WSJ)
Cboe submitted a proposal to launch 24/5 US equities trading (RT)
Musk's xAI is hiring bankers and credit lenders to teach Grok finance (BBG)
Nvidia forecasts $1T in chips revenue through 2027 (BBG)
Wiz founders form family office after $32B exit to Google (CT)
Bank of America settled Epstein accusers' lawsuit (RT)
Cuba suffers nationwide blackout as energy grid collapses (BBG)
A Message from Polymarket
What Smart Money Knows
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, with a 90%+ accurate track record on interest rates, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks.
When you read The Oracle by Polymarket, you'll learn to think like the top 0.1% of forecasters on Polymarket; traders who stop at nothing to develop unique insights on the news.
The Oracle takes you inside their unusual playbooks.
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Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
Italian lender UniCredit launched a $28B lowball offer for control of German peer Commerzbank after an 18-month stalemate in hopes to resume talks
Self-storage company Public Storage agreed to acquire National Storage Affiliates in a $10.5B all-stock deal, including debt, to create a $77B enterprise
Finnish elevator maker Kone is in talks to acquire Advent and Cinven-backed rival TK Elevator in a cash-and-stock deal, with owners seeking a $29B valuation, including debt
Apollo is in talks to buy a significant minority stake in CVC-backed German packaging machine maker Syntegon at a $4.6B valuation
Warburg Pincus is weighing a $2.5B-$3B sale of subprime auto lender Exeter Finance
Malaysian construction giant Sunway's $2.8B bid for rival IJM Corp faces uncertainty after the board unanimously urged shareholders to reject the offer
Italian medical equipment manufacturer Amplifon agreed to buy the hearing-aid business of GN Store Nord in a $2.6B deal
Singapore SWF GIC is considering selling its stake in a Tokyo office building for well over $1B
Alibaba-affiliate Ant Group is is nearing completion of its $360M purchase of Hong Kong brokerage Bright Smart Securities & Commodities
Drone maker AeroVironment acquired aerospace engineering firm Empirical Systems Aerospace in a $200M cash-and-stock deal
VC
ReNew Green, ReNew's commercial and industrial clean energy platform, raised a $95M investment led by LeapFrog Investments
Scanner, a security data platform developer, raised a $22M Series A led by Sequoia Capital
Choice, a Czech restaurant SaaS and QR ordering platform, raised a $7.1M Series A led by Alea Capital Partners
SURF Music, a creator-economy music platform, raised a $6.3M pre-Series A from YG Plus, Enigmo, Rainbow Entertainment, and others
Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable
IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Asian data center operator DayOne is set to file confidentially for a $5B IPO
Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries hired banks for an India IPO of its telecoms unit Jio Platforms to potentially raise $4.3B at a $170B valuation
Seniors-focused REIT Janus Living is seeking to raise $740M at a $5B valuation in an IPO
Baidu-backed AI and life sciences startup BioMap confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO
Walmart-backed Indian fintech PhonePe paused plans for an India IPO amid geopolitical tensions
SPAC / SPV
Crypto wealth platform Abra will merge with New Providence Acquisition Corp. III in a $750M deal
Debt
Banks led by JPMorgan attracted $19B in demand already for the $15B debt sale meant to finance the record $55B LBO of video game maker Electronic Arts
Swiss pharma giant Novartis sold $11B of US high-grade bonds to help fund its $12B acquisition of Avidity Biosciences
The investment arm of Hong Kong holding company Chow Tai Fook Enterprises is seeking to refinance a $935M loan
Jaguar Land Rover paused a US bond sale due to market volatility
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
Bankrupt luxury retailer Saks Global's bondholders approved a five-year business plan, including tapping another $300M of its $1.75B DIP financing as it progresses towards exiting bankruptcy
Funds / Secondaries
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is seeking to raise $13B for its ninth mezzanine debt fund to profit from disruptions in credit markets
OpenAI is in advanced talks to form a $10B JV with TPG, Bain Capital, Advent, and Brookfield to bolster AI adoption at PortCos, with the PE firms committing $4B
Canada's CPPIB is looking to sell $1.5B of Asia PE LP stakes in mid-2010 vintages of Hillhouse Investment, Bain Capital, and PAG
Millennium pulled its $1B investment from equity L/S hedge fund Scopia after just one year
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Judge rules SBF's mom cannot call court on behalf of SBF
Strategy bought nearly $1.6B of Bitcoin in its largest purchase since January
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
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We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.