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Good Morning,

US stock indexes hit fresh ATHs despite the US-Iran deadlock. Allbirds also ripped 600% after rebranding to an AI company. American Eagle also rallied on a renewed Sydney Sweeney campaign.

Exemplary stock market fundamentals on display here…just ask the Wall Street trading desks (the biggest winners from all the recent stock market drama).

Mizuho hosted their 8th Canadian O&G ratings conference during the depths of the Iran war. Some really interesting analyst perspectives considering the rapid market evolution since then. Check out some highlights.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 4/15/2026 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks rose to new highs on earnings and US-Iran optimism

    • S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh ATHs

    • S&P's ten-day gain is its best since the 2020 Covid rebound

    • Nasdaq's ten-day gain is its longest since 2021

  • Singapore bonds are beating US Treasuries by the most since 2007 on haven demand

Earnings

  • Morgan Stanley smashed Q1 estimates on the way to record revenue as trading results exceeded expectations by a whopping $1B; IB revenue also surged 36% (CNBC)

  • Bank of America beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates on record equities trading results, a surge in IB, and strong net interest income (CNBC)

  • ASML issued a Q1 beat-and-raise but its stock fell 6% on tightening export controls to China (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Netflix, TSMC, PepsiCo

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Markets are sleeping on Allbirds

  • Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Headline Roundup

  • US is optimistic about an Iran deal as it raises economic pressure (RT)

  • Trump threatened to fire J Pow if he doesn't quit following chair term (CNBC)

  • Trump acknowledged AI risks and backed safeguards for banking (RT)

  • Trump warned he could rip up US-UK trade deal (FT)

  • Allbirds soared after rebranding to an AI company (CNBC)

  • American Eagle rallied again after second Sydney Sweeney campaign (RT)

  • Wall Street banks predict IPO resilience as revenue climbs (BBG)

  • Largest US banks spent a record $33B on share buybacks in Q1 (FT)

  • BlackRock urged LPs to spread hedge fund bets amid market swings (RT)

  • 'BIFs' replace 'PIIGS' as Europe's bond market whipping boys (FT)

  • PIMCO CIO doesn't see systemic risk from private credit (RT)

  • Norway's $2T SWF has no plans to reduce US assets (FT)

  • Saudi's $1T SWF sets new strategy to build global champions (BBG)

  • Quant traders join push against bid to relax quarterly earnings (RT)

  • CFTC is probing insider oil trades made before Trump's Iran comments (RT)

  • SEC removed day-trading limit for small retail investors (BBG)

  • Snap will cut 16% of jobs (RT)

  • A federal jury found that Live Nation and Ticketmaster illegally monopolized ticket markets (CNBC)

  • K&E poached Wachtell's top RX lawyer with guaranteed $80M pay (FT)

  • US charged SantaCon promoter Stefan Pildes with fraud (NYT)

A Message from Mizuho

Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, shifting commodity fundamentals and evolving capital allocation priorities, Mizuho hosted senior analysts from S&P, Moody's, Fitch and Morningstar DBRS at its 8th annual Rating Agency Energy Panel Conference at the Calgary Petroleum Club. The discussions focused on how rating agencies are thinking about credit stability, financial policy discipline and longer-term structural risks across the Canadian energy complex.

Panelists emphasized that Canadian upstream balance sheets remain in very good condition following several years of deleveraging, with ratings outlooks broadly stable, while reiterating a focus on mid‑cycle price assumptions. For midstream companies, analysts highlighted strong underlying demand fundamentals, particularly for natural gas infrastructure tied to LNG exports and rising power demand from data centers. Across both panels, a consistent message emerged: ratings stability is supported by strong assets and broadly healthy balance sheets, but upside remains constrained by financial policy choices, regulatory uncertainty and execution risk on large capital projects.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • US has no opinion yet on a potential ~$40B United Airlines-American Airlines merger

  • A consortium of telecom groups Bouygues Telecom, Iliad, and Orange are in advanced talks to acquire SFR, the French business of indebted telecoms Altice, at a potential $23B valuation

  • Sazerac offered to acquire spirits giant Brown-Forman for $15B, crashing rival Pernod Ricard's merger talks

  • Spanish solar firm Solaria is in talks to join a Spain-backed consortium of Telefónica and ACS seeking to develop a $4.7B data center hub

  • HVAC conglomerate Johnson Controls International is weighing divesting its Access Control and Intrusion Detection units in its security division that could fetch $4.5B

  • Machine engineering firm Esco Technologies agreed to acquire TBG's testing unit Megger Group in a $2.35B cash-and-stock deal

  • UK insurer Standard Life agreed to buy the UK arm of Dutch insurer Aegon in a $2.7B cash and stock deal

  • Japanese beverages firm Suntory will buy Daiichi Sankyo Healthcare, the OTC subsidiary of pharma firm Daiichi Sankyo, in a $1.6B deal

  • Yum Brands-owned pizza chains Papa Johns and Pizza Hut are actively negotiating separate take-private deals with various PE firms; Papa Johns could be valued at $1.5B in a deal

  • Israeli stock trading platform eToro will acquire crypto wallet provider Zengo for $70M cash

  • Robotics software firm Skild AI acquired the robotics automation division of Zebra Technologies

  • Brazilian steelmaker CSN is expecting binding offers for its cement unit in the next few ​weeks

VC

  • Alphabet is set for a $100B windfall from its early SpaceX investment

  • Saudi's PIF is set to cut support for LIV Golf after investing $5B to build a PGA rival

  • Mexican digital bank Plata raised a $405M Series C at a $5B valuation led by Bicycle Capital

  • Glydways, a personal autonomous pod startup, raised a $170M Series C co-led by Suzuki, ACS Group, and Khosla Ventures

  • Turion Space, a space infrastructure company, raised a $75M Series B led by Washington Harbour Partners

  • Artemis, a cybersecurity startup fighting AI-powered attacks with AI, raised a $70M seed and Series A led by Felicis 

  • Parasail, a cloud computing service for AI inference, raised a $32M Series A co-led by Touring Capital and Kindred Ventures

  • NanoTech Materials, an advanced materials company, raised a $29.4M Series A led by HPI Real Estate & Investments

  • Hilbert, an AI startup that helps businesses automate growth-driving business decisions, raised a $28M Series A led by a16z

  • Gizmo, an AI-powered learning platform, raised a $22M Series A led by Shine Capital

  • Auctor, an AI platform for coordinating software implementation, raised a $20M Series A led by Sequoia

  • Phonely, a voice AI startup, raised a $16M Series A at a $100M valuation led by Base10 Partners

  • HYFIX, a semiconductor startup building autonomous systems chips, raised a $15M seed round led by Craft Ventures

  • GobbleCube, an AI-based brand analytics platform, raised a $15M Series A led by Susquehanna Venture Capital

  • Gitar, an AI-driven code validation startup, raised a $9M round led by Venrock

  • Brix, a fintech platform tokenizing EM financial assets, raised a $5.5M round from FRWRD Ventures, Circle Ventures, and others

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • SpaceX is planning site visits for large investors ahead of its historic $75B IPO

  • Amazon-backed nuclear reactor developer X-Energy is seeking to raise $815M at a $7.5B valuation in its IPO

  • Chinese specialized electronics manufacturer Victory Giant is set to price its Hong Kong listing at the highest possible figure to raise $2.6B

  • HVAC giant Madison Air Solutions raised $2.2B at a $13.2B valuation in the biggest US industrials IPO of this century

  • Quant trader Jane Street took an additional $1B stake in $62B-listed AI cloud computing firm CoreWeave and signed a $6B cloud deal

  • Uzbekistan's SWF UzNIF is in talks to add cornerstone investors for its planned London IPO

SPAC / SPV

  • European steel firm Trasteel Holding will merge with Sizzle Acquisition Corp. II in a $230M deal 

Debt

  • JPMorgan raised $10B in a record bond sale by a Wall Street bank

  • Morgan Stanley also raised $10B in a record bond sale by a Wall Street bank

  • Brazil raised $5.9B in its biggest global bond market sale and its first euro bond sale in over a decade

  • Two data centers linked to Google are seeking to raise a record $5.7B in a junk bond sale

  • Colombia bought $290M of dollars ahead of a $4B bond buyback plan

  • China plans to raise $2.3B in its biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023

  • Data center firm Switch raised $770M in an ABS sale

  • PIMCO bought all $400M of bonds issued by a Blue Owl private credit fund

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Brazilian investment firm Quadra Capital is nearing a $3B acquisition of assets from state-owned Banco de Brasília that were previously held by liquidated lender Banco Master

  • Spirit Airlines may begin to liquidate immediately 

  • Liquidators of collapsed Chinese developer Evergrande picked Chinese state-backed tourism firm Guangdong Provincial Tourism over PE firms PAG and Trustar Capital to enter exclusive talks to acquire a majority stake in its property management unit Evergrande Property Services

  • UK picked an unnamed preferred bidder for the sale of Speciality Steel

Funds / Secondaries

  • Singapore quant hedge fund Meridian & Saturn Capital won a $1B mandate from a Gulf SWF to trade Chinese stocks

  • Nordic sustainable investor Alder raised $300M for a multi-asset CV

  • Swiss PE firm ACE & Company raised $230M across a new secondaries fund and lower MM PE fund

  • Spain plans to raise a $200M Boston-focus biotech VC fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Bitcoin miners are set to make 70% of revenue from AI pivots

  • Crypto hedge funds turn to oil and gold on 24/7 venues

  • Early investors in Trump's World Liberty won't be able to fully cash out until after Trump's presidency

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

  • New AI models are getting so powerful that government officials are literally summoning Wall Street execs to discuss their power. Speaking of AI and Wall Street, F2 is at the forefront of putting these latest LLMs to work inside purpose-built deal infrastructure to help private market investors automate DD workflows 75% faster. Given the pace of AI improvement, I highly recommend trying out F2.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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