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Good Morning,

HRT began trading in prediction markets, OpenAI is already trying to shape the 2028 election, Musk's Texas gamble is at risk of becoming a liability, Apple cut daily AI spending allowance for ⁠devs, and a Democrat is suddenly leading prediction market odds for the presidency after JD Vance dominated for eighteen months straight.

Today's letter is brought to you by F2, whose new deal agent, Adam 2.0, is built on the first adaptive harness for global credit. See it on your own deals. Try a demo.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 11/4/2026 market close.

Powered by Model ML, the agentic operating system for financial services, banking, consulting, PE, and asset management

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot*

Markets

  • US stocks rallied yesterday after Democrats swept the midterms

    • S&P had its best day since early August

    • Dow had its best day since April 2025

    • Nasdaq rallied on bets that Democrats will save AI spenders from themselves

    • Data center and chip stocks declined 

  • China's stock market has wiped out $3T in value after falling into a bear market to reverse a year of gains

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index soared 3.5%

    • Hang Seng Tech index is set to rise for a fifth-straight day for its longest win streak since July 2025

  • Oil fell for a fourth day 

Earnings

  • Qualcomm beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but issued a weak forecast as the memory shortage weighs on smartphone sales (CNBC)

  • Uber beat Q3 revenue estimates but missed on earnings on slight weakness in its core mobility segment attributed to rising fuel costs and lower driver availability (CNBC)

  • Novo issued a Q3 beat-and-raise as sales of its Wegovy pill blew past estimates amid continued GLP-1 volume growth globally (CNBC)

  • McDonald's beat Q3 earnings estimates but missed on revenue as its US business fell short on execution, particularly on implementation of its value offerings (CNBC)

  • CAVA missed Q3 earnings and revenue estimates on a hit from the explosive diarrhea outbreak as well as higher costs tied to labor and capex (WSJ)

  • CVS beat Q3 earnings estimates and announced plans to split into two to separate its pharmacies from its insurance business (RT)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Iren, Airbnb

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • JD Vance is suddenly no longer the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election. Looks like the Democrats have found their candidate following a blowout midterms

  • Sign up to trade on the Polymarket US app with code LIT and they'll send you a $25 bonus

Headline Roundup

  • PE likely to face investigations following Democrat sweep (WSJ)

  • Musk's Texas gamble becomes liability after flipping blue (BBG)

  • Blue wave keeps wealth taxes on agenda despite California setback (FT)

  • Prediction markets got election outcomes right (RT)

  • JD Vance blamed Iran war for Republican election defeat (AX)

  • OpenAI is already trying to shape the 2028 election (TC)

  • Europe will invest $600M in chip startups to catch up with US and China (RT)

  • Treasury tweaked debt sale guidance (BBG)

  • China boosted stock market stimulus (BBG)

  • Hedge funds flag growing private credit risks amid rising rates (BBG)

  • China robot funding slowed to $1.6B last month (BBG)

  • HRT began trading in prediction markets (BBG)

  • Sequoia hits rewind, undoing 20 years of expansion (TC)

  • Oracle canceled a $7B chip deal with Tencent under Trump pressure (FT)

  • Majority of OpenAI revenue is enterprise sales (RT)

  • Apple cut daily AI spending for ⁠engineers from $300 to $200 (BBG)

  • Accenture published an AI paper littered with AI hallucinations (FT)

  • Google extends voluntary employee buyout offers to several countries (RT)

  • Activist DGB ousts Ethan Allen chairman to win board control (BBG)

  • Caitlin Clark inks deal to become face of DICK'S (BBG)

  • US diesel deal with Russia falters as US fuel supplies hit 20-year low (FT)

  • US private payrolls rose by 86k (CNBC)

A Message from F2

Adam 2.0 stays on the deal from screening to IC memo

Create a deal and Adam is assigned to it. He reads the full data room, builds the model in live Excel, drafts the memo and deck on your templates, and stays with the work all the way through IC:

  • Full data room read: hundreds of files indexed and screened against your criteria

  • Live Excel: models built with real, checkable formulas

  • Specialized Adams: complex, multi-step workflows orchestrated across agents, each on the best model for the task

  • Memory that doesn't fade: Adam learns from your deal team and picks the deal back up months later

"Their document understanding and quality of output is second to none," per the Director of a $65B private credit and equity fund.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • Biotech AstraZeneca made a $10B offer for obesity drugmaker Rhythm

  • Mitsui Chemicals plans to acquire chipmaking materials ‌maker JSR from Japanese SWF JIC for $8.2B

  • German pharma company Boehringer Ingelheim signed a licensing deal worth $7B with China's Sino Biopharmaceutical for experimental cancer treatments

  • China blocked SoftBank's $5.4B acquisition of Swiss industrial company ABB's robotics division 

  • EnCap Investments is exploring a sale of oil producer Enduring Resources IV at a $4B valuation, including debt

  • Multiple investors are interested in acquiring Italian bike maker Ducati from Volkswagen for potentially $1.4B 

  • Solar tech supplier Shoals Technologies agreed to merge with ARRAY Technologies in a $1.32B all-stock deal ‌at a 7% discount

  • Agri-commodities group Andersons agreed to buy low-carbon ethanol producer Harvestone from Bridgepoint Group's Energy Capital Partners for $915M

  • Empower Brands Holdings, the Oaktree-backed home and personal care business of Spectrum Brands, made a hostile cash bid for consumer products firm Helen of Troy offering a $1.6B valuation, including debt, at a 30% premium after numerous approaches were rejected

  • One Rock Capital Partners will acquire 70% of the North America coffee business of Kraft Heinz at a $650M valuation, including debt

  • China General Technology is considering acquiring Kellenberger, a Swiss maker of high-precision grinding, milling and turning machines, from Centre Lane Partners for $400M

  • Merger talks between $13B-listed UK medtech Smith+Nephew and Johnson & Johnson's orthopedics ​unit collapsed

  • Indonesia's state energy firm Pertamina agreed to acquire the Algerian assets of Mubadala-owned Spanish energy firm Moeve

VC

  • Sales automation startup Nooks raised $500M from General Catalyst

  • AI-powered robotic imaging startup Laza Medical raised a $160M Series B led by GE HealthCare 

  • Sentra, a data security company, raised a $150M Series C led by Capital One Ventures 

  • Pliant, a German B2B payments platform, raised an $80M Series C led by Seaya Nova and Speedinvest

  • bit.bio, a human cell programming company, raised a $25M Series D with participation from M&G Investments and Dr Jonathan Milner 

  • Brava Security, an AI security startup that simulates attacks to test detections, raised a $15M seed round led by Pitango and F2 VC

  • Finpilot, an AI-native OS for institutional capital, raised a $10M Series A led by Lobby Capital

  • Phaze, a high-performance remote access company for people and AI agents, raised an $8.75M seed round led by a16z

  • Capybobo, a Web3 IP project focused on community culture and digital outfits, raised an $8M funding round led by Pluto Studio

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Chinese memory chipmaker YMTC paused its $5B China IPO amid regional market struggles

  • Semight Instruments, a Chinese maker of test instruments for semiconductors, picked banks for a $1B Hong Kong listing

  • Temasek-backed real estate firm Mapletree Investments picked banks for a $780M Singapore IPO

  • Quadria Capital-backed Indian contract drug manufacturer Encube Ethicals plans to raise $315M in an India IPO

  • Vietnamese tech company VNG Group is considering reviving its US listing to raise $300M at a $3B valuation

  • Czech unicorn online supermarket Rohlik Group is weighing a Czech IPO

  • A venture between Goodman Group and Digital Realty Trust offered to buy 9.9% of Aussie data center peer Nextdc at a 45% premium

SPAC / SPV

  • Bulgarian cargo drone developer Dronamics will merge with GP-Act III Acquisition Corp. in a $500M deal

Debt

  • Goldman Sachs and Apollo are in talks to sell portions of a $40B chip financing deal for SpaceX

  • Meta raised $10.1B in a debut euro debt bond sale that drew a record $60B of orders one day after selling $15B in dollar bonds

  • Bank of America and JPMorgan are preparing to launch a $2.4B debt financing to back CVC's $4.3B acquisition of International Flavors and Fragrances's food ingredients business

  • Benefit Street Partners closed a $1.1B CRE CLO backed by Surfhouse apartments in New Jersey

  • Canada's First Nations Finance Authority issued its largest-ever bond, adding $600M to a 2032 bond

  • Indonesia kicked off its first dollar bond sale since the MSCI fallout

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Apollo-backed broadband provider Brightspeed may file for bankruptcy by December 

  • Anchorage Capital Partners-backed legendary Aussie department store David Jones fell into administration after failing to strike a deal with landlords over a restructuring plan

  • Gibson Dunn is in talks to hire 120 lawyers from Weil as the firm dissolves

Funds / Secondaries

  • Sequoia raised $10B in new funds and announced a massive overhaul that includes undoing 20 years of expansion

  • Churchill Asset Management, an alternative credit specialist affiliate of ​​TIAA's Nuveen, raised $1.55B for its third junior capital opportunities fund to finance PE-backed firms

  • Private markets investor Hamilton Lane raised $430M for a debut GP-led secondaries strategy

  • Haya Hanna, a former investor at Belgian VC Hummingbird Ventures, is in early talks to raise her own fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Crypto's midterm spending spree stumbles on Democrats sweep

  • Democrats are preparing to investigate Trump's crypto ventures

  • Binance detected and prevented 57 cyberthreats linked to North Korea this year

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Lit's Picks

  • FT shared some interesting maps and charts highlighting the change in tide this midterms, i.e. the blue wave.

  • JD Vance had some thoughts about the Republican blowout in the midterms. One of the hottest posts on X regarding the elections. Read it here.

  • Also, if you're so smart, why do you make poor decisions? Turns out you're actually just dumb.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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