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Good Morning,
The Iran conflict is causing the largest oil supply disruption ever, Russia is raking $150M/day in extra revenue from surging oil prices, US launched unfair-trade probes to rebuild tariff pressure, and US stocks and global bonds fell to new YTD lows as the Iran conflict escalated.
Cognitive Credit published an insightful paper on how GenAI can be applied to credit research and why it's essential for firms to adapt. Read it here.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 3/12/2026 market close.
Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stock indexes continued to fall on spiking oil prices as Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed
All three major indexes hit new YTD lows
S&P notched its biggest three-day decline in a month
Private credit BDC assets are trading at 78¢, down from 85¢ since January
Global bonds erased all YTD gains
German 10Y yield climbed to 2.96% to the highest since 2023
Foreigners sold the most Japan stocks since November
Brent crude surged back above $100/bbl
Dollar rose to a two-month high
Traders are most bullish on dollar since 2022
Traders are buying EM FX hedges at the fastest pace since Covid
Earnings
Adobe beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but issued a lackluster forecast amid AI disruption fears; CEO Narayen plans to step down (CNBC)
Dollar General beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but issued weak guidance as winter storms and consumer uncertainty weigh (WSJ)
DICK'S beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but issued weak guidance as the Foot Locker merger continues to weigh on margins (CNBC)
Ulta Beauty beat Q4 revenue estimates but missed on earnings and issued soft guidance despite robust cosmetics demand amid boarder consumer uncertainty (BBG)
Full calendar here
Prediction Markets
Schrödinger's Ayatollah
Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market
Headline Roundup
World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Iran war (RT)
Israel says no guarantee of Iran regime change after war (BBG)
LA port looks largely insulated from Iran war disruptions (RT)
US launched unfair-trade probes to rebuild tariff pressure (RT)
Fed will loosen capital requirements for big US banks (BBG)
Exodus of money endangers Wall Street's private credit craze (WSJ)
Private credit's 'back leverage' is another pain point for funds (BBG)
Global O&G upstream M&A was muted in 2025 (RT)
Tech giants continue to tap debt markets to fund AI and cloud expansion (RT)
Chinese firms race to hedge against swinging yuan (RT)
Canada exchange pushes to end quarterly reporting for all firms (RT)
CFTC kicked off rule-making for prediction markets (RT)
Deutsche Bank raised bonus pool by just 6.6% after mixed results (BBG)
UBS settled a 13-year-old whistleblower lawsuit (RT)
Ex-employees sued Deutsche Bank for $800M over BMPS case (RT)
McKinsey rushes to fix AI system after hacker exposes flaws (FT)
Italy is seeking trial for Amazon and four execs over $1.4B tax evasion (RT)
Hong Kong arrested eight in hedge fund insider probe (BBG)
Russia is raking $150M extra revenue per day from surging oil prices (FT)
A Message from Cognitive Credit
As specialist AI systems move beyond simple tasks to making meaningful contributions to end-to-end fundamental analysis, 2026 will see many credit investors formally integrate GenAI into their research processes.
This represents a shift in the analyst role—from information gatherer to supervisor of automated systems that can synthesize data at scale. Firms that fail to adapt risk falling behind on coverage breadth and research velocity.
In this complimentary white paper, find out how GenAI can be applied to credit research today and how the operating model is likely to evolve over the next several years.
Content includes:
The essential components of modern credit investing
Practical applications of GenAI in credit research
The evolution of credit teams in a GenAI era
The irreplaceable role of human judgement
Need to integrate AI into your credit research? Check out Cognitive Credit AI. Built exclusively on proprietary financials and document databases, Cognitive Credit delivers specialist AI with deep knowledge of credit markets and free from human bias and third-party opinion. Simply enter your query and distill years of historical figures & management commentary into actionable intelligence in seconds.
Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
Volkswagen is requiring Porsche to take 10% of its diesel engine unit Everllence as Blackstone, EQT, CVC, Advent, Brookfield, Bain Capital, and GIC advance to the second round of bidding for a 51% stake at a potential $9.25B valuation
Oracle's 15% stake in the TikTok US JV is worth ~$2B
UK real estate broker Savills agreed to acquire real estate advisory Eastdil Secured at a $1.1B valuation, including debt
Global building materials giant Holcim agreeing to buy a cement plant, a grinding mill, and a portfolio of other plants in Colombia from Mexican cement maker Cemex for $485M as Cemex offloads $555M in assets
MM PE firm Charlesbank Capital Partners agreed to buy a stake in Canadian secondaries firm Overbay Capital Partners at a $147M valuation
PE-owned UK hospitality group Azzurri is exploring a sale of the European franchise of hot chicken chain Dave's Hot Chicken
Insurers Allianz and Sun Life are weighing bids for HSBC Singapore's insurance business
VC
Sunday, a humanoid robotics maker, raised $165M in a Series B at a $1.15B valuation led by Coatue
Israeli AI customer support startup Wonderful raised a $150M Series B at a $2B valuation led by Insight Partners
ORO Labs, an AI procurement orchestration startup, raised a $100M Series C led by Brighton Park Capital
Gumloop, an AI agent-builder for knowledge workers, raised a $50M Series B led by Benchmark
Vector search engine Qdrant raised a $50M Series B led by AVP
Cryptio, a regulated crypto accounting platform, raised a $45M Series B led by BlackFin Capital Partners
Bold Security, an edge-AI cybersecurity startup, raised a $40M round led by Bessemer Venture Partners
BackOps, an AI supply-chain OS startup, raised a $26M Series A led by Theory Ventures
Femtum, a laser solutions startup for advanced chip manufacturing, raised a $16M Series A led by BDC
Qurrent, a provider of autonomous digital workforces, raised a $15M Series A led by Cervin Ventures
Mantis Space, an orbital power infrastructure startup, raised a $10M+ seed round led by Rule 1 Ventures
Ezra, an AI infrastructure startup for private credit, raised an $8M seed round led by Congruent Ventures
Access the complete VC deal flow on Fundable
IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Singaporean logistics firm GLP is seeking a $20B valuation in a planned Hong Kong IPO
National Stock Exchange of India selected 20 bankers for its long-awaited India IPO that could raise $2.5B
SoftBank-backed Japanese payments fintech PayPay jumped 14% in its trading debut after raising $880M in the biggest US IPO by a Japanese firm in a decade
Singaporean industrial and logistics REIT UI Boustead REIT fell 10% after raising $765M in Singapore's biggest IPO this year
Debt
Airbnb raised $2.5B in a debut investment grade bond sale as a convertible comes due
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
Senegal made $470M in foreign bond payments to avoid a potential default
Media firm BuzzFeed is exploring strategic options to stave off insolvency amid 'substantial doubt' to stay in business due to legacy cost burdens
Funds / Secondaries
Blue Owl defended its recent $1.4B loan sale from three funds saying there were no backstops or hidden incentives
VC General Atlantic and UK PE secondaries firm Clipway plan to raise $1B for a secondaries fund JV focused on growth and late-stage VC
New Abu Dhabi PE firm Nahda Capital Partners plans to raise a $300M debut fund to invest in the region
Water-tech VC Emerald raised $115M for its second fund
Morgan Stanley and private credit lender Cliffwater became latest to restrict withdrawals from private credit funds
Crypto Sum Snapshot
JPMorgan was sued for enabling a $328M crypto ponzi scheme
Tether CIO Richard Heathcote will step down after leading deals spree
Legal battle intensifies over UK seizure of $4B Bitcoin of Chinese fraudster
Read Crypto Sum here
Exec’s Picks
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Bulls & Brackets Viewing Party🏀💥
March Madness is almost here, and we're ready.
Litquidity and DFIN are hosting a happy hour to kick off the NCAA tournament and the 2026 Bulls & Bracket Challenge. Come celebrate Thursday, March 19 @ St. Pat's Bar & Grill in NYC and enjoy some drinks, snacks and merch, and network with the Litquidity community while cheering on your favorite team.
(Also, register for the bracket challenge in the RSVP link if you haven't already 👀)
Meme Cleanser
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.