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Good Morning,

Stocks tumbled yesterday as markets got double whammied by surging oil prices and a disappointing start to 'Mag 7' earnings.

Elsewhere, US is making a tariff comeback, hedge funds are growing at the fastest rate ever, and Japan wants to regulate the market for Pokemon cards.

Polymarket just launched Polymarket Institutional Research, a new publication exploring the intersection of prediction markets with the global financial system. Original analysis straight from their Institutional Desk. Subscribe to receive their insights here.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 7/23/2026 market close.

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks slumped yesterday as investors digested surging oil prices and disappointing early Big Tech earnings 

    • 'Magnificent 7' stocks lost $800B in market cap

  • US 10Y yield surged to the highest since January 2025 

  • Brent crude futures surged past $100/bbl for the first time since May

Earnings

  • Blackstone profit surged in Q2 on gains in investments from the massive AI buildout across all its major strategies including PE, credit, infrastructure, and real estate (WSJ)

  • Intel beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on its fastest revenue growth rate in fifteen years as the firm captures sustainable growth across its CPU franchise amid an unprecedented demand for compute (CNBC)

  • American Airlines beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but cut its FY outlook as a jump in fares fails to fully offset higher fuel costs (CNBC)

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Not even a 1% chance that he joins Anthropic as a member of technical staff??

  • Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Headline Roundup

  • Japan is considering regulating the market for Pokemon cards (BBG)

  • US hits 60 countries with new duties in tariff comeback (CNBC)

  • Trump threatens more Iran attacks after Houthis join war (BBG)

  • Hedge funds grew at the fastest rate ever in Q2 amid the AI boom (FT)

  • The most fundamental macro risk is back: rising inflation volatility (BBG)

  • Hedge fund-favorite basis trade is sputtering (BBG)

  • Truth Social fast feed for Trump posts sparks Wall Street backlash (FT)

  • Rich Asians swap sponsorships for sports stakes (RT)

  • DOJ will fast-track merger probes by curbing information requests (BBG)

  • Blackstone is addressing community concerns around AI (RT)

  • Goldman offers way to trade AI junk bonds $250M at a time (BBG)

  • Wellington is passing on data center debt on property value concerns (BBG)

  • Musk keeps Tesla-SpaceX merger rumors alive amid growing overlap (RT)

  • SpaceX short sellers are sitting on $15B of paper profits (RT)

  • Google holds $94B in SpaceX shares following IPO (BBG)

  • Google's Anthropic stake jumped to $124B (BBG)

  • Macquarie named veteran Greg Ward as new CEO (RT)

  • Ex-Barclays CEO Jes Staley testifies in Congress over Epstein ties (FT)

Introducing Polymarket Institutional Research 

Polymarket Institutional Research is a new publication exploring the intersection of Polymarket with the global financial system — original analysis built directly on our markets, written by the Institutional Desk. From Anthropic's valuation strip, to the Hormuz reopening gap, to the future of Lagarde at the ECB.

If your financial institution is looking to engage with event contracts, the Polymarket Institutional Desk is scaling up. For information on block trades, market making, and commercial data sales on either our U.S. or international exchanges, reach out below.

What's Inside:

  • Weekly market briefings

  • Deep dives on forecast scenarios and LP opportunities

  • Quarterly liquidity & microstructure reports with full depth data

  • Direct access to our research team via dedicated Slack

Sign up for Polymarket research access.

Polymarket Institutional Research

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • Merger talks between Singapore's largest state-backed property asset managers CapitaLand. and Mapletree stalled on valuation concerns; the firms are valued at a combined $24B

  • Spain's $20B-listed Cellnex Telecom is exploring a take-private or merger 

  • Fintech Stripe is in talks to acquire LLM API startup OpenRouter for $10B

  • Tech billionaire Vinod Khosla is in talks to add ex-Sequoia managing partner Mark Stevens, Sixth Street, Carlyle, and Dynasty Equity to his consortium acquiring the NFL's Seattle Seahawks for $9.6B

  • $6.8B-listed Japanese lenders Iyo ​Bank is set to merge with $600M-listed peer Ehime Bank 

  • Swiss freight group Kuehne+Nagel International is considering a 20% stake sale in its Asia-focused freight forwarder Apex Logistics; the unit was recently valued at over $4B

  • Shale producer Matador Resources agreed to buy Permian Basin assets from EnCap Investments for $1.3B cash

  • South African financial services group Absa is nearing a deal to combine its Absa Bank Tanzania unit into National Bank of Commerce to hold $3B equity

  • Owner Property & Building Corp. is seeking over $800M for Manhattan's 10 Bryant Park fka HSBC Tower

  • IBM agreed to buy quantum computing research lab HRL Laboratories from Boeing and General Motors

  • Mark Cuban's Harbinger Sports Partners will buy a minority stake in MLB's Vegas-bound Athletics

  • KKR plans to gradually sell its stake in Taiwan chemical maker LCY Group

  • Enilive, a KKR-backed unit of Italian oil major Eni, will buy fuel service station business Oil Tankstellen from Prax 

  • AI coding startup Cognition will acquire personal AI agent startup Interaction

VC

  • Assured, a healthcare technology company, raised a $19M Series A led by Insight Partners  

  • telli, a German startup building AI agents for customer-facing operations, raised a $15M seed round led by redalpine

  • Phoenix Lab (Cheiron), an AI drug discovery startup, raised an $8M seed round led by Menlo Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • McCormick picked London as a secondary listing location just months after striking a $5B merger with Unilever's food business 

  • China's Semight Instruments is considering a Hong Kong listing after shares surged 2,200% for a $30B market cap since their China IPO in April

Debt

  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners is in talks to sell bonds backed by over $1B of stakes in some private capital funds

  • Cable One is facing a steep cost on a $1B loan to finalize the buyout of Mega Broadband Investments to satisfy a looming put option held by PE firm GTCR

  • Blackstone led a $400M deal to support Harvest Partners' LBO of HVAC firm Integra Testing Services from Keystone Capital

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Portugal will eliminate debt at state-owned loss-making leisure carrier Azores Airlines ahead of its latest attempt to sell a 75% stake

  • Troubled UK carpet maker Victoria secured enough bondholder support for a consensual debt restructuring after HSBC backed the plan at the last minute

Funds / Secondaries

  • Tech PE firm Francisco Partners raised $21B across its eighth flagship fund and fourth MM fund

  • Institutional Venture Partners is raising $1.8B for its nineteenth flagship fund

  • Investment firm GCM Grosvenor raised $1.2B for its first credit secondaries fund

  • FOF StepStone raised $1B for a targeted $3.75B seventh VC secondaries fund 

  • South Africa SME Fund plans to raise $610M in venture capital to scale high-growth startups

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Crypto exchange BitMEX shut down 

  • Goldman CEO breaks with Wall Street to back crypto Clarity Act

  • CitSec's $400M deal marks digital asset era

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

Get Hired 🤝

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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