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Good Morning,

Yesterday was one of the most information-heavy days for markets in a while. We've got it all summarized for you, but one thing stands out: even the Fed isn't immune to Trump's politics.

The same VCs who invested in ebay, Uber, and Venmo before they got big are now backing another up-and-comer: Pacaso. Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso brings co-ownership to the $1.3T vacation home market. And you can invest in Pacaso as a private company today. Check out the offering.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks closed somewhat mixed yesterday as traders digested a slew of information including a historic Fed decision dissent, strong GDP and jobs data, blockbuster Mag 7 earnings, and last-minute tariff announcements

  • Rates traders lowered odds of a September rate cut from 65% to 50%

• China's CSI 300 index is up 5% MTD to match the S&P YTD

  • China bonds are set for their biggest monthly loss since March

  • CSI 300-China Treasuries correlation is headed to its most negative level since 2020

• US yields climbed across the curve

• Dollar is set for longest win streak since February

  • EM currencies fell for a fourth-straight day 

• Oil held near a six-week high as US targets India-Russia oil trade

• US copper slumped 20% in its worst day ever

Earnings

• Meta crushed Q2 with a beat-and-raise on the back AI-driven efficiency and gains across ad systems and broad DAU growth; the firm also raised CapEx projections amid its 'superintelligence' push marked by high-profile talent poaching, where compensation related to hiring will be the second-largest driver of expense growth (CNBC)

• Microsoft topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on continued growth in Azure cloud and cloud services and Office and forecast a record $30B in Q3 CapEx as its AI investment pays off; Microsoft became the second company ever to hit a $4T market cap (CNBC)

• Robinhood topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as options trading boosted transaction-based revenue, while crypto and equities lagged; the firm is closing the gap with Coinbase as it pushes beyond retail trading into full-scale wealth management (CNBC)

• HSBC Q2 profits fell 29% profits on an impairment charge to its stake in China's Bank of Communications and broad restructuring costs related to the bank's overhaul (FT)

• Kraft Heinz beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and reaffirmed its FY outlook as price increases helped offset a 2% drop in organic revenue amid inflationary pressures, competition, and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier options; the firm is planning a major breakup (BBG)

• Carvana topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on a sixfold surge in profit on record used car sales and $274M in loan gains (BBG)

• Ford beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates with US vehicle sales rising 14% as hybrid sales offset a slump in EVs; the firm reinstated FY guidance, despite a $2B net tariff hit contributing to its first loss since 2023, citing strong execution of its Ford+ plan and improved cost and quality controls (CNBC)

• Hershey beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates driven by strong sales and market-share gains in US confectionery and salty-snacks, though it lowered FY guidance due to rising tariff expenses and cocoa costs (MNS)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, Mastercard, Strategy, CVS Health, Roblox

  • Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• A hawkish J Pow put a September rate cut in doubt. But one thing is certain: even the Fed is susceptible to Trump's politics.

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• US Q2 GDP grew 3% YoY despite tariffs (CNBC)

• Fed held rates steady and gave no clues on September (CNBC)

• Fed saw its first double dissent since 1993 (CNBC)

• Fed does not consider government debt costs in rate policy (RT)

• Trump and Bessent embrace active management of US debt (WSJ)

• Trump and Dimon are talking again after years of tension (WSJ)

• US announced a trade deal with South Korea with 15% tariffs (CNBC)

• US announced a 25% tariff on India (BBG)

• US announced a 50% of Brazil (RT)

• US announced a 50% tariff on copper products (WSJ)

• US private-sector payrolls rose by 104k in July (BBG)

• China manufacturing declined for a fourth-straight month (CNBC)

• Equity L/S hedge funds are making a historic comeback (FT)

• Systematic funds are ramping up stock-buying (BBG)

• Boutique investment banks are upbeat about IPOs rebounding in H2 (BBG)

• Leveraged-loan launches hit a record $208B in July (BBG)

• Wall Street's big loans to EM spark risk worries (BBG)

• China bond traders are getting bowled over by stock bulls (BBG)

• EM revival hopes run into dollar difficulties (RT)

• Rio Tinto profits fell to a five-year low amid trade uncertainty (BBG)

• Microsoft and Meta added a combined $500B in market cap yesterday (RT)

• Evergrande faces delisting as China property debt revamp drags on (RT)

• China vies to unseat US in fight for $4.8T AI market (BBG)

• Starbucks is rolling out a healthier menu (BBG)

• Hermes says heir no longer holds shares worth $16B (BBG)

• High Noon recalled vodka seltzer packs mislabeled as Celcius (BBG)

• Bill banning Congressmember stock trading advanced in Senate (NYT)

A Message from Pacaso

Major investors bet big on this "unlisted" stock

When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That's why the same VC firms that backed Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso.

Disrupting the real estate industry once again, Pacaso's streamlined platform offers co-ownership of premier properties, revamping the $1.3T vacation home market.

And it works. By handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, Pacaso has already made $110M+ in gross profits to date.

Now, after 41% YoY gross profit growth last year alone, they recently reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

And you can join them as an investor for just $2.90/share.

This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the Nasdaq is subject to approvals.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Palo Alto Networks agreed to acquire Israeli cybersecurity firm CyberArk in a $25B cash-and-stock deal at a 26% premium

• South Africa launched a bidding process for a $22B grid expansion project to boost energy infrastructure

• French energy management giant Schneider Electric agreed to buy the remaining 35% stake in its India JV from Singapore SWF Temasek for $6.4B in cash

• Tata Motors, a unit of Indian conglomerate Tata, will acquire Italian truck maker IVECO for $4.3B amid a breakup

• Aston Martin agreed to sell its minority stake in Aston Martin F1 Team for ~$146M at a $3.2B valuation

• Bain Capital and KKR are eyeing bids for Japanese food and beverage firm Sapporo's real estate unit; which could fetch ~$2.7B

• Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is nearing a $2.5B takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy

• Ohio-based O&G firm MPLX is in advanced discussions to purchase midstream infrastructure provider Northwind Midstream Partners from Five Point Infrastructure for ~$2.3B

• Italian aerospace and defense tech firm Leonardo agreed to acquire IVECO's defense business for $1.95B

• New Mountain Capital is in advanced talks to acquire a 40% stake in accounting firm Wipfli at an over $1B valuation

• Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire a stake in derivatives trading software provider Trading Technologies at an over $1B valuation

• BC Partners entered exclusive talks to acquire Les Laboratoires Servier's generic drug unit Biogaran at an over $925M valuation

• CleanPeak Energy, a distributed energy platform, raised $322M from KKR to expand operations in Australia

• Coca-Cola agreed to divest CHI, a Nigerian beverage company that acquired six years ago

• KKR acquired a majority stake in HealthCare Royalty Partners, a $3B AUM firm that acquires rights to royalty streams from pharma companies

• KKR-backed infertility treatments firm IVI RMA Global acquired Gulf Capital's stake in its Middle Eastern fertility business

• Glencore JV Aquarius Energy acquired a 37% stake in Africa's largest oil storage site MOGS Saldanha from Oiltanking

• UK fintech giant Revolut is weighing buying a US bank to get a license

VC

• Ramp, a financial operations platform, raised a $500M Series E-2 at a $22.5B valuation led by ICONIQ

• AI text generation platform Writer raised a $200M Series C at a $1.9B valuation led by Premji Invest, Radical Ventures, and ICONIQ Growth

• Observability platform Observe raised a $156M Series C led by Sutter Hill Ventures

• Fleet tracking and driver safety startup Motive Technologies raised a $150M round led by Kleiner Perkins ahead of a potential IPO

• On-premise cloud computing startup Oxide raised a $100M Series B led by USIT

• Positron AI, a startup building semiconductors and inference hardware, raised a $51.6M Series A led by Valor Equity, Atreides Management, and DFJ Growth

• RD Technologies, a Hong Kong-based fintech group of companies, raised a $40M Series A-2 led by ZA Global, China Harbour, Bright Venture, and Hivemind Capital

• Sparrow, an end-to-end leave management solution provider, raised a $35M Series B led by SLW

• Human risk management platform Fable Security raised a $31M round from Greylock Partners and Redpoint Ventures

• Conversion, an AI-powered marketing automation startup, raised a $28M Series A led by Abstract

• eVTOL startup AIR raised a $23M Series A led by Entree Capital

• C8 Health, a best practices implementation platform for healthcare, raised a $12M Series A led by Team8

• Due, a UK borderless payment startup, raised a $7.3M seed extension led by Speedinvest

• AI-powered customs compliance startup Caspian raised a $5.4M seed round led by Primary Venture Partners

• ArcSpan, a publisher-first monetization platform, raised a $5.2M seed extension

• Rapidise, a startup building AI-connected devices, raised a $4M seed round led by Napino Tech Ventures and Teksun Microsys

• Retab, a developer-focused document automation platform, raised a $3.5M pre-seed round led by VentureFriends, Kima Ventures, and K5 Global

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Korean industrials conglomerate SK Group is seeking to raise $5.8B via share sales to restructure energy units and reduce debt

• India's Jio Financial Services plans to raise $1.8B in a share sale to its founders

• Tech investor Prosus sold over $250M in Chinese food-delivery app Meituan shares as it begins offloading a $4B stake

• Black Rock Coffee Bar confidentially filed for a US IPO which could fetch an over $1B valuation

• Kuwaiti O&G firm Action Energy is planning a Kuwait IPO in Kuwait's first energy listing since 2008

Debt

• Indian EV maker Ola Electric recently held talks to raise $116M in high-yield debt

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Dog-walking startup Wag, once valued at $650M, filed for Chapter 11 with plans to hand ownership to lender Retriever

Fundraising / Secondaries

• KKR raised $6.5B for its biggest credit fund yet, targeting private ABF deals

• KKR's insurance unit Global Atlantic secured a $2B commitment from Japan Post Insurance

• Media and entertainment investor HarbourView Equity Partners raised $630M for its music royalties fund

• PE firm Skyline Investors raised $125M for its debut fund focusing on 'micromarket' investment opportunities

• Canadian VC Yaletown Partners raised $100M for its third tech-focused VC fund

• Vietnam is seeking to raise $100M for a government-backed VC fund 

• Uncorrelated Capital raised $53M to debut its litigation finance-focused investment platform

• JPMorgan Chase is partnering with Independent Restaurant Coalition to launch a $4M grant fund to support restaurants impacted by natural disasters

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• JPMorgan and Coinbase partnered to link bank accounts and crypto wallets

• White House released a long-promised crypto report

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• AI is no longer just disrupting workflows – it's redefining how entire industries operate. That was a key takeaway from Mizuho's 2025 Technology Conference, a two-day event in New York City which brought together over 60 leading technology companies and nearly 300. Read more.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.