Together with

Good Morning,

Bessent spoke with Japan officials after a global bond selloff, Danish pension AkademikerPension will exit US Treasuries, BofA hired just 1% of grads from a 200k applicant pool, Netflix revised its bid for Warner Bros, and activist investors plan to push even harder for corporate breakups this year.

Mizuho's Nick Setyan published an insightful piece on the evolving earnings outlook for the fast-food and restaurant sector. Even slop bowl favorites like Chipotle are feeling the pressure. Read it here.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 1/20/2026 market close.

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks tumbled yesterday as investors digested escalating US-Greenland-Europe tensions

    • All three major indexes had their worst day since October

    • S&P erased all YTD gains

    • VIX hit its highest since November

  • Global stocks also fell 

  • Sovereign yields climbed after a global bond selloff on US-Greenland fears and Japan fiscal woes

    • Long-dated US yields hit a four-month high

    • UK 30Y yield rose 10 bps to 5.25% as G7's highest-yielding debt

    • Japan 40Y yield topped 4% for the first-time ever

    • Japan 30Y yield rose by the most since 2003

    • Japan 10Y yield surged 19 bps in its sharpest two-day rise since 2022

  • Long-dated munis yields rose 7 bps by the most since July on growing supply and geopolitical concerns

  • Gold surged to an ATH

  • Dollar dropped 0.7% in its worst day in over a month

Earnings

  • Netflix beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates as global paid subscribers hit 325M and ad-revenue more than doubled, but issued a cautious outlook amid higher content spending and deal-related costs; the firm revised its $83B offer for WBD (CNBC)

  • 3M beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but missed on FY profit forecasts as it seeks to re-orientate its product-line towards growing sectors like data centers in an uneven economy (BBG)

  • Interactive Brokers beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on strong growth in customer accounts, DARTs, and higher trading volumes (YH)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab

    • Thursday: Intel, Capital One,  P&G, GE Aerospace

    • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Elon Musk is floating the idea of buying Ryanair and installing a CEO named 'Ryan.' Not completely unrealistic given Musk's track record…

  • Trade your prediction on Musk's acquisitions on Polymarket.

Headline Roundup

  • ​​US-Greenland tensions rattled global markets ahead of Davos (WSJ)

  • Danish pension AkademikerPension will exit US Treasuries (BBG)

  • Bessent spoke with Japan officials after a global bond selloff (BBG)

  • Trump doubts Greenland threats will spoil US-Europe trade deal (BBG)

  • Global fund managers are the most bullish since July 2021 (RT)

  • Global stocks trounced US in chaotic 2025 (BBG)

  • Healthcare firms are choosing private credit over bank debt (BBG) 

  • SEA EM stocks are set for the strongest foreign inflows since 2024 (BBG)

  • Activist investors are eyeing more corporate breakups this year (RT)

  • Deal-starved SPACs flood market following bonanza year (BBG)

  • Secondaries dry powder is set to rise as LPs pile in (AW)

  • FOFs doing secondaries are adding conflict on top of conflict (PB)

  • US tariffs are starting to 'creep' into consumer prices (CNBC)

  • Saudi banks are borrowing abroad at the fastest pace ever (FT)

  • BofA will award $1B in equity bonuses to all non-exec employees (RT)

  • BofA hired just 1% of grads from 200k applicant pool (YH)

  • Delaware supreme court sided with Moelis over shareholder agreement (RT)

  • Danish lawmaker told Trump to 'f*ck off' during meeting (NYP)

  • Trump seeks 'decisive' options for Iran as assets move into Middle East (WSJ)

A Message from Mizuho

Major restaurant chains are stumbling this year. Chipotle has highlighted softer spending from younger guests, Starbucks is working through weaker US traffic, and even McDonald’s has acknowledged pressure among lower-income diners.

These headlines have fueled a familiar narrative that the economy is weakening and that consumers are pulling back. But the data tells a different story. Rather than retreating, consumers are becoming more rational, reassessing where they spend and gravitating toward the strongest relative value.

After years of post-pandemic pricing distortion, the gap between restaurant inflation and grocery costs has widened dramatically, and a new wave of discounting across quick-service restaurants (QSRs) – is reshaping traffic patterns across the industry. In this environment, value perception now drives performance. Restaurants that protected affordability are gaining share, while those that overshot consumer expectations are now giving it back.

Read more

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • Netflix amended its $83B bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming business to an all-cash offer; with WBD's cable assets to be spun off

  • Elon Musk joked about acquiring $36B-listed Irish ultra-budget airline Ryanair and installing a CEO named 'Ryan'

  • $11B-listed European molecular testing firm Qiagen is weighing a sale amid takeover interest

  • German exchange operator Deutsche Boerse is nearing an acquisition of European fund distribution platform Allfunds in a $6.2B cash-and-stock deal at an 11% premium

  • Blackstone is weighing a $5B sale of Gulf of America driller Beacon Offshore Energy

  • Advent is preparing a $3.5B sale of Italian industrial confectioner Irca

  • UK pharma giant GSK agreed to acquire immunology biotech RAPT Therapeutics for $2.2B cash at a 65% premium

  • Bain Capital made a binding offer for Japanese personal-care group FineToday; the firm was last valued at $1.1B in November in a failed IPO

  • PE firm TowerBrook agreed to acquire a majority stake in insurance claims manager MSA Mizar for $470M, including debt

  • US miner Energy Fuels agreed to buy Australian Strategic Materials in a $300M all-stock deal 

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free plans to acquire LVMH's DFS travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau

  • Hedge fund Elliott invested several hundred million dollars in Cerberus-owned hypersonic-flight company Stratolaunch

  • UK's Independent Media is in advanced talks to take over the digital and commercial operations of loss-making London newspaper The Standard

  • Media giant Liberty Global is in advanced talks to acquire Irish mobile operator Three Ireland from Hong Kong infrastructure conglomerate CK Hutchison

VC

  • Humans&, a human-centric AI startup led by ex-OpenAI, Google, ​and xAI scientists, raised a $480M seed ‌round at a $4.5B valuation from SV Angel, co-founder Georges Harik, Nvidia, Jeff Bezos, GV, and others

  • Drone delivery startup Zipline raised a $600M round at a $7.6B valuation led by Valor Equity Partners

  • AI inference startup Baseten raised a $300M round at a $5B valuation from IVP, CapitalG, and Nvidia

  • DealHub.io, an AI-powered revenue execution and CPQ platform, raised a $100M growth round led by Riverwood Capital

  • Ethernovia, a developer of Ethernet-based packet processors for autonomous and physical-AI systems, raised a $90M Series B led by Maverick Silicon

  • Indian AI vibe-coding startup Emergent raised a $70M Series B at a $300M valuation co-led by SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and Khosla Ventures

  • LatAm payments infrastructure startup Pomelo raised a $55M Series C co-led by Kaszek and Insight Partners

  • Legal AI startup Ivo raised a $55M Series B at a $355M valuation round led by Blackbird

  • Jetson, a home electrification startup, raised a $50M Series A led by Eclipse

  • Indian warehouse-automation startup Unbox Robotics raised a $28M Series B round led by ICICI Venture and Redstart Labs

  • Atlas Invest, an AI-powered CRE private credit platform, raised a $25M round led by BlackRock

  • AI construction estimating startup XBuild raised a $19M Series A led by N47 

  • GeneralMind, a German AI workflow automation startup, secured a $12M pre-seed round led by Lakestar 

  • Legato, an AI-powered embedded app-creation platform, raised a $7M seed round led by S Capital VC

Powered by Fundable

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • European defense giant Czechoslovak Group is set to raise $3.9B at a $29B valuation Amsterdam in what could be the largest defense IPO ever

  • CK Hutchison is weighing a London and Hong Kong listing of its global telecom business at a $20B valuation

  • Honeywell-backed quantum computing firm Quantinuum is seeking to raise $1.5B at a $15B-$20B valuation in an IPO

  • Indian property developer K Raheja is weighing an India IPO that could raise $700M at a $7B valuation

  • Brazilian fintech PicPay is seeking to raise $400M at at $2.5B valuation in a US IPO in a Brazilian firm's first IPO in four years

  • Insurance platform Ethos Technologies is seeking to raise $211M at a $1.3B valuation in an IPO; the startup was last valued at $2.7B in 2021

  • Securities and derivatives broker Clear Street filed for an IPO

  • Walmart and Microsoft-backed Indian payments fintech PhonePe received regulatory approval for an India IPO

  • Fintech Stripe has no imminent plans for an IPO; the startup is valued at $107B

Debt

  • Saudi Arabia sold over $20B in international bonds YTD

  • Spain raised $17.6B in a syndicated bond sale that saw a record $170B in demand  

  • Netflix secured $8.2B in additional bank debt, bringing its bridge financing to $42.2B, for its revised $83B all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery

  • China's Jiangxi Copper plans to sell $3.6B of bonds to fund a mining expansion

  • Philippines sold $2.75B of dollar bonds despite volatility

  • Chinese ByteDance-rival Kuaishou is seeking to raise $2B in its first offshore bond sale to fund AI expansion

  • Australia's Macquarie Capital completed a SRT tied to a $1B portfolio of high-yield corporate loans

  • Industrial equipment maker Columbus McKinnon raised $1.23B in junk debt to fund its acquisition of peer Kito Crosby from KKR

  • PE firm Lone Star Funds is marketing a $500M in junk debt to fund its $3.8B LBO of equipment maker Hillenbrand, as part of a bigger $3.1B debt package

  • Blue Owl BDC Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. launched a $400M dollar bond sale at a 225 bps premium

  • Pakistan plans to return to the global bond market after a four-year gap

  • AI lending fintech Pagaya Technologies raised a $350M revolving ABS backed by personal loans

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Hedge fund GoldenTree will buy $200M of the $1B DIP financing package for bankrupt luxury retailer ‌Saks

Funds / Secondaries

  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management and SWF QIA expanded their strategic partnership, with QIA potentially committing up to $25B

  • KKR is set to raise $22B for its targeted $20B fourteenth flagship Americas PE fund 26North Partners, the investment firm led by Apollo co-founder Josh Harris, raised over $4B for its debut PE fund

  • Consumer-focused PE firm Bansk raised a $1.4B CV for drug maker Arcadia Consumer Healthcare co-led by Coller Capital and Ares

  • European operator-led VC Plural is seeking to raise $1.15B for its fourth fund

  • European investment firm Arcano Partners raised $1B for its fifth PE secondaries fund

  • Asset management giant Allianz Global Investors raised $690M for a targeted $1B EM credit fund focused on climate initiatives

  • Impact PE firm Vistria raised $675M for its first multi-asset CV 

  • European PE firm EQT is seeking to raise $550M to shift ten investments from its 2016 vintage VC fund into a new continuation vehicle 

  • BlackRock received investor approval to extend the investment period of its $435M second Asia private credit fund

  • European sustainable urbantech-focused VC 2150 raised $245M for its second fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Strategy purchased $2.13B Bitcoin in its largest transaction since July

  • Crypto industry turns against US bill it had pushed to regulate digital assets

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

Get Hired 🤝

Meme Cleanser

🛒 Merch Store: Visit our merch store to shop our latest apparel, shoes, bags, accessories and more.

💵 Litquidity Ventures: Accredited investors & qualified purchasers within the Litquidity community can gain access to alternative investments such as venture, late-stage growth, and private equity through Litquidity Ventures. Interested? Fill out this form.

☎️ Book a call with Lit: Want to pick Litquidity's brain on business advice, insights, or just chat to say what's up? Buy his time here.

📧 Launch your own newsletter: Have great content ideas and looking to launch your own publication? We highly recommend beehiiv to get started.

*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading