Focused on the Long End

Author

Litquidity Capital
February 06, 2025

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Good Morning,

Apollo and Ares are on a roll, a16z hired Daniel Penny after he beat his NYC subway case, retail investors are breaking all single stock buying records, Google scrapped DEI hiring, and Scott Bessent is focused on lowering 10Y yields instead of Fed rates.

IR folks, it's time to stop wasting hours on briefs, letters, and DDQ responses for your routine LP meetings. Let BlueFlame handle the heavy lifting while you focus on relationships. Elevate your IR capabilities with BlueFlame today.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/5/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stock indexes rose yesterday as investors looked past trade turmoil 

  • US 10Y and 2Y yields fell to their lowest since mid-December 

    • 2Y yield fell 3 bps to 4.19% 

    • Yield curve has continued to flatten since early-January 

  • Gold touched a new record high

  • Dollar fell 0.2% to a one-week low

Earnings

  • Qualcomm beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and issued better-than-expected Q2 guidance on the back of strong smartphone demand (CNBC) 

  • Disney beat Q1 earnings estimates on a strong box office performance from 'Moana 2,' though it warned of modest Q2 decline in Disney+ subscribers (RT) 

  • Uber fell 8% after missing on Q4 earnings and forecasting lower-than-expected Q1 bookings as a strong dollar offset stable ride-hailing demand (RT) 

  • Arm beat Q3 estimates and gave in-line FY guidance on expected slowing growth in smartphone demand (IP)

  • Ford beat Q4 earnings estimates but forecast a tougher year ahead due to headwinds related to tariffs and macro factors (CNBC) 

  • Strategy, fka MicroStrategy, reported a Q4 loss due to an impairment charge tied to its Bitcoin stockpile (RT) 

  • What we're watching this week:

    • Today: Amazon, Eli Lilly 

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Scott Bessent is focused on lowering 10Y yields, not Fed rates (BBG)

  • Retail investors are breaking all single-stock records in buying spree (CNBC)

  • US gold rush drives up London borrowing costs in unusual divergence (BBG)

  • Global investors sold India stocks for a record 22-straight days (BBG)

  • UK stocks suffered their sixth-biggest monthly outflow ever (RT)

  • Fed released 2025 bank stress test scenarios (RT)

  • US trade deficit hit a record in 2024 (NYT)

  • Senate is investigating whether banks deny services on political grounds (RT)

  • Apollo plans to build the first marketplace for private credit (BBG)

  • Apollo eyes 'Industrial Renaissance' after record 2024 investments (WSJ)

  • Ares fundraising hit a record $93B last year (BBG) 

  • Ares named two co-presidents as it aims to double in size (FT)

  • a16z hired Daniel Penny after subway chokehold acquittal (BBG)

  • Saudi Arabia hiked price of crude to Asia by the most in over two years (BBG)

  • Pension portfolio rebalancing potentially costs $16B / year (BBG)

  • Australia's Macquarie shut its US DCM arm to focus on private credit (BBG)

  • UnitedHealth complained to SEC about now deleted Bill Ackman tweet (FT)

  • Activist Starboard nominated four directors to Kenvue's board (RT)

  • ByteDance is slow-rolling Tiktok's US sale (WP) 

  • Google says commercial quantum computing will arrive in five years (RT)

  • Google scrapped DEI hiring (WSJ)

  • GlobalFoundries named COO Tim Breen as new CEO (RT)

  • BlackRock plans to hire 1.2k in India ramp-up (BBG)

  • Workday will cut 8.5% of its workforce (BBG)

  • India is now OpenAI's second-largest market (RT)

  • Amazon will finally update Alexa with GenAI (RT)

  • Jeff Bezos's $10B Earth Fund cuts ties with climate group (FT)

  • Hongkongers in UK are watching their skills go to waste (FT)

A Message from BlueFlame

Transform Your Investor Relations Work with BlueFlame AI 

Say goodbye to hours spent preparing LP meeting briefs, drafting quarterly letters, and managing DDQs. Our AI-powered solution integrates with your existing systems to automate time-consuming tasks while maintaining the personal touch that makes your investor relationships special. 

Imagine walking into every LP meeting fully prepared with comprehensive briefing materials automatically compiled from your emails, CRM, and market data. Let BlueFlame handle the heavy lifting of quarterly investor letters, DDQ responses, and CRM updates, while your team focuses on what matters most - building and nurturing investor relationships. 

Ready to elevate your IR team's capabilities? Contact us today for a personalized demo. 

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Nissan's board rejected a proposed $58B merger with Honda

  • SoftBank is in advanced talks to acquire chip design startup Ampere Computing at $6.5B valuation, including debt

  • JAB Holding, the investment group behind Krispy Kreme, agreed to acquire life insurer Prosperity Life from hedge fund Elliott for over $3B

  • KKR-backed healthcare data company Cotiviti is nearing a deal to acquire smaller rival Edifecs for $3B

  • Brookfield offered to acquire Australian wealth manager Insignia Financial for $1.9B, joining the bidding war between CC Capital Partners and Bain Capital

  • Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com renewed its interest in acquiring $1.8B-listed German electronics retailer Ceconomy

  • Insurance firms Allianz and Insurance Australia Group are considering bidding for The Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia's insurance arm

  • LME floor trader Sigma is in talks to sell its brokerage

VC

  • OpenAI is in talks to raise capital from Abu Dhabi investment group MGX as part of a historic $40B fundraise led by SoftBank

  • Your.World, a European online solutions provider, raised $832M in long-term partnership capital from Ares and Carlyle

  • Function Health, a startup offering regular lab testing for people to track their health over time, is seeking to raise a $200M round at a $2B valuation

  • ElevenLabs, an AI audio company, raised a $180M Series C at a $3.3B valuation led by a16z and ICONIQ Growth

  • Application security platform Semgrep raised a $100M Series B led by Menlo Ventures

  • Enterprise software company Nextworld raised a $65M Series F from the McVaney Investment Partnership

  • Fay, a startup revolutionizing the way we think about food, raised a $50M Series B at a $500M valuation led by Goldman Sachs

  • Verde Clean Fuels, a company developing natural gas-to-gasoline technology, raised $50M in funding from Cottonmouth Ventures

  • Bitcoin Ordinals project Taproot Wizards raised a $30M round led by Standard Crypto

  • IONATE, a deeptech hardware and software solutions for smart electricity grids, raised a $17M Series A led by AlbionVC

  • GenLogs, a freight intelligence platform, raised a $14.6M Series A led by Venrock and HOF Capital

  • Beamable, a developer of decentralized infrastructure for gaming, raised a $13.5M Series A led by BITKRAFT Ventures

  • Digital mental health startup Little Otter raised $9.5M in funding led by Pivotal Ventures, Torch Capital, and more

  • Prior Labs, a German startup developing AI models for spreadsheets and databases, raised a $9M pre-seed round led by Balderton Capital

  • Lorikeet, an AI customer experience company, raised a $9M round led by Blackbird

  • Largo.ai, an AI-driven solutions for film/TV/advertising industries, raised a $7.5M round led by TI Capital and QBIT Capital

  • Miist, a startup creating a vape that helps people stop smoking, raised a $7M seed round from Refactor Capital, 1517 Fund, and Freeflow Ventures

  • Modern Synthesis, a startup making compostable synthetic materials, raised a $5.5M round led by Extantia Capital

  • B2B tech startup for spare parts management PartsCloud raised a $5.2M seed round led by Newion, MBG, and SquareOne

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Space and defense firm Karman is seeking to raise $421M at a $2.6B valuation in a US IPO

  • Next Generation Technology Group, Japan's first IPO of 2025, surged 60% in its trading debut for a $180M market cap

  • Ategrity Specialty Insurance, a provider of excess and surplus insurance to SMEs, is preparing for a US IPO

Debt

  • Australia attracted a record $52B worth of bids for a 2036 bond sale amid record global bond demand

  • Banks led by Morgan Stanley sold $5.5B of $13B of debt tied to Elon Musk's $44B LBO of Twitter

  • Poland launched a $5.5B dollar-denominated bond sale

  • Turkey sold $2.5B of 7Y dollar bonds at a 7.2% YTM 

  • Neuberger Berman agreed to buy $1B of loans from consumer lender ClarityPay

  • Getty Images is selling $1B of high-yield debt in a refinancing effort amid a merger with Shutterstock

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Fashion retailer Forever 21, owned by Catalyst Brands, is considering a second bankruptcy filing if asset-sale plans fail

  • UK homebuilder Crest Nicholson issued a going concern

  • Investors of Indonesian agritech company eFishery are weighing either liquidating or restructuring the company

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • BlackRock plans to launch a Bitcoin ETP in Europe

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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