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Good Morning,
The gold bubble seemingly popped, OpenAI is hiring ex-bankers to train AI models, SWFs are driving the biggest M&A deals, Trump canceled his meeting with Putin, Travis Kelce partnered with a hedge fund on an activist campaign, and the US Army is partnering with PE megafunds for a $150B overhaul.
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Diversify beyond volatile stocks and bonds with Percent, a highly democratized private credit market for exclusive private credit deals.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 10/21/2205 market close.
Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks closed mixed yesterday as investors digested major Q3 earnings
Dow closed at an ATH
US 30Y yield fell to its lowest in six months
Gold fell 6.5% in its worst day since 2013
Silver dropped 9% in its worst day since 2021
EM FX implied volatility has been lower than developed peers' for seven months
Earnings
Western Alliance beat Q3 earnings estimates and most other projections on a 27% profit rise, easing credit concerns stemming from exposure to fraud-linked loans
Coca-Cola beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and reaffirmed its FY outlook after reversing Q2's unit volume decline, though demand remained soft among lower-income consumers
Netflix missed Q3 earnings estimates due to a Brazilian tax dispute but posted 17% revenue growth and record ad sales, with Q4 revenue seen rising 17%
Capital One beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates as profit rose 79% amid lower delinquencies and a 54% jump in net interest income
3M beat Q3 earnings estimates and raised its FY profit outlook again as its turnaround plan gains traction
RTX beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates and raised its FY profit outlook as strength in aerospace and defense offset tariff pressures, sales rose across all divisions
General Motors beat Q3 earnings estimates and raised FY and 2026 guidance on improving EV losses, lower warranty costs, and smaller tariff impacts
Lockheed Martin beat Q3 earnings estimates and raised its FY outlook on strong missile and space sales and a record $179B backlog
What we're watching this week:
Today: Tesla, AT&T
Thursday: Intel, American Airlines
Friday: Procter & Gamble, Booz Allen Hamilton, General Dynamics
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
There goes that.
Headline Roundup
OpenAI hired 100 ex-IB professionals to help train AI models in finance (BBG)
Trump canceled his meeting with Putin (AX)
Europe and Ukraine prepared a 12-point proposal to end Russia war (BBG)
Earnings offer upbeat view in absence of economic data (BBG)
Prediction markets trading volume surpassed 2024 election peak (BBG)
BoE governor warned of 'alarm bells' ringing over private credit (FT)
US banks are exposed to $300B of private credit debt (BBG)
Wells Fargo CEO sees no cracks in banking system (RT)
SWFs are driving the biggest deals in $3.5T M&A year (BBG)
Secondaries dealmaking hit its quickest pace in four years (AA)
Private credit secondaries are luring LPs across the board (SI)
EQT plans to invest $250B in US over next five years (BBG)
German banks are pushing PE funds to retail investors (FT)
Beyond Meat soared 146% after addition to meme ETF (CNBC)
Goldman set up a private wealth management team in Saudi Arabia (RT)
OpenAI launched AI browser Atlas to rival Google (TC)
Walmart paused job offers to H-1B visa candidates (BBG)
BCG named a new chief risk officer after Gaza controversy (FT)
Ex-Archegos head trader William Tomita will avoid prison (BBG)
US is offering nuclear companies access to weapons-grade plutonium (FT)
OnlyFans has paid creators $25B since 2016 (BBG)
A Message from Percent
Diversify Your Portfolio from Market Volatility – With Private Credit
Worried about a stock market correction? Private credit may offer an alternative.
While public markets continue to swing, private credit has historically offered more consistent performance and lower correlation to equities. On Percent, accredited investors gained access to a wide variety of private credit opportunities – and in 2024, the platform's marketplace saw average net returns of 14.9%.
With shorter terms and monthly interest, private credit may help diversify and stabilize your portfolio in uncertain times.
Lower Correlation to Public Markets
Shorter Terms for Flexibility
Monthly Income Potential
Starting at $500
Alternative investments are speculative and possess a high level of risk. No assurance can be given that investors will receive a return of their capital. Those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest. Investments in private placements are highly illiquid and those investors who cannot hold an investment for an indefinite term should not invest. Private credit investments may be complex investments and they are subject to default risk.
Deal Flow
M&A / Investments
US Army asked 15 PE firms including Apollo, Carlyle, KKR and Cerberus to pitch 'meaty' strategic projects to help fund a $150B infrastructure overhaul
Warner Bros. Discovery rejected a $50B offer from Paramount Skydance
Warner Bros. Discovery is exploring a sale of the company or spinoff of some media assets including the Warner Bros. film and TV studios, HBO and cable networks including CNN and TNT
Blackstone and TPG agreed to acquire medical device maker Hologic for $18.3B, including debt
European aerospace and defense firms Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo are nearing a merger of their space businesses to rival Musk's SpaceX
GE-spinoff GE Vernova will pay $5.3B in cash and debt to buy the 50% stake it doesn't already own in transformer-maker Prolec from JV partner Xignux
Coca-Cola bottling giant Coca-Cola HBC agreed to buy 75% of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa from Coca-Cola and Gutsche Family Investments in a $2.6B deal
National Fuel Gas will acquire CenterPoint Energy's natural gas local distribution business Vectren Energy Delivery for $2.6B
Insight Partners-backed Veeam Software agreed to acquire AI corporate data company Securiti AI for $1.73B in cash and stock
Coinbase acquired crypto investment platform Echo for $375M in cash and stock
PayPal acquired a 30% stake in German digital commerce company Shopware from a Carlyle to raise its stake to 41%
Luxury fashion conglomerate LVMH is exploring a sale of its 50% stake in its Fenty Beauty JV with Rihanna
Top VC picks by Fundable
Fal.ai, a startup hosting image, video, audio, and multimodal AI models for developers, raised a ~$250M round at a $4B+ valuation led by Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia
Seneca, a startup building autonomous aerial fire suppression systems, raised a $60M round led by Caffeinated Capital and Convective Capital
AI-based IT service management startup Serval raised a $47M Series A led by Redpoint Ventures
Findem, an AI talent acquisition and management solution, raised a $34M Series C led by SLW
Hyro, an AI agent platform for healthcare, raised a $45M round led by Healthier Capital
European AI startup Nexos.ai raised a $35M Series A at a $350M valuation led by Index Ventures and Evantic Capital
Estuary, a right-time data platform, raised a $17M Series A led by M13
Gravwell, a full-stack data analytics and security platform, raised a $15.4M Series A led by Two Bear Capital
Cercli, an AI-powered HR platform for MENA, raised a $12M Series A led by Picus Capital
Tycho.AI, an unmanned aerial vehicle tech company, raised a $10M Series A led by FirstMark
Institutional BTC finance startup BitcoinOS raised a $10M round led by Greenfield Capital
Moonshot AI, a platform that turns websites into self-optimizing living organisms, raised a $10M seed round led by Mighty Capital
Avid, an AI-powered fundraising OS for nonprofits, raised a $6.5M seed round led by Silverton Partners
Casium, an AI-powered immigration and mobility platform for enterprises, raised a $5M seed round led by Maverick Ventures
Yaga, a sustainable fashion marketplace, raised a $4.6M pre-Series A led by Specialist VC
Stay plugged into every corner of the startup landscape with Fundable.
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Chinese chipmaker CXMT plans to raise ~$5B at a $42B valuation in a China IPO
Ant Group and MUFG-backed Philippine fintech GCash is delaying its $1B-$1.5B Philippine IPO to H2 2026
UK speciality lender Shawbrook is seeking a to raise $480M at a $2.7B valuation in its London IPO
A group led by activist hedge fund Jana Partners took a 9% stake in $2.6B-listed theme-park operator Six Flags and teamed up with NFL star Travis Kelce to push for changes including a potential sale
Activist hedge fund Engaged Capital built a stake in $8B-listed machine vision systems maker Cognex and is pushing for changes
Indonesian nickel mining and processing company Anugrah Neo Energy Materials is planning to raise over $300M in an Indonesia IPO
Consumer goods giant Unilever is delaying its spinoff of Magnum Ice Cream unit due to the US government shutdown
DraftKings acquired a CFTC-regulated exchange Railbird Technologies in push into prediction markets
Debt
Meta struck a $27B financing deal with Blue Owl Capital to fund its biggest-ever data center project in Louisiana
BlackRock ETFs were among the biggest investors in the $27B private credit deal backing Meta's data center in Louisiana
Citigroup, Barclays, and Bank of America are among banks providing $12.3B of debt to back Blackstone and TPG's $18.3B LBO of Hologic
World Bank agreed to lend over $2B to Uganda
A consortium of banks led by Santander sweetened terms of a $1.5B loan backing Thoma Bravo's $2B take-private of Verint Systems
PE firm Madison Dearborn Partners is pursuing a $1.3B debt raise as part of its planned $2.7B re-acquisition of a consortium of wealth management assets from insurance giant Aon
Apple-supplier Foxconn plans to raise $580M in a debut euro bond sale
Dubai-based Property Finder raised $250M in private credit from Ares
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
US banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are hesitant to lend $20B to Argentina without guarantees or collateral
Deutsche Bank and hedge fund Carronade Capital are trying to block a $10B restructuring deal between struggling European packaging giant Ardagh Group and bondholders
Creditors to Purdue Pharma approved a plan to exit bankruptcy and pay $7.4B to communities and individuals as part of opioid-addiction lawsuits
Brazilian waste-management company Ambipar is seeking bankruptcy protection
Struggling UK utility Thames Water pushed back a decision to appeal a regulator ruling on how much it can charge customers and return to investors
Fundraising / Secondaries
Tech-focused PE firm Diversis Capital raised $1.2B for its third fund
Mining-focused investor Appian Capital announced a $1B partnership with the World Bank's private sector arm to back projects in Africa and Latin America
Finnish VC Lifeline Ventures raised $464M for its sixth fund
FOF investor HighVista Strategies raised $270M for its fourteenth VC FOF focused on emerging managers
VC Asymmetric Capital Partners raised $137M for its sophomore fund
Healthcare investment firm OrbiMed is raising its latest flagship fund
Tiger Grandcub Glen Kacher's tech investment firm Light Street Capital is raising a third VC fund
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Altcoins are stuck below post-FTX lows as crypto risk appetite sinks
Rare earths mining is having a crypto moment
Russia is creating a legal system for crypto to avoid sanctions
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
Fraudsters are exploiting generative AI. Plaid partnered with MIT Technology Review to break down what methods criminals are using, how AI-enhanced security can help, and what tools can keep your business safe. Read the report here.
Newsletters were just the beginning. beehiiv is hosting their Winter Release 2025 on November 13th to unveil a bunch of new stuff for the creator ecosystem. A must-watch for anyone in social media and content creation. Reserve your spot here.
Blair duQuesnay gave some clarity on the age-old dilemma of when to sell a winner.
Upcoming Events ⛳️
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Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼
Litney Partners
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.