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Good Morning,

Ray Dalio fully exited his stake in Bridgewater, US announced a wave of 'reciprocal' tariffs, and Figma's IPO was such a blockbuster that it raised fresh criticism on the inefficiencies and misaligned incentives behind stock market listings.

Transform your sleep for the better with Eight Sleep, technology trusted by the likes of Mark Zuckerberg and Lewis Hamilton.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks fell yesterday as investors braced for further mega cap earnings and US tariff announcements

  • S&P fell for a third-straight day

  • S&P and Nasdaq hit intraday records before retreating

  • VIX index is at a six-month low

• MSCI Asia Pacific index fell for a sixth-straight day in its longest losing streak YTD

  • South Korea's KOSPI index rallied to a four-year high as investors digested a UK-Korea trade deal

  • India's NIFTY 50 index turned negative YTD on US tariffs 

• Saudi's Tadawul All-Share index is down 10% YTD to become one of the world's worst performing markets as IPOs lose sparkle

• Romania's BET index rallied to an ATH amid their government's plan to list more stakes in state companies 

• Solactive China Humanoid Robotics index is up 75% YoY, over four times higher than China's broad CSI 300 index

• Dollar rose 2.7% in July in its first monthly gain since Trump's inauguration

  • EM currencies fell for a fifth-straight day for its first monthly decline YTD

  • Indian rupee is near a record low

Earnings

• Apple beat Q2 earnings and posted its strongest revenue growth since December 2021 amid success in China and early buying ahead of potential tariffs, while projecting tariff costs at $1.1B (CNBC)

• Amazon beat Q2 earnings estimates with 13% revenue growth and an 18% rise in AWS revenue, but issued a lighter-than-expected profit forecast as AWS growth continues to lag behind Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud, raising investor concerns over Amazon's $100B AI investment plan (CNBC)

• Coinbase reported mixed Q2 results, with profit surging to $1.4B fueled by investment gains including a pretax boost from stablecoin provider Circle, but revenue fell short of expectations; the company also plans to follow suit with Robinhood and launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets in US (WSJ)

• KKR beat Q2 earnings estimates as management fees rose 17% YoY, offsetting a slowdown in exits, as the firm expands into wealth, infrastructure, and credit while raising its largest-ever $6.5B credit fund; the firm sees current momentum beating 2026 targets (BBG)

• Reddit topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates driven by a 21% increase in global DAU and growing popularity of its AI-powered Reddit Answers tool, which now has 6M weekly users (CNBC)

• Mastercard beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates driven by a 10% increase in worldwide purchase volume and a 9% rise in US purchase volumes amid improving consumer sentiment (CNBC)

• Strategy beat Q2 revenue and earnings estimates, reporting a massive $14B unrealized gain from its Bitcoin holdings, solidifying its position as the world's first and largest Bitcoin treasury company (BBG)

• CVS Health beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and raised its outlook amid strength in its retail pharmacy business but noted pressure in insurance as medical benefit ratios increased, while the company pursues $2B in cost cuts as part of a broader turnaround plan (CNBC)

• Roblox issued a Q2 beat-and-raise with net bookings up 51% YoY and DAU rising 41%; the firm highlighted plans to capture 10% of the global gaming content market (CNBC)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: ExxonMobil, Chevron

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Kalshi is officially offering prediction contracts on pre-IPO and IPO markets. Interesting stuff especially if you've felt the Figma FOMO…

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• US announced wave of tariffs on eve of deadline (BBG)

• US raised Canada tariffs to 35% (BBG)

• US gave Mexico 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs (BBG)

• Big central bank slow rate cuts with tariffs and politics in focus (RT)

• Ray Dalio sold his remaining stake in Bridgewater and left the board (BBG)

• Blue Owl CEO warned of manic market for PE secondaries stakes (FT)

• Wells Fargo named CEO Scharf as chairman with $30M award (RT)

• PE funds in Korea face risks from proposed bills (BBG)

• Central bank gold buying slows after record rally cools demand (BBG)

• Figma's blockbuster IPO gave CEO Dylan Field a $6B fortune (BBG)

• Figma's top VC backers are now sitting on over $24B of stock (CNBC)

• Figma IPO returned $7B each to VCs Index and Greylock (BBG)

• Figma is the largest VC-backed tech IPO since 2021 (WSJ)

• TSMC stock price dislocation hit its widest level in 16 years (BBG)

• OpenAI launched Stargate in Europe with a data center in Norway (BBG)

• China summoned Nvidia over H20 chip security risks (BBG)

• Moderna will cut 10% of staff to offset slowing Covid business (BBG)

• AI talent frenzy is a mixed bag for VCs (WSJ)

• Musk is bankrolling Republican candidates despite feud with Trump (FT)

• Women now occupy ~20% of top VC roles (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Blackstone emerged as the frontrunner to buy energy-focused data provider Enverus from PE firm Hellman & Friedman for $6B

• Brookfield Wealth Solutions agreed to acquire UK insurer Just Group for $3.2B at a 75% premium

• Midstream energy-and-logistics business MPLX will acquire Five Point Infrastructure-backed Northwind Midstream for $2.4B

• Salesforce and ServiceNow are in advanced talks to invest $1.5B in Permira and Hellman & Friedman-backed enterprise software firm Genesys Cloud Services

• State-backed asset manager SWF Arab Investment Co. plans to sell all $1.2B of its legacy assets as part of a pivot toward private markets

• Asset manager WisdomTree agreed to acquire $1.8B AUM farmland-investment specialist Ceres Partners in a $500M deal

• European bourse Euronext offered to acquire the Athens Stock Exchange in an all-stock deal at a $472M valuation, representing a ~19% premium

• Air France withdrew from talks to acquire a stake in Spain's Air Europa after failing to reach an agreement with parent company Globalia

• Freight operator CSX is exploring a potential merger

VC

• AI infrastructure startup fal raised a $125M Series C at a $1.5B valuation led by Meritech 

• Saphyre, an AI-powered software platform for automating FinOps and trading workflows, raised $70M in growth equity from FTV Capital

• SAFE, a startup building cyber risk management solutions, raised a $70M Series C led by Avataar Ventures

• Turkish mobile game developer Good Job Games raised a $60M Series A led by Menlo Ventures and Anthos Capital

• Wallarm, an API and AI security platform, raised a $55M Series C led by Toba Capital

• Ultromics, an AI-driven cardiology diagnostics startup, raised a $55M Series C co-led by L&G, Allegis Capital, and Lightrock

• Augmodo, a real-time inventory and task tracker using spatial AI, raised a $37.5M Series A led by TQ Ventures

• Unmind, a startup building an enterprise mental health platform, raised a $35M round from TELUS Global Ventures 

• Sava Technologies, a startup building wearable biosensors, raised a $19M Series A led by Balderton Capital and Pentland Ventures

• Knit, an AI platform for enterprise consumer research, raised a $16.1M Series A led by GFT Ventures and Sound Ventures

• Command Zero, an autonomous and AI-assisted cyber investigation platform, raised $10M from Okta Ventures, SE Ventures, and Crosspoint Capital

• Blaxel, a cloud infrastructure company designed specifically for AI agents, raised a $7.3M seed round led by First Round Capital

• TACEO, a startup enabling secure data sharing, raised a $5.5M seed round led by Archetype VC

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Design software firm Figma rose a whopping 350% in its trading debut to hit a $65B market cap after its $1.2B IPO was 40x oversubscribed; the stock opened at over 250% its IPO price and ended ~350% higher after trading was halted 

• Swedish BNPL fintech Klarna is weighing a revival of its US IPO to raise over $1B at an over $15B valuation

• India's Tata Motors plans to raise ~$1.15B of equity to repay the loan funding its $4.5B offer to buy Italian truck maker IVECO's trucks and bus business

• Bain Capital-backed Indian auto-components maker Dhoot Transmission is considering a $250M India IPO by next year

• World's largest caviar producer Kaluga Queen is considering a Hong Kong IPO

• US is discussing monetizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including a major public offering of stock

• Activist investor Carronade Capital Management urged satellite firm Viasat to split its broadband and defense businesses

• AT&T will dual list on NYSE Texas in the latest win for the new exchange

Debt

• AI cloud computing firm CoreWeave raises $2.6B in debt for its OpenAI agreement

• UK utility Southern Water is raising $993M through a senior secured bond, marking the largest pound corporate debt deal in eighteen months

• Ivory Coast is in talks with Standard Chartered and SocGen to secure an $916M syndicated loan to support its national budget

• Stanford University is considering selling $500M of taxable bonds in rush to secure financing

• Carlyle is leading a $390M preferred equity financing to back CC Capital Partners' $2.2B LBO of Australian wealth manager Insignia Financial

Fundraising / Secondaries

• VC Frazier Life Sciences raised a $1.3B fund

• Chinese state-backed investment banks CICC and China Galaxy Securities plan to launch funds worth over $1B in Southeast Asia

• Global asset manager Nuveen secured $785M for its third lending fund

• Hedge fund Point72 is raising $400M for its first client-facing VC fund to back early-stage defense, space, energy, and security startups

• Japanese lender SMBC set up a $300M VC fund to invest in US fintech startups

• Lower MM PE firm Architect Equity raise for $285M its Fund I

• Skyline Investors, an impact-driven private investment firm, raised $125M for its debut fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• SEC debuted Project Crypto to bring US financial markets 'on chain'

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• Benchmark GP Bill Gurley published an insightful critique of the inefficiencies in IPO markets, some on full display in Figma's blockbuster IPO.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out our recruiting firm, Litney Partners. Established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners has placed strong candidates across leading firms spanning private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, private credit, investment banking, and fintech. Head over to our website to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

We are able to move faster than most firms due to our paralleled reach, decades of industry expertise, and ability to attract top caliber candidates.

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and/or are curious to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play reviews every submission and will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They’ve grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.