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Global markets continued their freefall after Trump rejected prospects for deals. You know its bad when hedge funds are being hit by the biggest margin calls since Covid…

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Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks continued to freefall on Friday as markets absorbed latest tariff news and new Chinese retaliatory measures

  • All three major indexes posted their worst two-day declines since Covid

  • S&P and Nasdaq had their worst weeks since Covid

  • Nasdaq entered a bear market, down 23% from its December ATH

  • Dow entered a correction, down over 15% from its ATH

  • US stocks have lost $10T in market value

  • VIX popped to its highest level since Covid 

• Europe's Stoxx 600 lost 8% in its worst week since Covid, wiping out all YTD gains

• UK's FTSE 100 also wiped out all YTD gains

• Japan's Nikkei 225 fell to its lowest since late-2023

• China's CSI 300 slid to its lowest since September

• Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 13% to wipe out all its 25% YTD gains

• Taiwan's Taiex entered a bear market, down 20% from its July ATH 

• Australia's ASX 200 slumped 6.5% to a one-year low in its worst day since Covid

• US 10Y yield fell below 4% to the lowest since October

• US 2Y yield slid to 3.5% to its lowest since 2022

  • US investment grade spreads rose to 106 bps to the highest since August 2024

  • US junk bond spreads surged to 401 bps to the highest since November 2023

• Asia CDSs widened by 22 bps in the biggest jump since Covid

• Commodity Spot Index dropped 6.8% in its biggest two-day loss since 2011

  • Oil fell below $60 bbl, the lowest since August 2021, as OPEC+ plans to increase production

  • Silver dropped to a two-month low

• Dollar hit a six-month low versus Euro and Swiss Franc after dropping 1.9% in its worst day since 2022

  • Euro had its best day since 2015

  • Aussie dollar hit a five-year low versus dollar

Earnings

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Levi's, Dave & Buster's

  • Wednesday: Delta, Constellation Brands 

  • Thursday: CarMax

  • Friday: JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BlackRock

• Full calendar here 

Prediction Markets

• The kind of graph you wish your stocks looked like…

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• "I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something." -Trump (BBG)

• China retaliated on US tariffs (WSJ) 

• Over 50 countries called White House for tariff talks (AJZ)

• J Pow sees tariffs raising inflation (CNBC)

• US job growth jumped, but unemployment rose to 4.2% (CNBC)

• Hedge fund margin calls are the biggest since Covid (FT)

• LPs look to sell out of PE after market rout (FT)

• Tariffs revive fears of hung LBO debt (BBG)

• Billions worth of M&A and IPO deals stalled in 24 hours (BBG)

• US high-grade bond issuances teeters in ways not seen since Covid (RT)

• Hedge funds and ETFs dumped $40B in stocks amid tariff shock (RT)

• Money market inflows surged (RT) 

• PBOC bought gold for a fifth-straight month (BBG)

• Taiwan tightened short-selling rules to calm market (BBG)

• EU seeks unity in first strike back at US tariffs (RT)

• US extends TikTok ban deadline after China objected due to tariffs (CNBC) 

• BlackRock raised CEO Larry Fink's pay by 14% to $31M (BBG)

• Proxy firm ISS recommended voting against BofA CEO pay (RT)

• Elon Musk vs OpenAI will go to jury trial next year (RT)

• BP's chairman will quit amid pressure from activist Elliott (BBG)

• France is investigating reinsurer Scor for obstructing a rival's merger (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• US infrastructure investor Stonepeak will acquire a 40% stake in Australian energy company Woodside Energy's Louisiana LNG infrastructure project in a deal involving a $5.7B initial investment 

• A group led by Blackstone and comprising Canada's CPPIB, CDPQ, PSP, and BCI agreed to acquire a stake in Rogers Communications' wireless network for $4.9B equity deal

• French manufacturer Saint-Gobain paused a $2.8B sale of its auto glass unit

• PE firm New Mountain Capital is close to acquiring a large stake in software firm Office Ally from PE firm Francisco Partners at a $1.8B valuation

• CDPQ-owned Verene Energia agreed to acquire Brazilian energy company Equatorial Energia's power transmission subsidiary at a $1.6B valuation

• PGA Tour declined a $1.5B investment from Saudi's PIF

• Italian lender Banco BPM secured an 89.9% stake in asset manager Anima Holding as part of its buyout offer

• French lender Credit Agricole's wealth management unit Indosuez agreed to acquire Swiss private bank Banque Thaler, pushing total AUM to $243B

• UBS Asset Management is seeking to sell its direct infrastructure equity and debt investment business

• German mass media company ProSiebenSat.1 lined up defense advisors after receiving a takeover bid from its largest investor MFE-MediaForEurope

VC

• HR SaaS startup Rippling is in talks to raise hundreds of millions of dollars at a $16B valuation

• SandboxAQ, a startup building enterprise quantitative AI, raised a $450M Series E from Ray Dalio, Horizon Kinetics, BNP Paribas, Google, and Nvidia

• Atsena Therapeutics, a clinical-stage gene therapy company, raised a $150M Series C led by Bain Capital

• Turbine, a liquidity and debt platform for PE and VC LPs, raised $22M in funding led by Alpha Edison and TTV Capital

• Accounting software startup Pennylane raised an $82M round at a $2.2B valuation a from Sequoia, CapitalG, Meritech, and DST GLobal

• Data lake platform Hydrolix raised an $80M Series C led by QED Investors

• Next-gen insurance agency Equal Parts raised $10M led by Equal Ventures and Max Ventures

• Hilbi, a Slovakian provider of a patients payments platform, raised $8.8M from Ishtar Advisory

• Deacon Health, a specialty care management provider, raised a $7M seed round led by Herb Fritch, Larry Cash, and David Vandewater

• Prowler, an open cloud security platform, raised a $6.5M seed extension led by Decibel VC

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Tata Capital, the financial services unit of Indian conglomerate Tata, pre-filed for a $2B IPO in what could India's biggest IPO of 2025

• Swedish BNPL fintech Klarna paused IPO plans amid market volatility

• Tickets marketplace StubHub delayed its IPO amid market volatility

Debt

• Banks led by Goldman Sachs lined up a $2.77B debt package to back Italian fashion group Prada's $1.5B acquisition of Versace from Capri Holdings

• HSBC and the Lloyds Banking-Oaktree private credit JV provided $780M debt package to back 65 Equity Partners and Inflexion's $1.7B LBO of UK-based safety systems firm Kee Safety from investment firm ICG

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Pharmacy chain Rite Aid is weighing a second Chapter 11 filing in one year or an asset of whole-business sale

Fundraising

• PE firm Trive Capital raised $2.7B for an oversubscribed fifth fund

• PE FOF HarbourVest Partners launched a multi-manager directs PE fund with a $550M seeding

• Japanese PE firm D Capital raised $445M for its second fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Bitcoin is emerging as a US isolation hedge

• Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• Ben Carlson shared some data that might explain how bad this can actually get.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.