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Good Morning,

Stephen Miran resigned from his White House role, PayPal fired its CEO, Nvidia is considering investing in OpenAI's IPO, investors are ramping up steepener bets on a Kevin Warsh Fed, bankers are readying for the busiest IPO week in five years, and software and private credit BDC stocks are tanking on AI disruption fears.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/3/2026 market close.

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks sunk yesterday despite a metals rebound as investors dumped tech stocks on AI-related software jitters

  • MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 3.1% in its best day since April on a metals rebound and fresh AI optimism 

    • Korea's KOSPI index rebounded 6.8% to a fresh ATH

    • Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 4% to a fresh ATH

  • Germany 30Y yield climbed to 3.56% to its highest since 2011 

    • Germany 5Y-30Y yield spread widened to 108 bps to a seven-year high

  • Precious metals rebounded from a historic selloff

    • Gold had its best day since 2008

  • Dollar dropped after notching its biggest back-to-back advance since April

  • Bitcoin hit its lowest since Trump's November 2024 election 

Earnings

  • UBS beat Q4 earnings estimates and announced a $3B buyback as it's CEO prepares to step down amid 'great progress' on 'one of the most complex integrations in banking history' (CNBC)

  • AMD beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on growing AI demand but missed on guidance as its outlook failed to meet a high bar (CNBC)

  • Supermicro issued a Q4 beat-and-raise on robust demand for its AI-optimized servers (RT)

  • PepsiCo beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on improving organic sales and signaled snack price cuts this year to support demand (CNBC)

  • PayPal missed Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on a faltering turnaround and persistent weak growth and rising competition; the firm fired its CEO who twice failed to meet targets after raising guidance (BBG)

  • Chipotle reported mixed Q4 results but forecast flat same-store sales growth after traffic declined for a fourth-straight quarter (CNBC)

  • Merck beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on strong cancer drug demand but issued weak FY guidance on looming patent expirations and generic competition (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Alphabet, UBS, Uber, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk

    • Thursday: Amazon, Shell, Reddit, Roblox

    • Friday: Toyota

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

Headline Roundup

  • Goldman's defense of woman exec's Epstein relationship puts bank in predicament (BBG)

  • Trump signed bill to end US government shutdown (CNBC)

  • Builders plan to develop 1M 'Trump Homes' in affordability push (BBG)

  • Fed's Stephen Miran resigned from White House post (CNBC)

  • Investors ramp up yield curve steepener bets on Kevin Warsh Fed (RT)

  • Australia raised rates for the first time since 2023 (CNBC)

  • Non-US markets are at all-time highs (TL)

  • Private credit BDCs continue to sink on software risk (BBG)

  • Traders dump software stocks as AI fears erupt (BBG)

  • Fintechs and builder stocks emerge as key midterm trading themes (BBG)

  • PE exits rose last year but returns fell (CNBC)

  • Bankers are readying for the busiest IPO week since 2021 (BBG)

  • Blackstone says 2026 is shaping up to be 'year of the IPO' (BBG)

  • Ken Griffin says US dollar has lost some shine (RT)

  • Blackstone says AI disruption risk is 'top of the page' (RT)

  • Apollo co-founder Josh Harris warned against retail money in PE (RT)

  • Activist Nelson Peltz is open to more buyouts (RT)

  • Walmart hit a $1T market cap (RT)

  • Intel is moving into GPUs (CNBC)

  • Disney named Josh D'Amaro as new CEO (CNBC)

  • PayPal named HP CEO Enrique Lores as new CEO (BBG)

  • French police raided X's Paris office (RT)

  • Global governments crack down on Musk's xAI after AI images (RT)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • Investors will receive 0.1433 shares in Musk's SpaceX for every share of Musk's xAI as part of their $1.25T merger

  • Spanish lender Banco Santander is considering a deal to acquire US-based bank Webster Financial in a $12.2B deal

  • Germany will buy a 25.1% stake in the German unit of Dutch state-owned power-grid operator TenneT in a $3.9B deal

  • European PE firm EQT is weighing a sale of its stake in SaaS firm Thinkproject at a  $1.8B valuation

  • Danish investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire Danish state-owned energy giant Orsted's European onshore business for $1.7B

  • Activist investor Donerail offered to take-private super yacht service company MarineMax in a $1.1B all-cash deal

  • UK PE firm Castleforge is in talks to acquire a London's CityPoint office tower from Brookfield for $623M

  • Medical device maker Medtronic will buy smaller peer CathWorks in a $585M deal

  • PE firm Advent agreed to invest $304M for a 14.3% stake in Indian mortgage lender Aditya Birla Housing Finance

  • South African hotel group Southern Sun agreed to acquire a 50% stake in four properties in Johannesburg's business hub from Liberty Group for $46M cash

VC

  • OpenAI is nearing a deal to raise $20B from Nvidia as part of its $100B funding round

  • Aviation automation startup Skyryse raised a $300M+ Series C at a $1.15B valuation led by Autopilot Ventures

  • Kindred, a community-driven home-swapping platform, raised $125M: a $40M Series B co-led by NEA and Figma CEO Dylan Field and an $85M Series C led by Index Ventures

  • Women's health tele-medicine startup Midi Health raised a $100M Series D at an over $1B valuation led by Goodwater Capital 

  • Ares Interactive, a cross-platform free-to-play game developer, raised a $70M Series A led by General Catalyst

  • Kings League, a creator-led seven-a-side soccer league, raised a $63M round led by Alignment Growth

  • Clean-label dairy brand Good Culture raised a $55M investment led by SEMCAP Food & Nutrition and L Catterton

  • Alaffia Health, an AI-driven payment integrity platform for health plans, raised a $55M Series B led by Transformation Capital

  • UK digital insurance platform Artificial Labs raised a $45M Series B led by CommerzVentures

  • Software-supply-chain security startup RapidFort raised a $42M Series A round led by Blue Cloud Ventures 

  • ORION Security, an autonomous DLP startup, raised a $32M Series A led by Norwest

  • Orchard, a digital real-estate marketplace, raised a $30M round from existing investors

  • Avalanche Energy, a compact-fusion startup, raised a $29M round led by R.A. Capital Management

  • Mitra EV, a commercial fleet-electrification startup, raised $27M from Ultra Capital and S2G Investments 

  • MaiaEdge, a federated private networking infrastructure startup, raised a $20M Series A round led by management and G20 Ventures

  • Bot-defense startup Kasada raised a $20M round led by EQT 

  • AI dating startup Ditto raised a $9.2M seed round led by Peak XV Partners 

  • UK AI-driven materials science startup Polaron raised an $8M round led by Racine2 

  • AI enterprise research startup Arbor raised a combined $6.3M pre-seed and seed round led by 645 Ventures  

Get real-time updates on any startup, VC, or sector on Fundable.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • KKR is preparing a US IPO of global beauty firm Wella Company that could fetch an over $4.3B valuation

  • India's largest jewelry manufacturer Emerald Jewel is weighing raising $300M in an India IPO

  • Arko Petroleum, the fuel wholesaler subsidiary of convenience store firm Arko Corp., is seeking to raise $210M at a $900M valuation in an IPO

  • Nvidia is considering investing in OpenAI's eventual IPO

  • Japan's Fuji Media unveiled a $1.5B share buyback plan to end Yoshiaki Murakami high-profile activist campaign after taking a 17% stake

Debt

  • Bank of America sold $7B of investment grade bonds

  • Banks are preparing to sell $3.75B of debt to back infrastructure investor Stonepeak's $10.1B acquisition of a majority stake in BP's lubricants business Castrol

  • Saudi Aramco raised $4B in a bond sale with strong investor demand 

  • RIA-focussed PE firm investor Wealth Partners Capital Group raised $400M in private credit from Ares 

  • Bankers are working on $2.9B debt packages to back a potential $4.7B-$5.9B acquisition of German automotive parts supplier Continental's industrial ContiTech unit, with EQT, CVC, KPS, and Blackstone as potential suitors

  • Bitcoin miner-turned-AI factory Cipher Mining plans to sell $2B in senior secured notes to finance an Amazon data center 

  • Hong Kong's largest developer Sun Hung Kai Properties is seeking a $650M loan after skipping its annual refinancing last year

  • Singapore-listed CapitaLand India Trust Management plans to raise $550M in rupee-denominated debt

  • Saudi National Bank is considering SRT deals to maximize its capacity to bankroll the Saudi Arabia's $2T Vision 2030 agenda

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • First Brands founder Patrick James and exec/brother Edward James posted $50M and $25M bonds respectively, secured partly by a Hamptons home, as they await trial on fraud charges

Funds / Secondaries

  • Asian PE firm Primavera Capital is exploring raising ~$4B for a new Asia-focused PE fund

  • Tekmerion Capital Management will spin out its macro hedge fund from Brevan Howard with over $1B in LP commitments from Engineers Gate, Michael Novogratz, and others

  • Sports investor Otro Capital raised $1.2B for its first flagship PE fund

  • Investment firm HighVista Strategies raised $800M for its eleventh PE fund

  • New Jersey's pension fund is proposing a $300M real assets commitment to French PE firm Ardian's infrastructure secondaries platform, split between a secondaries fund and a co-investment vehicle

  • Asset manager Eurazeo raised $567M for a private credit continuation fund with participation from Pantheon

  • Consumer-focused VC Cavu Consumer Partners raised $325M for its fifth fund to focus on health-conscious consumer products

  • Investment firm CAZ Investments launched a fund for individuals to take stakes in private-asset firms

  • Canadian investment firm Dawson Partners will debut a credit secondaries strategy

  • Three MDs of Peak XV Partners, previously Sequoia Capital India, will depart to launch their own fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Crypto.com launched predictions-only platform ahead of Super Bowl

  • CFTC chief says pending crypto bill will make US the 'gold standard' for crypto regulation

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

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