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Good Morning,

US curbed a law banning US firms from bribing foreigners, CFPB froze all work, Trump and DOGE are eyeing the Treasury system, Chinese investors are plowing into Hong Kong, Musk made a $100B bid to take control of OpenAI, and commodities markets felt some shocks after US slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Planful's latest eBook dives deep into the best strategies to stay agile and drive better outcomes with continuous planning. If you work in a finance team, it's definitely worth the read.

Our intern Karl blundered with an unscheduled Exec Sum email send last evening. We have since placed him on a PIP. Our apologies for any confusion and thank you for trusting us as your go-to source for financial news 🫡

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks rose to recover some losses yesterday as investors shrug off tariff worries

• Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a new ATH on the back of strong earnings

  • The index posted an eighth-straight win week in its longest streak since March 2024

• UK's FTSE 100 hit a new ATH

• EM sovereign dollar bond–US Treasury risk premium fell to 314 bps to the lowest since pre-Covid 

• US metals futures premiums soared on US steel and aluminum tariffs

  • Copper rose 2% to top $10k/ton

  • NY Comex copper futures premium widened to the highest since Covid

• Oil jumped on trade war concerns

• European gas prices hit a two-year high amid cold weather 

• The Litquidity Pilot Portfolios are live on Autopilot! Click here to learn more and subscribe to the Litquidity strategies.*

Earnings

• McDonald's missed Q4 revenue estimates in its worst US sales drop since Covid due to the E. coli outbreak, though it beat on earnings and expects sales to improve in 2025 (CNBC)  

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Supermicro, Shopify, Coca-Cola, DoorDash, Carlyle

  • Wednesday: Reddit, Cisco, CVS, Robinhood

  • Thursday: Coinbase, Airbnb, DraftKings

  • Friday: Moderna

• Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

• US announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (WSJ)

• Trump said US may have less debt than thought because of fraud (BBG)

• Bond traders waver as Trump questions US government debt figures (RT)

• Credit quants target bulk trades to conquer $8T market (BBG)

• Risk-hungry retail traders boost leveraged ETFs AUM to $95B (BBG)

• Commodity rally buoys LatAm as tariff fears dent EM (BBG)

• Chinese investors plowed $19B into Hong Kong stocks YTD (BBG)

• India IPO market gets reality check as $4B lockups expire (BBG)

• Retail UK gilt buying hit a four-year high (BBG)

• China frees possible $27B from insurers to buy gold (BBG)

• US eased enforcement of law banning US firms from bribing foreigners (WSJ)

• Middle East nations turn to metal trading to tap into growing demand (FT)

• Japan ran record current account surplus on foreign investment returns (RT)

• US dismantling of CFPB will will have broad implications for consumers (RT)

• EU promised to cut red tape on tech investments and business (RT)

• Gulf refiners are balking at watery Mexican oil in blow to PEMEX (BBG)

• OpenAI is set to finalize its first custom chip design this year (RT)

• Meta began layoffs of up to 4k roles (FRB)

• Shein is diversifying to Vietnam to skirt tariffs (BBG)

• UBS whistleblower verdict was thrown out despite SCOTUS win (RT)

• BCG expands London office in bet on in-person working (FT)

• US Treasury will stop minting pennies (CNBC)

A Message from Planful

Continuous Planning: The Secret to Smarter Financial Decisions

Looking for a game-changing strategy for 2025? Our latest eBook reveals how finance teams stay agile and drive better outcomes with continuous planning. Discover the insights you need to streamline your processes and stay ahead of surprises.

💡 What you'll learn:

•  Why agility is the cornerstone of financial success

•  How to build a culture of continuous planning

•  Collaboration strategies for cross-functional alignment

•  Forecasting tips to navigate uncertainty

Ready to transform your planning game? Download the eBook now.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• A consortium led by Elon Musk offered to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI for $97.4B

• Japan's Nippon Steel is considering a 'bold' revision to their $14.9B US Steel buyout

• Bain Capital may withdraw is ~$4B tender offer proposal for Japanese IT firm Fuji Soft to pave way for a KKR buyout

• German pharma giant Merck is in advanced talks to acquire $4B-listed cancer and rare diseases drugmaker SpringWorks Therapeutics

• Major shareholders of UK TV network ITV support management efforts to explore a JV or sale after receiving interest from Blackstone, CVC, and RedBird IMI-backed All3Media; ITV has a $4B EV

• Intelligent motions solutions manufacturer Columbus McKinnon will acquire machinery maker Kito Crosby from KKR in a $2.7B cash deal

• Hyatt Hotels agreed to acquire all-inclusive resort operator Playa Hotels & Resorts for $2.6B cash

• Deutsche Glasfaser, a fiber-optic provider backed by EQT, is seeking to raise $1B at a $10B valuation from new investors to help fund its fiber rollout

• Mizuho Financial Group is nearing a deal to buy a KKR's 63% stake in the Indian investment bank Avendus Capital at an $800M valuation

• NXP Semiconductors agreed to acquire neural processing unit maker Kinara in a $307M all-cash deal

• Financial data provider FactSet acquired trade management platform LiquidityBook in a $247M cash deal

• Fox agreed to acquire digital media company Red Seat Ventures to expand into podcasts

VC

• AI chip startup Groq secured a $1.5B commitment from Saudi Arabia

• Fintech Plaid is planning to sell $300M-$400M in secondary shares at a sub-$13B valuation 

• Validus, a software and services platform for financial risk management, raised a $45M growth equity round from FTV Capital

• Boostly, an automated SMS marketing and feedback solutions for restaurants, raised a $22M Series A led by PeakSpan Capital

• Greyson Clothiers, a performance apparel brand, raised a $20M Series A led by NewBound Ventures and Chris Koch

• neurocare, a German mental health platform, raised $20.8M from Impact Expansion and TVM Capital Healthcare

• B2B customer support platform Plain raised a $15M Series A led by Battery Ventures

• Lawpath, an Australian online legal and business services platform for startups and SMEs, raised $10M in funding from Westpac

• Volunteer and workforce management platform Rosterfy raised an $8.5M growth round led by OIF Ventures

• Fifteenth, a tax solution for tech professionals, raised a $8.25M seed round led by A* and General Catalyst

• Passbolt, a new type of credential and access manager for organizations, raised an $8M Series A led by Airbridge Equity Partners

• Crowded, a fintech platform specializing in financial management for nonprofits, raised a $7.5M Series A led by Flashpoint

• ACT-ion, a battery technology startup, raised a $7.5M pre-Series A led by BASF Venture Capital

• Dev AI, a startup building agentic AI solutions, raised a $6M seed round led by Emergence Capital

• Recruitment tech startup Talentium raised a $3.6M pre-seed round led by EQT Ventures

• Bulgarian warehouse automation startup UVIONIX raised a $3.5M seed round led by LAUNCHub Ventures

• FLiiP, a fitness business management software provider, raised a $3.2M seed round led by Cultivation Capital

• Questal, a financial wellness service provider, raised a $3.2M seed round from numerous Wall Street execs

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Canada's TD Bank Group will offload its remaining 10.1% stake in financial services firm Charles Schwab, which is worth $15.4B

• Carlyle confidentially filed for a US IPO of chemicals producer Nouryon at a $13B valuation

• Chinese bubble tea firm Guming raised $232M in a Hong Kong IPO

• Saudi BNPL fintech Tabby is preparing for a local IPO after hitting a $1.5B valuation in late-2023

• Kestra Medical Technologies, a medtech backed by Bain Capital and healthcare VC Endeavour Vision, filed for an IPO

Debt

• SoftBank is exploring debt-heavy financing for the $500B Stargate AI push

• Eli Lilly sold $6.5B of bonds to finance its $2.5B purchase of a cancer drug from Scorpion Therapeutics

• Morgan Stanley is seeking to sell an additional $3B of debt tied to Elon Musk's LBO of Twitter at 98¢ for a 9.5% YTM

• German car subscription platform FINN secured $1.1B in ABS financing from Citi, Jefferies, and others

• Snap plans to sell $700M of junk bonds to repurchase convertible debt

• Mongolia is planning its first dollar bond sale since being upgraded to B2

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Spirit AeroSystems will declare a going concern mmid Boeing's $4.7B all-stock takeover

• Sweden pensions AP Funds wrote off its entire $531M stake in bankrupt EV battery maker Northvolt 

• Troubled Chinese developer China Vanke raised a $383M loan from state-owned Shenzhen Metro Group

Fundraising

• UK upper MM PE firm BC Partners plans to raise up to $6.2B for its seventh flagship fund

• Philippines' SWF Maharlika Investment Corp and Thailand's CP Group agreed to form a $1B PE fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Bitcoin hoarder Metaplanet soared 4,800% in Japan on crypto rally

• Man pleads guilty in hack of SEC Twitter account that claimed approval of bitcoin ETFs

• Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• Top investors are buying this unlisted stock. When the team that grew Zillow to a $16B valuation starts a new company, people notice. No wonder SoftBank backed Pacaso. They're rewriting a $1.3T market through co-ownership – making $100M+ in gross profits already. Invest for $2.70/share by 2/27.

• Bloomberg published a really insightful take on how hedge funds are pocketing their clients' gains with 'no limit' fees.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there.