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Good Morning,

Short-bias ETFs see big inflows on market pullback bets, dollar shorts are starting to falter, GraniteShares shut its 3x short AMD ETF, SEC eased IPO regulations amid the government shutdown, and Jane Street is expanding its physical trading ambitions.

Holiday season means it's time for a wardrobe upgrade…and what better way than to start with a fresh pair of amberjacks.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 10/9/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks retreated from ATHs yesterday as the government shutdown continues

  • China's SSE Composite index hit a ten-year high

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a fresh ATH high

  • Argentine assets soared as US stepped in to buy pesos

  • US rare earths stocks surged after China tightened grip on global supplies

  • Indonesia 10Y yield fell to its lowest in four years as part of a broad EM debt rally

  • Silver hit a 45-year high

  • Asia's rice benchmark fell to a decade-low 

  • Dollar hit a two-month high

    • Hedge funds are betting on the dollar rally to extend into year-end

  • US mortgage rates fell for the first time in three weeks 

Earnings

  • PepsiCo beat Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and reiterated its FY forecast as international growth offset another quarter of declining volume in America (CNBC)

  • Delta beat Q3 revenue and earnings estimates on forecast a strong Q4 and Q1 thanks to rising airfares and resilient luxury travel demand (CNBC)

  • Levi's beat Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and raised FY sales guidance as price increases, steady demand, and a shift from wholesalers help offset tariff costs (CNBC)

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Who knew the government shutdown would emerge as a tail-risk in the recent IPO boom?

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • BLS recalled staff to prepare September CPI report (BBG)

  • SEC eases IPO path during government shutdown (RT)

  • Q3 earnings growth is expected to slow with spotlight on AI spending (RT)

  • FOMO trumps other worries as euphoria grips US stock options traders (RT)

  • Black Swan author Taleb warned of crash as debt crisis looms (BBG)

  • Jamie Dimon warns of US stock market correction risk (RT)

  • Short-bias ETFs see big inflows on market pullback bets (RT)

  • GraniteShares was forced to shutter 3x short AMD ETF (BBG)

  • Short dollar trade is turning into a pain trade for investors (BBG)

  • Influx of retirement funds could push private markets to daily pricing (RT)

  • Private credit investors sour on funds as rate cuts hurt payouts (BBG)

  • Jane Street is expanding its physical trading capabilities (FT

  • Saudi's PIF slows pace of work on local share sales (BBG)

  • China chip stocks test trader patience with soaring valuations (BBG)

  • Bank of Canada warned against over-regulation of financial sector (RT)

  • Canadian indigenous tribes muscle into Canada's bond market (BBG)

  • HSBC will look at more M&A after Hang Seng deal (RT)

  • Ex-UK PM Rishi Sunak joined Microsoft and Anthropic in advisory roles (FT)

  • Musk's Tesla package pays billions even if he misses 'Mars-shot' goals (RT)

  • NBA returned to China after 6-year rift (FT)

  • CFA Level II pass rates dropped below decade average to 44% (BBG)

A Message from amberjacks

Rated #1 Best Overall Dress Shoes

Cooler weather means it's time to upgrade your dress shoes, and there's no better place to look than Amberjack.

Amberjack is the modern footwear brand started by former executives from Adidas, Cole Haan, and McKinsey. They've created the world's most advanced dress shoes, made with proprietary athletic materials that deliver incredible comfort and A-grade leather vertically sourced from one of the world's leading tanneries.

They’ve been featured in Forbes, GQ, and Wall Street Journal and Men's Health named them the most comfortable business casual shoe of 2024. The only downside is they constantly sell out – get yours today before they're gone!

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Citigroup rejected a $9.3B unsolicited bid from Mexican mining and transport conglomerate Grupo Mexico for its Mexican retail unit Banamex

  • Pharma giant Novo Nordisk agreed to acquire Akero Therapeutics for up to $5.2B

  • Mining giant Anglo American plans to relaunch a sale process for its Australian coking coal assets after Peabody Energy pulled out of a $3.8B deal 

  • Canadian O&G producer Baytex Energy is weighing a sale of its US operations for $3B

  • Saudi Aramco acquired a 22.5% stake in its refining and petrochemicals JV Petro Rabigh from Japan's Sumitomo Chemical for $702M

  • SoftBank's digital payment provider PayPay acquired a 40% stake in Binance's Japan unit

  • Chicago-based accounting firm Crowe is considering a stake sale to PE firms

  • UnitedHealth-backed healthcare firm Optum agreed to acquire primary care group Acton Medical Associates

  • Blackrock's Global Infrastructure Partners-backed Skyborn Renewables is looking to sell a stake in a German offshore wind farm

  • Diamondback Energy's mineral and royalty unit Viper Energy is exploring a sale of assets outside the Permian Basin

VC

  • Reflection AI, an open-source AI model startup, raised $2B at an $8B valuation led by Nvidia 

  • Stoke Space, a startup aiming to enable rapid, affordable launch for defense and national security missions, raised a $510M Series D led by USIT

  • German AI business automation startup n8n raised a $180M Series C at a $2.5B valuation led by Accel

  • Digital health platform DUOS raised a $130M round led by FTV Capital

  • Password management platform 1Password sold $100M in secondary shares at a $6.8B valuation to Halo Fund, Flume Ventures, and others

  • ​​David AI Labs, an audio data company for training AI models, raised $50M at a $500M valuation led by Meritech Capital 

  • Legal contract review platform Spellbook raised a $50M Series B at a $350M valuation led by Khosla Ventures

  • Yendo, a vehicle-secured credit card startup, raised a $50M Series B led by Autotech Ventures, FPV Ventures, and others

  • David AI, a startup building diverse audio datasets for next-gen AI, raised a $50M Series B led by Meritech and Nvidia

  • Scorability, a startup helping college coaches connect with athletes, raised a $40M round led by Bluestone Equity Partners

  • Routefusion, a cross-border payments startup, raised a $26.5M Series A led by PeakSpan Capital 

  • Distributed data storage startup Tigris Data raised a $25M Series A led by Spark Capital

  • AI-driven growth platform Nexl raised a $23M Series B led by Tidemark Capital

  • Transcrypts, a startup building tools for people to own and share verified credentials, raised a $15M seed round led by Pantera Capital

  • Datacurve, a startup building an infrastructure for post-training data collection, raised a $15M Series A led by Chemistry

  • Cyvl, an AI infrastructure intelligence platform, raised a $14M Series A led by Sentinel Global

  • AI care delivery platform Zingage raised a $12.5M seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners

  • Block Street, a crypto infrastructure startup for tokenized stocks, raised an $11.5M round led by Hack VC

  • Alec's Ice Cream, a regenerative ice cream brand, raised an $11M Series A led by Imaginary Ventures

  • Vulcan Technologies, a reg-tech startup helping government agencies and legal professionals with regulatory drafting and compliance, raised a $10.9M seed round led by General Catalyst and Cubit Capital

  • Cybersecurity startup Sitehop raised a $10M round led by Northern Gritstone

  • Knapsack, a collaboration platform for enterprises, raised a $10M Series A led by Builders VC

  • Everyset, a management solution for background performers in the entertainment industry, raised $9M in funding led by Crosslink Capital and Haven Ventures

  • Azuro, a Swiss proptech and lifestyle startup, raised $5.7M in funding from Infinitas Capital and Daniel Bronk

  • Focal, an AI-based productivity platform for financial advisors, raised a $5M seed round led by Distributed Ventures and Wischoff Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Franco-German defense giant KNDS selected Lazard for its Dutch IPO targeting an over $23B valuation

  • Korean electronics conglomerate LG Electronics raised $1.3B in an Indian IPO of its Indian unit which was 54x oversubscribed, making it India's second-most heavily bid billion-dollar-plus issue

Debt

  • Carlyle and GIC-backed specialty chemicals producer Nouryon withdrew a $5.8B dual-currency leveraged loan deal

  • Abu Dhabi SWF ADQ is close to securing a $4B syndicated loan from Chinese banks

  • Fortress-backed high-speed railroad builder Brightline West is in talks with bondholders to exchange $2.5B of munis for new securities

  • JPMorgan is weighing an SRT tied to $2B in private jet loans

  • Blackstone-backed events giant Clarion Events is in talks to raise $1.5B in private credit

  • Dunkin' sold $900M of bonds backed by franchisee fees

  • Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup is seeking $500M in private credit

  • Canadian mortgage lender First National Financial is preparing a $430M bond sale

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • A JV between Norinchukin Bank and Japanese trading house Mitsui faces a $1.75B exposure to bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands

  • First Brands' go-to bank Jefferies opened books as fallout builds

  • US is investigating the collapse of First Brands

  • BlackRock and Franklin Advisers cut their exposure to Puerto Rico's power utility Prepa's bonds as its bankruptcy remains in limbo

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Private credit firm Golub Capital will commit $1B to a new secondaries fund to back other PE firms' single-asset continuation vehicles

  • Ecosystem Investment Partners raised over $400M for its fifth flagship fund

  • Biotech VC Ascenta raised $325M for its debut fund 

  • Origin Ventures raised $140M for its sixth fund

  • Bitcoin founding father Barry Silbert launched AI crypto asset manager Yuma with a $10M seed from DCG to make VC-like bets 

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Gold miners outstrip AI and Bitcoin to put 'unloved' industry in spotlight

  • Governments weighing crypto reserves target $75B pot

  • Bitcoin Jesus Roger Ver reached a deal to settle tax fraud case with federal prosecutors 

  • Bitcoin ATMs are increasingly used by scammers to target victims

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

  • JPMorgan's NYC real estate ambitions are more than just a new headquarters. They're building a whole neighborhood. How does Dimonville sound?

  • Washington Post published a highly insightful in-depth report into the addictive nature of TikTok. Read it here.

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