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Recession❌ Detox & Transition✅

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Litquidity Capital
March 10, 2025

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Good Morning,

Junior bankers are seeing no reprieve from AI, hedge funds lost half their YTD gains in one day last week, Cadillac will join as F1's second American team, and the White House is using all sorts of euphemisms to avoid the word 'recession.'

Invest in institutional-caliber private markets with 10 East, a membership-based investment platform offering targeted exposure to PE, VC, and more.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 3/7/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks regained some ground on Friday as investors digested economic data and trade sentiment

    • S&P 500 suffered its worst week since September

    • S&P 500 companies have lost over $3T in market cap since February 19 

  • Germany’s 30Y bund yield rocketed to 3.1% to the highest since July 2023

    • German bonds posted their worst seek since the fall of the Berlin Wall 

  • Japan 10Y yield rose to 1.57% to its highest since 2008 

  • Dollar lost 2.3% in its worst week since November 2022

    • Dollar is down 5% since mid-January and at a four-month low

  • Euro gained 5% in its best week since 2009

    • Euro and pound hit their highest versus the dollar since November 

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Oracle, Franco-Nevada

    • Tuesday: Kohl's, Dick's

    • Wednesday: Adobe, American Eagle

    • Thursday: DocuSign, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Junior bankers see no work reprieve despite AI tools (BBG)

  • CEO exits hit a record high in January (BJ)

  • Trump says US economy faces 'transition' (BBG)

  • J Pow signaled potential change to Fed's 'dot plot' rate projections (RT)

  • US unemployment rate edge higher to 4.1% (CNBC)

  • China core CPI showed deflation for the first in four years (RT) 

  • Hedge funds gave up half of YTD gains in Thursday's selloff (RT)

  • US equity funds saw the largest weekly outflow in four weeks (RT)

  • VC funding rose to a three-year high on AI frenzy (FT)

  • Big banks are boosting eurozone's 2025 economic forecast (RT)

  • Millennium's index rebalancing strat has lost $900M YTD (BBG)

  • Nasdaq is planning 24-hour trading (BBG)

  • Japan posted a current account deficit for the first time in two years (RT)

  • PBOC bought gold for a fourth-straight month (BBG)

  • DoorDash will join the S&P 500 (RT)

  • Elliott took a $725M short position in French energy firm TotalEnergies (FT)

  • Chinese investors are privately taking stakes in Elon Musk's companies (FT)

  • Google founder Larry Page has a new AI startup (TI)

  • US dropped a proposal forcing Google to sell its investment in Anthropic (RT)

  • Apple released new products in rare early-year frenzy (BBG)

  • HPE will cut 2.5k hobs as tariffs hurt outlook (WSJ)

  • Perella Weinberg M&A and ex-RX partners are fighting in court (BBG)

  • 36 companies account for 50% of global emissions (FT)

  • RFK Jr. will meet with food execs this week (RT)

  • Mark Carney will become Canada's new prime minister (WSJ)

  • Cadillac will join Formula 1 in 2026 (ESPN)

A Message from 10 East

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Exec Sum readers can join 10 East with complimentary access here.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • US is in talks with four different investor groups about the sale of TikTok

  • Seven & i is engaging with Couche-Tard on ways to ease antitrust concerns amid a potential $47.5B buyout

  • Bain and UK advertising group WPP will break up and sell market research group Kantar, including a $6.5B sale of its Worldpanel unit

  • German insurance giant Allianz is in exclusive talks to acquire Cinven-owned insurance firm Viridium at a ~$3B valuation

  • A group comprising KKR and Stonepeak Partners raised its offer UK healthcare landlord Assura to $2.1B

  • Norwegian O&G firm DNO agreed to acquire Sval Energi Group for $1.6B, including debt

  • Packaging maker Silgan is weighing a potential sale of its custom containers unit, which could fetch over $1B

  • $666M-listed UK energy giant Serica Energy is in talks for an all-share merger with $300M petroleum exploration company EnQuest

  • India's Sun Pharma will buy US-based Checkpoint Therapeutics for $355M

  • The Allyn family acquired a 15% stake in Wrexham AFC, a tiny Welsh football club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, at a $130M valuation

  • Software firm ServiceNow is nearing a deal to buy AI firm Moveworks

  • UAE's ADNOC is seeking to acquire natural gas fields in the US, complementing recent chemical and LNG acquisitions

  • Swiss private bank J. Safra Sarasin agreed to buy a 70% stake in Danish fintech Saxo 

  • Portugal's stake sale in airline TAP is likely to be delayed for several months amid a political crisis

  • PE firm Veritas plans to merge education firms Cambium Learning and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

  • European online retailer Zalando secured a 90% stake in peer About You with plans to squeeze-out of minority shareholders

VC

  • Across, an Ethereum interoperability startup, raised a $41M round led by Paradigm

  • Firsthand, an AI-powered brand agent platform, raised a $26M Series A led by Radical Ventures

  • Card collection marketplace CollX raised a $10M Series A led by Brand Foundry Ventures and 114 Ventures

  • AI-powered product assistant for enterprise software Beacon.li raised a $7M Series A led by Sorin Investments

  • AI-powered software testing platform Momentic raised a $3.7M seed round led by FundersClub

  • PhaseTree, a startup accelerating the discovery of sustainable materials, raised $3.2M in funding from Heartcore Capital

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Japanese insurance giant Nippon Life is considering taking a 9.9% stake in India's $8.4B-listed IndusInd Bank

  • Hinge Health, a digital physical therapy startup last valued at $6.2B in 2021, plans to file for an IPO as soon as this week

  • Mining giant Rio Tinto scrapped plans for a $5B share sale following investor pushback, deciding to fund its $6.7B acquisition of Arcadium Lithium with debt instead

  • Uzbek gold miner NMMC is preparing a a London IPO at a ~$5.2B valuation

  • General Atlantic-backed SMG Swiss Marketplace selected banks for a Swiss IPO at a potential $5B valuation

  • JX Advanced Metals raised $3B in Japan’s biggest IPO since 2018

  • Activist investor Mantle Ridge built an over $1B stake in IT consulting firm Cognizant

  • Knowledge Realty Trust filed for a $711M India IPO in what could be India's largest REIT IPO ever

  • ADNOC and data analytics firm Presight AI are in early talks to revive an IPO of their AI JV AIQ

  • German pharma giant Bayer is seeking shareholder approval to raise billions in an equity raise of 35% of its current share capital

  • Zurich Insurance Group increased its stake in $16-listed Spanish lender Banco Sabadell to ~4%, becoming its second-largest investor amid Sabadell's defense against a hostile takeover bid by BBVA

  • Once Upon a Farm, the organic baby food company co-founded by Jennifer Garner, is weighing an IPO as soon as this year

  • Gemini, the crypto exchange backed by the Winklevoss twins, filed confidentially for an IPO

  • Crypto exchange Kraken is preparing an IPO for Q1 2026

Debt

  • UK's Virgin Group aims to raise $900M to fund a new cross-channel rail service to compete with Eurostar

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Hong Kong holding companies Chow Tai Fook and Far East Consortium helped Australian casino operator Star Entertainment avoid collapse by purchasing its $33.5M stake in a Brisbane casino; American betting company Bally's offered a $158M capital injection that could potentially convert to a 50.1% holding

  • Canada's oldest retailer Hudson's Bay is planning to file for bankruptcy

Fundraising

  • China is launching a $140B VC fund to support emerging technologies, including quantum computing 

  • Blackstone raised $8B for its Real Estate Debt Strategies V fund

  • Ex-NFL star Marques Colston raised $100M for his new Champion Venture Partners, an alternative assets fund for athlete investors

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Crypto leaders met at Trump's summit to speak on US strategic reserve

  • Banks and fintechs are joining the 'stablecoin gold rush' 

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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