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Good Morning,

Activist investing hit a record in Japan, TikTok's CEO met with Trump, day trader spirits are as alive as ever, Europe is struggling to regain its footing, and SoftBank committed to investing $100B in the US over the next 4 years.

Deal flow is surging, but your modeling shouldn't slow you down. Mosaic is the secret weapon top funds swear by to build models in minutes, not hours. Try 'em out and see why their digital deal modeling platform is taking the industry by storm.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks mostly rose yesterday as investors awaited the Fed’s rate decision 

  • Dow fell for an eighth-straight day in its worst streak since 2018

  • Nasdaq rose to a fresh record

• Europe stocks are set to underperform US by the most in 25 years

  • Stoxx 600 dipped further yesterday after snapping a three-week win streak

  • US-Germany 10Y spread widened 70 bps to 216 bps in the past three months

  • Euro is down 5% YTD vs dollar

• Bitcoin rallied past $107k to a new record

Earnings

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Wednesday: Micron, General Mills

  • Thursday: Nike, FedEx, CarMax, Accenture

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Uneventful days call for unexciting markets, unless you crave a white Christmas☃️

• Trade your predictions on a range of notable (and trivial) events on Kalshi. Get a $20 bonus when you deposit $100 with with code LIT on signup!

Headline Roundup

• Nasdaq topped NYSE in listings for a sixth-straight year (RT)

• CEO optimism soared to the highest in years amid Trump win (WSJ)

• The US consumer 'vibecession' is over (CNBC)

• US manufacturing hit the lowest level since Covid (RT)

• Activist investing hit a record-high in Japan (BBG)

• China bankers struggle with low pay, few deals and fear of arrests (BBG)

• Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating over deteriorating finances (RT)

• TikTok's CEO met with Trump as company attempts to stop the app ban in the US (CNBC)

• SoftBank will invest $100B in US projects over the next four years (WSJ)

• European activist hedge fund Bluebell is shutting down (BBG)

• Day trader spirits prove hard to kill at market's riskiest edges (BBG)

• Google unveiled its latest video AI model to rival OpenAI's Sora (TC)

• Latest EU carbon auction was the cheapest since 2020 (BBG)

• Lamborghini delayed its first EV launch to 2029 (RT)

• Canada's finance minister resigned (WSJ)

• Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson was sentenced 10 years for fraud (WSJ)

• Syria retains 26 tons of gold reserves after Assad's fall (RT)

• Global mental health crisis hits workplaces (FT)

A Message about Mosaic

Model with Mosaic

With deal flow finally returning, it’s worth rethinking how we spend time building models. That's why I want to highlight a platform that's quickly becoming a game-changer in deal modeling Mosaic.

Mosaic was recently featured in Bloomberg and FT for their next-gen technology that allows investment professionals to build LBO models in mere minutes.

Built by private equity veterans, it’s designed to tackle the complexity and accuracy required for top-tier deal analysis - while eliminating the tedious tasks we all know too well.

With new integrations for CapIQ and FactSet, Mosaic now seamlessly pulls real-time market data, making modeling faster and smarter than ever.

The biggest investors are already saving hours with Mosaic. I wish I had this during my PE days as it's quickly becoming the industry standard.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• A consortium of Blackstone and SWFs GIC and ADIA emerged as the top bidder for a 20% stake in India's Haldiram Snacks, which may fetch an ~$8B valuation 

• Goldman Sachs Asset Management will acquire a majority stake in Dutch generic drugmaker Synthon from BC Partners at a $2.1B valuation

• German real estate firm Vonovia offered $1.27B in stock to minority shareholders of majority-owned Deutsche Wohnen to gain full control of the subsidiary

• Boston lenders Berkshire Hills Bancorp and Brookline Bancorp agreed to merge in a $1.1B all-stock deal

• CVC is exploring a purchase of French media giant Vivendi’s 24% stake in Telecom Italia for ~$1.1B

• Blackstone is exploring a sale of Grand Wailea Resort in Hawaii, which it acquired from GIC for $1.1B in 2018

• Real estate giant Greystar acquired a student housing portfolio in Australia from GIC and Wee Hur Holdings for $1B 

• Youngor Fashion is nearing a deal to acquire Alibaba's department store business Intime for ~$1B

• Infrastructure investor ArcLight Capital Partners will acquire a 25% stake in Phillips 66's Gulf Coast Express pipeline for $865M

• Universal Music Group will acquire indie music specialist Downtown Music Holdings for $775M

• Belgian insurer Ageas agreed to acquire UK insurer Saga's insurance underwriting business in a $186M deal

• Brand-management firm WHP Global agreed to acquire wedding dress-maker Vera Wang

VC

• Vantage Data Centers, a global leader in hyperscale data center campuses, raised $1.5B from GIC and MEAG

• Precision Neuroscience, a brain-computer interface startup, raised a $102M Series C led by General Equity Holdings

• CredibleX, a UAE working capital finance platform for SMEs, raised a $55M seed round led by Further Ventures

• Keepit, a cloud native data protection and backup provider, raised a $50M round led by One Peak and EIFO

• Bnewable, a Belgian startup specializing in battery systems and energy management for businesses, raised $43M in funding from RGREEN INVEST, Dovesco Fund Investments, and more

• Unrivaled, a professional women's basketball league, raised a $28M Series A led by the Berman family

• Askable, an on-demand research and insight delivery platform, raised a $15.1M Series A led by Airtree Ventures

• Chargezoom, a platform for AI-powered billing and integrated payments, raised an $11.5M Series A led by Kickstart Fund

• Xcoub, a startup specializing in the DeFi staking space, raised a $7M Series A

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Chinese fast-fashion retailer Shein, last valued at $66B, is seeking regulator approval to list a less than 10% stake in its London IPO

• LG Electronics is considering increasing the valuation of its Indian unit to $15B for its planned $1B-$1.5B India IPO

• State-backed Saudi Global Ports is planning a $1B local IPO

• Honeywell International is exploring a spinoff of its aerospace business amid activist pressure

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Distressed Indonesian textile giant Pan Brothers is close to a $537M debt restructuring 

• The Container Store is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Fundraising

• Constellation Wealth Capital closed its debut fund at $1B to invest in independent wealth managers

Crypto Corner

• MicroStrategy bought $1.5B of Bitcoin to increase its holdings to $45B (BBG)

Exec’s Picks

• Public Bitcoin mining stocks have yet to pay dividends. Meanwhile, Chicago Atlantic offers monthly distributions with annualized returns of 32.3% through its Digital Mining Fund. Now open to all accredited investors.

• Scott Sumner wrote an insightful piece on the multitude of factors behind Europe's economic malaise.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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