Anti-Activist KKR

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Good Morning,

The Fed paused rate cuts, OpenAI accused DeepSeek of IP theft, activists outed CEOs in record number last year, and KKR is establishing itself as a white knight for companies under activist pressure.

Take your career to the next step in 2025! Level up your PE skills in Wharton Online–Wall Street Prep's globally acclaimed Private Equity Certificate Program. Save $300 with our Litquidity discount!

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 1/29/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks fell as investors digested the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged 

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a new ATH

Earnings

  • Tesla missed Q4 earnings and revenue estimates as automotive revenue fell 8% YoY (CNBC

  • Meta beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates as AI improvements to its ads business drove record revenue (WSJ)

  • Microsoft beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but reported lower-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud unit; its AI business grew to $13B in annualized revenue (CNBC

  • ASML beat Q4 earnings estimates thanks to a strong jump in net bookings, suggesting strong demand for its AI chip making tools (CNBC)  

  • IBM surged 9% after beating Q4 earnings estimates thanks to growth in its software segment (CNBC

  • T-Mobile jumped 6% after beating Q4 earnings and subscriber growth estimates and forecasting strong subscriber additions for 2025 (BBG) 

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Apple, Intel, Visa, UPS, Mastercard, Blackstone, Southwest

    • Friday: Brookfield, ExxonMobil, Chevron

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Super Bowl ads hit a record $8M for this year but we're yet to see who's about to feature.

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Headline Roundup

  • Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.5%, sees no hurry to cut again (CNBC)

  • BoC cut rates by 25 bps to 3% (RT)

  • Bond traders kept in limbo after Fed offers few clues (BBG)

  • Fed entering tough period for measuring money market liquidity (RT)

  • Stock hedge funds posted big one-day drop in DeepSeek rout (RT)

  • Credit skeptics are short $10B on high-yield corporate bond ETFs (BBG)

  • Tokyo stock exchange looks to protect small investors as LBOs surge (FT)

  • Global CEO departures hit record high in 2024 amid investor pressure (RT)

  • India's IPO boom is defying stock market's slump (BBG)

  • KPMG UK partners made record pay last year (FT)

  • Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London shortage (FT)

  • Norway's SWF posts record $222B profit but warns tech boom won't last (RT)

  • Global firms' office leasing in India hit a record high (BBG)

  • Europe office dealmaking hit a record low (BBG)

  • Barclays tightened WFH rules (FT)

  • Alberta targets $173B fund to wean itself off oil revenue (BBG)

  • Surge in European power trading is set to continue (BBG)

  • Coffee's 94% rally finally hits the last holdouts for demand (BBG)

  • OpenAI has evidence that its models helped train China's DeepSeek (TV)

  • Meta will pay $25M to settle Trump ban lawsuit (WSJ)

  • Theft leaves UK retailers with a record $2.7B in losses (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • A group of American investors including YouTuber MrBeast, Roblox founder David Baszucki, and Anchorage Digital founder Nathan McCauley secured over $20B to bid for TikTok

  • Telecoms infrastructure firm Zayo Group is in talks to acquire Crown Castle's fiber business for over $8B

  • Shareholders of Australia's Sigma Healthcare approved a merger with Chemist Warehouse to create a $5.5B pharmacy and retailing giant

  • Japanese technology group NEC is considering a bid for $1.7B-listed telecom customer care and billing solutions provider CSG Systems

  • American Axle & Manufacturing agreed to acquire UK car parts group Dowlais for $1.4B in cash and stock

  • Warner Bros. Discovery received at least three bids, including from broadcaster MFE-MediaForEurope and Polish businessman Michal Solowow, for $1B Polish broadcaster TVN

  • Goldman Sachs' alternative investments unit agreed to acquire a $300M portfolio of warehouses from Blackstone

  • Spanish telecoms giant Telefonica is exploring a sale of its Argentina business

VC

  • OpenAI is in talks raise up to $25B from SoftBank

  • Turkish mobile game developer Dream Games is seeking to raise $2.5B in private credit and equity to buyout existing investors and double its valuation

  • Castelion, a defense manufacturer producing long range hypersonic strike weapons, raised a $100M Series A led by Lightspeed Venture Partners

  • Grid-enhancing tech and services provider Smart Wires raised $65M in funding led by BP Energy Partners

  • Freedx, a newly-launched crypto exchange, raised a $50M round

  • Application detection and response platform Oligo Security raised a $50M Series B led by Greenfield Partners

  • Finout, a cloud cost management service, raised a $40M Series C led by Insight Partners

  • D3, a DomainFi infrastructure company, raised a $25M Series A led by Paradigm

  • Conifers.ai, a native cybersecurity AI platform helping organizations solve security operations center challenges, raised $25M in funding from SYN Ventures, Picus Capital, and others

  • Weather forecasting startup Meteomatics raised a $22M Series C led by Armira Growth

  • Formance, a French startup building an open-source, programmable financial ledger, raised a $21M Series A co-led by PayPal Ventures and Portage

  • Concierge-style corporate event booking platform Naboo raised a $21M Series A led by Notion Capital

  • iPronics, a Spanish optical networking engine for AI data centers, raised a $20.8M Series A led by Triatomic Capital

  • OneVest, a wealth management tech platform, raised a $20M Series B led by Salesforce Ventures

  • Delfina Care, a healthcare technology company, raised a $17M Series A led by USVP

  • Crypto accounting platform Cryptio raised a $15M Series A extension led by Alven

  • DarwinCX, a SaaS provider enhancing the customer experience for publishers and subscription-based businesses, raised $12M in additional funding from First Ascent Ventures, New Era Capital Partners, and others

  • Climate data startup OCELL raised a $10.4M Series A led by Capnamic

  • Canvas, a 3D measurement and modeling solutions for real estate, raised a $10M Series A led by Trilogy Equity Partners and Foundry Group

  • Mexican virtual power plant startup Niko raised an $8M equity round led by QED Investors

  • Tradeverifyd, an intelligence platform for supply chain risk management, raised an $8M Series A led by Silicon Road VC and Bread & Butter Ventures

  • Waterlily, a startup using AI to guide families through long-term care, raised a $7M seed round led by Brewer Lane Ventures

  • Rynse, a fleet management software provider, raised a $5M seed round led by Autotech Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • KKR took a 12% strategic stake in $10B-listed medical products distributor Henry Schein

  • India's Adani Power plans to raise $580M in a share sale

  • Activist Third Point took a 10% stake in SoHo House to fight against a buyout proposal

  • Activist HG Vora launched a proxy fight at Penn Entertainment after cutting its stake below 5% 

  • Hedge fund D.E. Shaw built a stake in Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms and may pursue an activist role

Debt

  • Citigroup is marketing $390M in rare exchangeable bonds linked to Airbus shares

  • Film producer 3 Arts Entertainment is seeking to raise $250M in debt or equity

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Ghana is in talks to restructure $2.7B of commercial loans

  • Bankrupt Spirit Airlines rejected a $2.2B takeover offer from peer Frontier, calling the offer 'inadequate and unactionable'

  • Bankrupt Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt agreed to sell its stake in its Volvo battery JV Novo Energy to Volvo

Fundraising

  • Blackstone raised $8.5B for its first PE fund targeting individuals

  • Palantir founder Joe Lonsdale's 8VC is seeking $1B for its sixth fund

  • Jun Bei Liu will launch her new Australia L/S hedge fund Ten Cap with $940M

  • Biotech accelerator Curie.Bio raised $340M for a new seed fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Czech National Bank governor is weighing a Bitcoin reserve

  • Trump Media surged after expanding into crypto and ETFs

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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