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Good Morning,

Apollo will join the S&P 500, TikTok's ban was upheld in court, Jane Street and Millennium settled their lawsuit, billionaire media-owners want to confront the news distrust issue, and Trump has no plan to replace J Pow.

In 2025, there is absolutely zero reason for financial modeling to be as tedious as it is, and Mosaic has the biggest names agreeing. Try 'em out and see why their digital deal modeling platform is taking the industry by storm.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks rose on Friday as jobs data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut this month 

  • Traders priced in an 85% chance of a 25 bps rate cut

  • S&P and Nasdaq rose to new highs in their third-straight winning weeks

• Traders see ECB rates falling to as low as 1.75% from 3.25% now

• Russian ruble rebounded past 100 vs dollar in its best week in four months

Earnings

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Oracle, Toll Brothers 

  • Tuesday: AutoZone, GameStop

  • Wednesday: Adobe, Macy's 

  • Thursday: Costco, Broadcom

• Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

• Trump will not try to replace J Pow (BBG)

• US unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% (CNBC)

• Canada unemployment hit 6.8%, an eight-year high (RT)

• Eurozone productivity growth remained weak in Q3 (RT)

• Investment banks eye 2025 income boom on Trump deal rebound (RT)

• Equity funds drew inflows for a fifth-straight week (RT)

• Cash saw the biggest weekly inflow since March 2023 (RT)

• PIMCO warns trade war fallout could trigger deep ECB rate cuts (FT)

• Global food prices soared to a 19-month high (WSJ)

• Dubai's mega tech IPO solidifies turnaround that began in 2021 (BBG)

• Australia moves ahead to scrap AT1 bonds after Credit Suisse hit (BBG)

• Apollo and Workday will join the S&P 500 (BBG)

• Jane Street and Millennium settled their trade secrets lawsuit (FT)

• WTW puts 'multi-manager' strategy to the test (FT)

• TikTok ban was upheld in appeals court (CNBC)

• TikTok-owner ByteDance is leading the AI R&D race in China (FT)

• EU antitrust regulators are probing Nvidia's business practices (RT)

• ANZ Group named HSBC banker Nuno Matos as CEO (BBG)

• Supermicro got an extension to file delayed annual report (WSJ)

• TikTok Shop spending overtook Shein and Temu in US (RT)

• Ant Group's president Han will become CEO (RT)

• Apple plans three-year modem rollout to compete with Qualcomm (BBG)

• Billionaires like Bezos plan to overhaul US news groups amid trust decline (FT)

• Russia-to-China pipeline gas flows hit a new record (BBG)

• Musk spent over $250M to help elect Trump (RT)

• South Korean investment in US is giving rise to 'Koreatowns' (FT)

A Message from Mosaic

Model with Mosaic

By now, I'm sure you've heard of the buzz worthy deal modeling platform, Mosaic.

Mosaic was recently featured in Bloomberg and FT for their next-gen technology that allows investment professionals to build LBO models in mere minutes.

The platform was built by PE veterans themselves, and its accuracy, complexity and practicality virtually eliminates the tediousness of modeling tasks that many of us face daily.

I wish I had this tool during my PE days and I'm not surprised that Mosaic is emerging as the new industry standard in deal modeling.

Some of the biggest investors already use Mosaic to save hours on modeling workflows and it's something that you must try.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Allianz and Amundi paused merger talks to create a $2.8T asset management unit 

• Omnicom is in advanced talks to buy $10.9B-listed Interpublic in a deal that would create the world's largest advertising firm

• Blackstone and EQT advanced as bidders for Platinum Equity-owned Spanish waste management firm Urbaser, which could fetch a $5.3B valuation

• UK insurer Aviva agreed to acquire smaller rival Direct Line for $4.6B in cash and stock

• Apollo, EQT, and Stonepeak are vying to acquire waste management firm GFL's environmental services unit, which could fetch over $4.2B after tax

• BP is seeking to sell an up to 49% stake in its US natural gas pipeline network, which could fetch $3B

• PE firm Trive Capital is exploring a sale or IPO of defense contractor Karman Space & Defense at a $3B+ valuation

• Macquarie is exploring a sale of its $1.2B helicopter leasing business Macquarie Rotorcraft

• CVC is exploring an acquisition of $929M-listed German software firm CompuGroup Medical

• Interpublic Group acquired Indian retail analytics firm Intelligence Node in a $100M deal

• Goldman Sachs is exploring a potential sale of its ETF Accelerator platform which helps institutional clients launch their own ETFs

• Shareholders of French video game maker Ubisoft is in talks for a MBO

• Carlyle and Vitol-backed European energy firm Varo Energy is in talks to buy Preem's Swedish refineries

• Startup Tortoise Media agreed to acquire The Observer newspaper from UK's Guardian

• Italian lender UniCredit is ready to sit down with French lender Credit Agricole after Credit Agricole increased its stake in Unicredit's takeover target Banco BPM

VC

• AI-first student engagement platform Element451 received a $175M strategic investment from PSG

• UK neobank Zopa raised an $87M round at a $1B+ valuation led by A.P. Moller

• Planet A Foods, a startup make cocoa-free chocolate, raised a $30M Series B led by Burda Principal Investments and Zintinus

• Maternal health company Nua Surgical raised a $7.1M Series A led by EQT

• Much Better Adventures, a travel tech specializing in active outdoor adventure, raised a $5.3M seed round led by Gresham House Ventures

• Jove, a UK AI-powered insurtech platform, raised a $4.6M seed round led by Explorer Investments

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Trading platform EToro is preparing a US IPO at a $3.5B valuation

• Oilfield services provider Flowco filed for a US IPO at a ~$2B valuation

• The Indian unit of South Korea's LG Electronics filed for a local IPO at a $1.8B valuation

• GIC-backed manufactured-housing communities operator Yes! is exploring a $1B US IPO

• Swiss-based global construction materials firm Holcim's plans for US spinoff will also include a Swiss listing

SPAC

• Sustainable battery recycler Ace Green Recycling will merge with Athena Technology Acquisition Corp. II in a $250M deal

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Trucking company Kal Freight filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

• UK retail group Frasers intends to make an offer for all shares of struggling Norwegian sporting goods retailer XXL for $22M

• Frasers is urging to prevent a fire sale of fashion retailer Boohoo's assets 

Fundraising

• PE firm Advent International is seeking to raise $25B for its next flagship buyout fund

• VC Heartcore Capital closed its fifth fund at $180M to invest in compute stack, synthetic biology, AI, software infrastructure, travel, and climate tech

Crypto Corner

• FDIC prevented crypto banking at numerous US banks in 2022 (CD)

• Young men are making risky bets on crypto and politics (WSJ)

• Crypto clocked its largest four-week inflow ever (RT)

• Crypto industry frustrated over possible SEC commissioner Caroline Crenshaw's renomination (CS)

Exec’s Picks

• It's not too late to capitalize on Bitcoin soaring to $100,000. Chicago Atlantic Digital Mining Fund offers 32% historical returns, monthly distributions, and the opportunity to benefit from appreciating energy infrastructure – Invest now to secure 2024's 60% bonus depreciation.

• Bloomberg Odd Lots recently sat down with Oaktree's Head of Sourcing & Origination Milwood Hobbs to learn how Oaktree finds great deals.

• Ben Carlson's latest piece talks about the four types of investment mistakes and how each affects investors.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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