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Good Morning,

Tiger Woods will lead a committee to radically modernize the PGA, healthcare firms are seeing growing activist investor involvement, hedge fund LPs are pushing back against high fees, quants and academics are clashing over use of AI in investing, and Target's new CEO climbed his way up from an intern.

Fintechs lose a whopping 88% of customers during onboarding, but that needn't be the case. Check out Plaid's free talk on onboarding and customer conversion below.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 08/20/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks continued to slide as a tech selloff picked up on valuation concerns

    • S&P fell for a fourth-straight day

    • S&P shed $1T in market cap since Friday in its largest loss since April

  • UK's FTSE 100 rallied to a fresh ATH

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 is inches from its March ATH

  • India stocks rose for a fourth-straight day 

    • India corporate yields rose 26 bps in two days for the most since 2022 

  • White sugar premium widened to a 13-month high on Pakistan buying

Earnings

  • Target beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on strong digital sales and cost discipline, though comparable sales fell amid consumer pressures, tariffs, and competition from Walmart; the firm named a new CEO (CNBC)

  • Estée Lauder missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and cut its FY outlook amid tariff costs and subdued Chinese consumer demand (BBG)

  • TJX beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and raised FY guidance as strong traffic boosted comps; the firm expects pricing and efficiencies to offset tariffs with their structurally advantageous off-price model (CNBC)

  • Baidu missed Q2 revenue estimates as online ad sales dropped 15% despite 27% cloud growth; AI initiatives failed to offset weakness in the core ad business amid China's slowing economy (RT)

  • Lowe's beat Q2 earnings estimates and met on revenue as it announced its second major home-pro focus acquisition months amid plans attract professional customers, though demand for large homeowner projects remains muted, with management expecting activity to improve when mortgage rates drop below 6% (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week: 

    • Today: Walmart, Zoom, Workday, Costco, Best Buy

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • An awfully stable administration the second time around…except for Musk

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • New Target CEO started as intern (LNK)

  • Meta freezes AI hiring after blockbuster spending spree (WSJ)

  • Russia demanded inclusion in any Ukraine security guarantees (FT)

  • UK inflation rose to 3.8% to an 18-month high (BBG)

  • Fed minutes showed majority of FOMC saw inflation as greater risk (BBG)

  • Trump demanded Fed governor Lisa Cook to resign after fraud probe (BBG)

  • Investors warn of 'new era of fiscal dominance' in global markets (FT)

  • AQR study spurs clash over AI use for quants (BBG)

  • Pension funds missing tech rally turn to completion portfolios (BBG)

  • LPs pile back into hedge funds with decade-high inflows (BBG)

  • Frustrated hedge fund LPs push back on sky-high fees (BBG)

  • US O&G M&A activity quadrupled last year (RT)

  • US banks cut munis exposure to lowest since 2008 (BBG)

  • Healthcare firms see growing activist investor involvement (RT)

  • Man Group doubles down on bearish EM debt view despite rally (BBG)

  • Palantir's $75B wipeout mints billions for struggling shorts (BBG)

  • Intel stock rally sends valuation to dot-com levels (BBG)

  • BofA named Faiz Ahmad and Mike Joo as co-heads of global IB (RT)

  • Lykos named Point72's McEntire as president (BBG)

  • Citi is investigating HR complaints against WM head Andy Sieg (BBG)

  • Deutsche Bank CEO faces scrutiny on risky trades over a decade ago (RT)

  • Truist plans to pursue wealthy clients in expansion push (BBG)

  • OpenAI may sell AI infrastructure service in future (BBG)

  • Visa must face a debit card monopoly class action (BBG

  • PE fund found liable for PortCo's pension debt (BBG)

  • Solar may account for half of new US electricity added this year (RT)

  • McDonald's will lower price of Combo Meals (WSJ)

  • African public lenders are accessing markets to diversify funding (FT)

  • Reading for pleasure fell by 40% in US (FT)

  • Gigantic changes are coming to pro golf (WSJ)

  • A judge again blocked Epstein grand jury transcript release (BBG)

A Message from Plaid

Up-level your onboarding ASAP

Think onboarding new customers should be an afterthought? Think again–according to Plaid, fintechs lose up to 88% of customers during onboarding. That's no bueno. But we're not in the business of pointing out problems without providing answers, which is where the latest Tech Talk from Plaid comes in:

Featuring industry experts from Forrester, Benny, and Plaid, this on-demand webinar will give you actionable tips on how to immediately improve your onboarding, use it to unlock growth, and spot risk without hurting the user experience. 

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Struggling $100B-listed Intel is in talks with other large investors for a discounted equity infusion

  • PE firm Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to buy HR software provider Dayforce for $11.2B at a 32% premium

  • Home improvement retailer Lowe's agreed to acquire drywall and building product distributor Foundation Building Materials for $8.8B in cash

  • India's Aurobindo Pharma offered to acquire Czech drugmaker Zentiva from PE firm Advent International for ~$5.6B

  • Asian healthcare-focused PE firm Quadria Capital is weighing a sale of its minority stake in Indian topical pharma company Encube Ethicals at a $2B valuation

  • Dutch tech investor Prosus is seeking to sell assets worth $2B

  • Authentic Brands agreed to take-private apparel company Guess in a $1.4B all-cash deal at a 26% premium

  • China's Mengniu Dairy is weighing a 20% stake sale in ice cream brand Aice at a $1B valuation

  • Texas-based Superior Energy Services agreed to acquire land drilling rig supplier Nabors' drill pipe rental business Quail Tools in a $600M cash-and-seller note deal

  • UK blocked Chinese battery components maker BIMT's proposed acquisition of graphene-related assets owned by UK advanced engineering group Versarien on national security concerns

VC

  • Quantum computing firm Quantinuum is considering raising funds at an $11B valuation from Honeywell, Nvidia, and others

  • Group14 Technologies, a producer of silicon battery material, raised a $463M Series D led by SK

  • Housing and healthcare AI EliseAI raised a $250M Series E at a $2.2B valuation led by a16z

  • Supply-chain risk management startup Overhaul raised a $105M Series C led by Springcoast Partners and Edison Partners

  • Seemplicity, a cybersecurity startup automating vulnerability management, raised a $50M Series B led by Sienna Venture Capital

  • Upstage AI, an enterprise-grade GenAI solutions, raised a $45M Series B bridge from Korea Development Bank, Amazon, and AMD 

  • Satellite broadband constellation SpinLaunch raised a $30M round led by ATW Partners

  • 401(k) platform Basic Capital raised a $25M Series A led by Forerunner and Lux Capital

  • Bluefish, an AI marketing platform for the Fortune 500, raised a $20M Series A led by NEA

  • Garage, a startup helping firefighters buy equipment, raised a $13.5M Series A led by Infinity Ventures

  • SynergySuite, an AI-based back-of-house platform for restaurants, raised a $12M round led by Oyster Capital

  • Somite Therapeutics, a startup building foundation models for human stem cells, raised an $11M Series A led by AMD Ventures

  • SRE.ai, a startup offering natural language AI agents to perform complex enterprise DevOps workflows, raised a $7.2M seed round led by Salesforce Ventures and Crane Venture Partners

  • Fluence Technology, a startup producing fiber-based femtosecond lasers, raised a $7.7M seed round from Vinci, Radix Ventures, and more

  • Hades Mining, a mining company looking to unlock geothermal energy, raised a $6.4M pre-seed round led by Project A

  • Dex, an AI-powered camera device helping children learn new languages, raised $4.8M from ClayVC, EmbeddingVC, Parable, and UpscaleX

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Saudi contractor MGC is exploring a Saudi IPO at a $3.2B valuation

  • BDT & MSD Partners-backed construction equipment rental company EquipmentShare plans to raise over $1B in an IPO this year

Debt

  • JPMorgan and MUFG are leading a $22B loan to support Vantage Data Centers' expansion efforts

  • Brazilian investment bank Banco Master is seeking a $2.2B credit line from Brazilian deposit insurance fund FGC

  • India's Adani Airport and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone raised a total $275M in offshore debt from MUFG, Barclays, DBS, First Abu Dhabi Bank and Mitsubishi Financial

  • Churchill Asset Management led a $190M private credit deal to support Shamrock Capital's acquisition of corporate communications firm Penta

  • Donald Trump bought $104M in bonds of Meta, Qualcomm, Home Depot, T-Mobile US, and others since inauguration

  • Colombian delivery startup Rappi raised $100M in bank debt and private credit from Banco Santander and Kirkoswald Capital Partners

  • Kenya is in talks with China to convert dollar-denominated debt to yuan and extend the repayment period

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • PE firm Ames Watson acquired most of bankrupt budget jewelry retailer Claire's' North American business

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Private credit firm Monroe Capital plans to raise $350M in its second CFO backed by cash flows from stakes in various funds

  • Bluefront Equity raised $100M for its second fund targeting sustainability in the seafood business

  • Neuberger Berman launched its first interval fund focused on private asset-based credit

  • Thoma Bravo secured permission from LPs of its three latest funds totaling $34B to allocate some equity in LBO deals to other Thoma Bravo vehicles

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Scott Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries

  • Crypto industry hosted a rival gathering in Jackson Hole

  • Crypto firms rush IPO timeline to capitalize on hot US market conditions

  • Coinbase bets on rise of AI payments fueled by digital dollars with new open-source payments protocol x402

  • Crypto firm Tether hired ex-White House crypto adviser Bo Hines

Subscribe to Crypto Sum for the most important stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

  • Viral sleep-tech Eight Sleep recently raised $100M from the likes of Elon Musk and F1 driver Charles Leclerc and its about time you check it out. Their new Pod 5, which fits on any bed, tracks your health while you sleep and automatically optimizes body temperature and breathing throughout the night to have you waking up sharper, energetic, and fully rested from day one. There's a reason why it's trusted by Lewis Hamilton, Mark Zuckerberg, and more. Use code LIT to get $200 off your Eight Sleep Pod 5!

  • Bloomberg dug deep into Meta's $29B private credit raise, exploring how PIMCO outmaneuvered Apollo and KKR to win the deal.

  • Ryan Detrick published some data on what has historically happened when the Fed cut rates at ATHs.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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