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Police raided AC Milan over their Elliott PE sale, Toyota shorts are out in full force, Goldman is seeking a $300B private credit portfolio, FC Barcelona may break up with Nike, an ex-Wall Street banker is challenging AOC for Congress, and cocoa markets are on the brink of chaos.

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Let’s dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks surged yesterday as investors shrugged off sticky inflation data

  • The S&P closed at a new record high

  • Traders are pricing a ~70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, and a ~15% chance of a cut in May or July

• Europe's Stoxx 600 rallied 1% 

• UK’s FTSE 100 hit a 10-month high

• Cocoa futures hit $7k / ton for the first time amid climate-related supply concerns (BBG)

Earnings

• Kohl’s shares fell ~10% after missing revenue estimates and reporting a 4% YoY decline in comparable store sales (YF) 

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Thursday: Adobe, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods

• Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

• US CPI rose 3.2% YoY in February (RT)

• Emerging market ETFs broke inflow records in February (FT)

• FHLB charged $285M in fees for attempting to rescue SVB (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs seeks to expand private credit portfolio to $300B by 2029 (RT)

• Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say (RT)

• Tesla, LVMH and Toyota are their respective regions' most shorted stocks (RT)

• Global corporate dividends hit record $1.66T last year (RT)

• US small business optimism fell to lowest in 9 months (RT)

• BOJ to offer guidance on bond buying upon ending YCC (RT)

• Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn’t cut too quickly (CNBC)

• Carl Icahn dropped a challenge to Illumina's board (RT)

• OpenAI denied Musk's lawsuit claims (CNBC)

• Police raid AC Milan HQ in probe over PE acquisition (FT)

• Boeing max crisis forces airlines to cut flights and pause hiring (CNBC)

• 3M names new CEO amid legal battles and health spinoff (WSJ)

• US power use to reach record highs in 2024 and 2025 (RT)

• TikTok plans full legal fight if US divestment bill becomes law (BBG)

• FC Barcelona may break up with Nike (BF)

• Social Capital fired two partners (FT)

• Tech start-ups are giving new hires fewer shares (FT)

• Standard Chartered's head of IB Simon Cooper to leave (RT)

• US to face Trump-Biden presidential election rematch (AP)

• Ex-Wall Street banker takes on AOC in New York Democratic primary (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Spain approved the $20.3B merger of French mobile operator Orange's Spanish business with rival MasMovil (RT) 

• Apollo Global Management reached out to $8B media giant Paramount Global regarding a possible takeover or asset purchase (AX) 

• Chinese entrepreneur Li Ning is considering leading a consortium to take his $7.3B Hong Kong-listed eponymous sportswear brand Li Ning private (BBG) 

• Japan’s Nidec and PE firm KPS Capital Partners are competing to acquire Siemens’ Innomotics large motors business, which could fetch ~$3.3B (BBG) 

• Campbell Soup completed its $2.3B acquisition of Rao's Homemade-owner Sovos (RT)

• Aluminum producer Alcoa agreed to acquire Alumina in a deal that values the Australian company’s equity at $2.2B (WSJ) 

• National Bank of Canada is reportedly exploring options including a sale of Cambodian unit ABA Bank, which could be valued at over $2B in a deal (BBG) 

• Japanese life insurer Dai-ichi Life Holdings agreed to acquire corporate services company Benefit One for $2B (BBG) 

• Audience insights provider Nielsen Holding is exploring a sale of a package of businesses it has identified as non-core, which could generate fetch $1B (BBG) 

• Steelmaker ArcelorMittal will acquire a 28.4% stake in tubular steel company Vallourec for ~$1B (RT) 

• PE firm Hg is kicking off a sale of Danish telematics firm Trackunit at a potential $1B valuation (BBG) 

• Children’s book publisher Scholastic agreed to acquire 9 Story Media Group, a creator and distributor of kids television content, for $185M (BBG) 

• BlackRock cuts its stake in gold miner Polymetal to 4.01% from 7.44% (RT)

VC

• Autonomous vehicle software startup Applied Intuition raised a $250M Series E at a $6B valuation led by Lux Capital’s Bilal Zuberi, investor Elad Gil, and Porsche Investments Management (TC)

• Bear Robotics, a startup building robots to replace waiters, received a $60M investment from LG Electronics (TC)

• Eclipse Labs, a startup building Ethereum Layer 2 solutions using the Solana Virtual Machine, raised a $50M Series A led by OKX Ventures (PRN)

• Empathy, a startup building a platform to help navigate the bereavement process, raised a $47M Series B led by Index Ventures (TC)

• CodaMetrix, a startup using AI to transform healthcare, raised a $40M Series B led by Transformation Capital (BW)

• Nanonets, a startup automating back-office processes, raised a $29M Series B led by Accel (TC)

• Quaise Energy, a startup attempting to extract terawatt-scale geothermal energy, raised a $21M Series A-1 led by Prelude Ventures and Safar Partners (BW)

• Adaptive ML, a startup helping companies improve their generative AI models, raised a $20M seed round led by Index Ventures (BW)

• Generative AI video startup Tavus raised an $18M Series A led by Scale Venture Partners (BW)

• Axion Ray, a startup creating an AI-powered platform to predict product failures, raised a $17.5M Series A at a $100M valuation led by Bessemer Venture Partners (TC)

• Simera Sense, a startup providing end-to-end optical solutions for the small satellite Earth observation industry, raised a $14.8M round led by NewSpace Capital and Knife Capital (FN)

• Tierra Biosciences, a startup developing a platform for AI-guided custom protein synthesis, raised an $11M Series A led by Material Impact (TC)

• Pienso, a startup building a no-code platform to train AI models, raised a $10M Series A led by Latimer Ventures (TC)

• Prescient AI, a startup providing media measurement and optimization, raised a $10M Series A led by Headline and CEAS Investments (PRN)

• DBOS, a startup reimagining the software stack with the database at its core, raised an $8.5M seed round led by Engine Ventures (TC)

• Elixir, a decentralized network that improves liquidity across orderbook exchanges, raised an $8M Series B at an $800M valuation led by Mysten Labs and Maelstrom (VC)

• Polar Signals, a startup helping companies reduce cloud costs, raised a $6.8M seed round led by GV, Spark Capital, and Lightspeed (TC)

• Confidence-training platform for kids Legends raised a $6M seed round from Reach Capital, Floodgate Capital, and Joe Liemandt (PRN)

• Loop, a SaaS provider for restaurants, raised a $6M seed round led by Base10 Partners (FN)

• Healthcare technology startup Foundation Health raised a $6M seed round from YC CEO Garry Tan, Transpose Platform, Tuesday VC, and more (FN)

• Grupago, a Mexican fintech startup providing SMBs with digital microcredit, raised a $4.3M seed round led by Deciens Capital (BW)

• Whole-family healthcare provider Nest Health raised a $4M seed extension led by SpringTide (PRN)

• Codezero, an innovator in secure enterprise microservices, raised a $3.5M seed round led by Ballistic Ventures (PRN)

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• India's Vishal Mega Mart is planning a $1B IPO that would value the budget supermarket chain at up to $5B (RT) 

Debt

• Coinbase plans to offer $1B of senior unsecured notes to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes (BBG) 

• Buyout firm H.I.G. Capital is seeking $655M of debt financing from lenders led by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Sixth Street to help fund its potential purchase of mechanical and industrial cleaning company USA DeBusk (BBG) 

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Apollo’s Rackspace Technology is nearing a restructuring deal with creditors that would hand it $275M of fresh cash, reduce its debt, and rework the line for creditor repayments (BBG) 

• Real estate developer China Vanke is in talks with banks on a debt swap that would help it stave off its first-ever bond default (BBG) 

• Signa Prime Selection, the luxury property unit of insolvent Signa plans to offer creditors a 30% repayment on their debt under the current restructuring proposal (BBG)

Fundraising

• Peak XV Partners, formerly Sequoia's India arm, launched Peak XV Anchor Fund to take stakes in global seed and early venture funds (BBG) 

Crypto Corner

• Nigeria arrested and accused Binance execs over Nigeria's currency crisis (WSJ)

• The founder of a crypto mixing service Bitcoin Fog was convicted of money laundering (BBG) 

Exec’s Picks

• WSJ uncovered why this year was the most confusing, chaotic college admissions season in recent memory.

• CNBC explored how NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman led the league out of crisis to revive women’s soccer.

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