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Moody's Feeling a Little Moody

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Good Morning,

Moody's downgraded USA, Small banks are fueling a SPAC revival, Novo Nordisk fired its long-time CEO, ByteDance in on track to match Meta in revenue, and Trump went full Democrat after Walmart announced tariff-induced price hikes.

One-time sales evolved to subscription-based models and subscription-based models are now evolving to usage-based pricing. With this constant evolution, Metronome is transforming the way SaaS firms execute on pricing. A must see if you work in SaaS.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 5/18/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks rose further on Friday as US-China trade optimism offset concerns of deteriorating consumer sentiment

    • S&P gained for a fifth-straight day 

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit a seven-week high

    • The index rose for a fifth-straight week

  • Hong Kong stocks are outperforming mainland China by most since 2008

    • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is up 16% YTD

    • China’s CSI 300 index is down 1% YTD

  • EM stocks soared to their highest since October

    • EM FX rose for a fifth-straight week 

  • Gold had its worst week since November

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Tuesday: Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, Pony.ai

    • Wednesday: Baidu, Snowflake, Target, Zoom, TJX, Canada Goose

    • Thursday: Workday, Ralph Lauren, TD Bank Group, Ross, Intuit

    • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • The memecoin mania is going a little overboard. How much further though??

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • Moody's downgraded US to Aa1 (CNBC)

  • Foreign holdings of US debt soared to a record $9T in March (RT)

  • Trump tells Walmart to 'eat the tariffs' instead of raising prices (RT)

  • Wall Street say EM's wasted years are over (BBG)

  • Small banks fuel revival of SPAC deals (FT)

  • 'Reverse Yankee' deals hit record as US firms flock to euro debt market (FT)

  • Indian block trading hit a nine-month high as stocks bounce back (BBG)

  • US equity funds saw its first inflows in five weeks (RT)

  • Global equity funds saw the largest inflows in seven weeks (RT)

  • Private credit ratings are coming under increasing scrutiny (WSJ)

  • Chinese firms eye Singapore listings to expand markets amid trade war (RT)

  • UBS is in talks to compensate clients over tariff FX derivative losses (RT)

  • HSBC revamped investment bank in private credit push (BBG)

  • ByteDance aims to match Meta revenue this year (BBG)

  • Novo Nordisk fired its long-time CEO (CNBC)

  • Tesla named Chipotle exec Jack Hartung to the board (BBG)

  • UK will regulate BNPL lenders in legal overhaul (FT)

  • Fed will layoff 10% of staff (BBG)

  • Australia productivity hit a 60-year low (BBG)

  • Biden was diagnosed with cancer (CNBC

  • Russia and Ukraine are in talks for a ceasefire (BBG)

  • US college grads enter a 'freezing' labor market (FT)

A Message from Metronome

SaaS pricing is no longer just a finance decision—it's a product, growth, and customer success lever. That’s where Metronome comes in: powering billing and pricing for the most forward-thinking companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks. Whether you're shifting to usage-based pricing, layering on hybrid models, or just rethinking how to align price with value, Metronome gives you the infrastructure to move fast—with confidence.

Our expert team has helped leading product and finance teams design and operationalize pricing strategies that scale. Metronome is here to unlock your revenue, retention, and long-term pricing flexibility.

If you're exploring how to future-proof your pricing model, we're here to help. 

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Capital One completed its $35B all-stock acquisition of Discover to form America's largest credit-card issuer

  • Charter Communications agreed to merger with Cox Communications in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $34.5B valuation, including debt

  • European PE firm Cinven is pursuing a sale of telecom operator Ufinet at a $6.7B valuation 

  • Canadian oil giant Strathcona Resources plans to launch a $4B hostile cash-and-stock bid for MEG Energy after management rejected an earlier offer

  • UK's Primary Health Properties made a revised $2.2B cash-and-stock offer for rival healthcare REIT Assura 

  • Blackstone and Permira-backed online classifieds group Adevinta is exploring a sale of its Spanish business

  • Yogurt-maker Chobani acquired plant-based meal maker Daily Harvest

  • Brazil's Marfrig Global Foods offered to acquire the shares it doesn't already own in chicken producer BRF in a stock deal

  • Warner Bros. Discovery is in advanced talks to acquire a 50% JV stake in UK broadcaster TNT Sports from UK telecoms firm BT 

  • UK asset management giant Legal & General acquired a 75% stake in $3.5B AUM real estate PE firm Proprium Capital Partners

VC

  • Israeli data security startup Cyera is in talks to raise a $500M round at a $6B valuation led by Lightspeed, Greenoaks and Georgian

  • Akido, an AI and care delivery company, raised a $60M Series B led by Oak HC/FT

  • SpotitEarly, a startup using AI and dogs to detect cancer, raised $20.3M in funding from Hanaco VC, Menomedin VC, Jeff Swartz, and others

  • AI video startup Moonvalley raised a $53M round from a fourteen unnamed investors

  • CrediLinq, a Singaporean AI-powered embedded finance platform, raised an $8.5M Series A led by OM/VC and MS&AD Ventures

  • Agentic AI platform Hyperbots raised a $6.5M Series A led by Arkam Ventures and Athera Venture Partners

  • Egune AI, a Mongolian foundation model AI company, raised a $3.5M round led by Golomt Bank

  • AI data analytics startup Julius raised a seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partner

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Singapore Telecommunications sold 1.2% of its stake in India's Bharti Airtel for $1.54B

  • $30B-listed Chinese pork producer Muyuan Foods aims to raise over $1B in a Hong Kong listing

  • $2.3B-listed Chinese LiDAR giant Hesai confidentially filed for a Hong Kong listing

  • Swedish conglomerate Ratos is considering an IPO of its Nordic construction arm Sentia

  • Defense and space tech startup Voyager Technologies filed for an IPO

  • Aramco-owned chemicals firm SABIC is exploring an IPO of its gas business

Debt

  • TPG-backed school operator XCL Education raised $400M in private credit from Apollo, Partners Group, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura to refinance debt

  • Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are leading a $2.8B high-yield bond sale meant to back Flutter Entertainment's acquisition of Playtech's Italian gambling business

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Struggling luxury retailer Saks' creditors that hold over 50% of its $2.2B bond due 2029 formed a majority group and hired Lazard ahead of potential restructuring talks

  • Brazil's Gol Airlines secured $1.9B in debt commitments to exit Chapter 11

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Credit-focused Crestline Investors raised $3.5B for its fourth flagship private credit fund

  • Credit-focused TPG Twin Brook plans to raise $3B for the largest private credit continuation fund to date 

  • Healthcare tech-focused Denali Growth Partners raised $400M for its second fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Coinbase CEO rejected $20M ransom and offered $20M reward to catch hackers

  • Binance and Kraken also got hacked

  • Crypto VC funding is up 85% YoY

  • Galaxy Digital is in talks with SEC to tokenize its own stock

  • Fifth Third Bank plans more crypto after studying asset for five years

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

  • Check out OLarry, a personalized tax service for individuals and businesses with emerging wealth or high net worth. Providing a level of service previously only accessible to the ultra-high net worth, OLarry gives unlimited access to tax advice and strategy supported by industry experts and modern technology. Book a free consultation today and see why thousands use OLarry to tame their taxes. 

  • SS&C Intralinks DealCentre AITM brings speed and precision to every stage of your M&A deal. Because it's not just about managing transactions — it's about building momentum and trust. Don't wait on the market — set the pace with DealCentre AI. Learn more!

  • The annual Lit Cup is back for 2025! Litquidity's annual padel tournament featuring Wall Street's best is all set for ​June 28-29 at Reserve Padel in Hudson Yards, NYC. Join us for a weekend of padel, music, food, and fun as Wall Street folks compete for a shot at glory. RSVP here!

  • WSJ published a short valuation analysis on US stocks after all the recent market mayhem.

  • Despite a literal bear market and scary tech selloff, it seems that momentum stocks keep momentuming. 

  • With alternatives like PE increasingly creeping into retirement accounts, Retirement Researcher briefly explained the key principles to consider before diving in. 

Analyst Opportunity – VC / Growth Equity 💼

  • We are working with an anonymous VC / growth equity firm based in Los Angeles to help hire an analyst

  • The analyst will support the investment team throughout full deal lifecycles, including sourcing, screening, due diligence, and investment committee preparation, with additional responsibilities involving research, investor relations, and more

  • The ideal candidate has one year of investment banking or consulting and a passion for tech / software. Learn more and apply at Litney Partners

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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