Layoffs Hit DC

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PE is picking a bone with creditors, Morgan Stanley upped its Twitter LBO debt offering, Goldman slashed minimums for its partner alumni fund, China retaliated on US tariffs, hedge funds had their best month in a year on Trump and DeepSeek volatility, and 20k federal workers already accepted DOGE's 'buyout.'

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/4/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks rallied yesterday as trade uncertainty kept markets guessing

  • Traders exited US 2Y long bets by the most since November to turn more neutral as tariffs cloud outlook

  • Emerging market stocks and FX climbed by the most since September and January respectively on easing fears of trade wars

Earnings

  • Alphabet fell 8% on a Q4 revenue miss as growth in its advertising and cloud units dipped from the year earlier and FY CapEx plans topped $25B (CNBC)

  • AMD fell 9% despite beating Q4 earnings estimates as it missed data center revenue expectations (CNBC

  • Spotify surged 13% despite missing Q4 earnings estimates as it reported its first FY profit and beat revenue and MAU expectations (CNBC

  • PayPal plunged 13% despite beating on Q4 earnings, Q1 forecasts, and announcing a $15B buyback as its card-processing growth slowed amid focus on profit (CNBC

  • Snap rose 5% after beating Q4 estimates as AI tools boosted strength in its advertising platform, though it missed on Q1 forecasts (CNBC

  • Chipotle fell 5% despite beating Q4 earnings estimates due to a weak FY same-store sales forecast (CNBC

  • Apollo beat Q4 earnings estimates on record fee-related earnings, solid growth in its retirement business, and a 15% increase in AUM (RT)

  • KKR fell 9% after missing on Q4 AUM and fee-related earnings, which dampened optimism in its capital markets business (RT

  • Mattel jumped 7% after beating Q4 earnings estimates and forecasting strong FY profit on stable holiday demand for its Barbie and Hot Wheels toys (RT)

  • What we're watching this week: 

    • Today: Qualcomm, Disney, Uber, Arm, Ford

    • Thursday: Amazon, Eli Lilly 

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • China retaliated against US tariffs (WSJ)

  • US job openings fell to a three-month low (BBG)

  • 1% of federal workforce already accepted DOGE 'buyout' (BBG)

  • Treasury says DOGE access is 'read-only' (WSJ)

  • Treasury hired two members from DOGE (BBG)

  • PE firms are finding new ways to curb creditor power (BBG)

  • Apollo CEO says wave of asset partnerships will shake up Wall Street (FT)

  • Japan mulls tougher MBO rules to protect minority shareholders (BBG)

  • Hedge funds had the best month since February 2024 (RT)

  • Bridgewater's flagship fund gained 8.2% in January (RT)

  • Tariffs could cause yield curve to flatten (WSJ)

  • Investment bankers save the day in Europe as rate boost fades (BBG)

  • World's biggest derivatives market stays resilient despite crackdown (BBG)

  • Goldman slashed fees and minimums for new alumni fund by 90% (FT)

  • Goldman entered Europe's active ETF market (FT)

  • UBS warns $3B buyback plan is hostage to Swiss capital overhaul (FT)

  • Fed ends two punishments imposed on Wells Fargo in 2011 (RT)

  • Nick Giovanni will rejoin Goldman as partner in TMT IB (RT)

  • Citigroup bucks RTO trend and sticks to hybrid work (FT)

  • Twitter financials under Musk signal recovery in 2024 (BBG)

  • Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI may go to trial (RT)

  • Tesla sales slumped in Europe amid potential unfavorable politics (RT)   

  • Match Group fired and replaced their CEO (WSJ)

  • EstĂ©e Lauder will cut 7k jobs (WSJ)

  • Salesforce will cut 1k jobs while hiring 1k in AI sales (BBG)

  • Commodities trader ADM slashed 700 jobs amid trade war threats (FT)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Nissan and Honda may call off merger talks

  • Southeast Asian ride-hailing firm Grab is considering an all-stock takeover of rival GoTo at a $7B valuation

  • Canada's CPP Investments is weighing a sale or IPO of US O&G producer Encino Acquisition Partners at a $7B valuation, including debt

  • KKR upsized its offer for Japanese software developer Fuji Soft to $4.3B in its bidding war with Bain Capital

  • McKesson agreed to acquire an 85% stake in eye-care management services provider PRISM Vision from PE firm Quad-C for $850M

  • SWF Indonesia Investment Authority and Japan's Mitsui & Co are interested in acquiring CVC's 25% stake in Indonesian toll road operator RKE International, which is worth $300M

  • $300M-listed UK banknote printer De La Rue began a formal sales process after receiving additional takeover interest

VC

  • AI programmatic advertising platform StackAdapt raised a $235M round at a $2.5B valuation led by OTPP's Teachers' Venture Growth

  • Indian AI startup Krutrim raised a $230M investment from Ola founder Bhavish Aggarwal

  • Solaris, a B2B embedded finance and banking-as-a-service platform, raised a $154M Series G led by SBI Group and Boerse Stuttgart Group

  • Hidden Level, a passive radar and radio frequency sensing technology, raised a $65M Series C led by DFJ Growth

  • Archive, a software solutions for fashion brands to create resale platforms, raised a $30M Series B led by Energize Capital

  • Project management software for architecture and engineering Monograph raised a $20M Series B led by Base10 Partners

  • Atombeam, a data-as-codewords technology startup, raised $20M in crowdfunding

  • Qount, a developer of AI-powered practice management software solutions for public accounting firms, raised a $17M round led by Savant Growth

  • Khazna, an Egyptian fintech helping low-income workers access banking services, raised a $16M pre-Series B led by Quona and Speedinvest

  • AI agent platform Olas raised a $13.8M round led by 1kx

  • INFI USA, an AI self-service software platform, raised a $12M Series A led by MK Capital

  • Fimple, a cloud-native core banking software, raised a $12M Series A led by DN Capital and Smartfin

  • MAVOCO, a connectivity management software for the IoT, raised an $11.4M Series A+ led by 3TS Capital Partners and red-stars.com

  • Branch Energy, a startup helping customers lower energy bills and carbon footprint, raised a $10.8M Series A led by Prelude Ventures and Zero Infinity Partners

  • Digital property management company hallo theo raised a $10.4M round led by Insight Partners

  • Medical device company Sirius Medical raised $10M in additional funding led by Invest-NL and Nextgen Ventures

  • Cinamon, a South Korean AI-animated video generation platform, raised an $8.5M Series B from Altos Venture and Saehan Venture Capital

  • Desteia, a startup supporting supply chain leaders and operators, raised an $8M seed round led by Autotech Ventures, Nazca, and Village Global

  • Tandem, a platform that discovers, leases, and manages office spaces, raised a $6.1M seed round led by Collide Capital, 1984 Ventures, and Y Combinator

  • Neuralk-AI, a startup developing AI models specifically designed for spreadsheet data, raised $4M in funding led by Fly Ventures

  • LogicStar, an AI agents for software maintenance, raised a $3M pre-seed round led by Northzone

  • Presentations.ai, an Indian AI startup building 'ChatGPT for presentations,' raised a $3M seed round led by Accel

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Thoma Bravo-backed enterprise security software firm SailPoint is seeking to raise $1.05B at an $11.5B valuation in a US IPO

  • LG's diversified technology-services unit LG CNS raised $821M in South Korea's largest IPO since 2022

  • German medtech Brainlab is preparing a Frankfurt IPO at a $2.3B-$3.1B valuation

  • State-backed Investment Corp. of Dubai is seeking to raise $500M in a local IPO of construction firm ALEC Engineering & Contracting

  • Chinese bubble tea drinks company Guming is seeking to raise $202M in a Hong Kong IPO

  • Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange Bullish Global is weighing an IPO

Debt

  • Banks led by of Morgan Stanley upsized their Twitter debt offering from $3B to $5.5B

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Private Brazilian airline Voepass filed for preparatory creditors protection due to a plane crash last August

Fundraising

  • Apollo raised a $5B multi-strategy credit fund with a 30-year maturity

  • Real estate credit investor Balbec Capital closed its sixth flagship fund at $1.7B

  • Pearl Energy Investments closed its fourth fund at $1B

  • German VC Cherry Ventures closed its latest fund at $500M to back European startups

  • Centerbridge alum Billy Rahm launched Everview Partners to invest in North American real estate and infrastructure 

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • US Congress will form a cryptocurrency working group

  • Trump's crypto czar is studying feasibility of a US Bitcoin reserve

  • Coinbase urged US regulators to clear path for banks to offer crypto services

  • $1B of Ether left centralized exchanges amid Monday's crash

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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