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Good Morning,

Producer inflation data came in hot, private credit funds are struggling to find deals, prominent investors are buying the dip in UnitedHealth, 401(k)s are more tied to stocks than ever, and the Trump administration is in unusual talks to acquire a stake in Intel.

VC Lerer Hippeau and Litquidity are bringing together an exclusive group of founders, backers, and operators for an evening of drinks, music, and light bites on Friday, August 22 in East Hampton, New York. Some invaluable conversations, especially if you're a founder. RSVP here.

With $14M from OpenAI, Endex is building the first AI agent directly inside Microsoft Excel. A must try if your work involves Excel modeling.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 8/14/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks closed mostly flat yesterday as producer inflation data disappointed 

    • S&P hit another ATH

  • Canada's TSX index hit a new ATH, up 12% YTD

  • Australia's ASX index hit a new ATH, up 8.5% YTD

  • US 2Y and 5Y yields fell to their lowest since May 

  • France 10Y yields are closing in on Italy for the first time since 2008

    • Italy-France 10Y spread is just 14 bps after France 10Y yields climbed 300 bps in the past year

  • Bitcoin hit a fresh ATH

  • Ethereum is near its ATH last seen in 2021

Earnings

  • JD.com beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates driven by consumer subsidies and a push into meal delivery, though margins shrank to 1.7% amid intense discount battles with rivals like Alibaba and Meituan (BBG)

  • John Deere beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but warned of weighing tariffs, forecasting a $600M FY hit after incurring $200M in Q2 (CNBC)

  • Applied Materials beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but issued a downbeat forecast as China-related trade tensions weighed on demand (BBG)

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Yesterday's PPI inflation data cast shadows on some enthusiastic rate cut bets.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • Goldman is offering clients a stake in Millennium for just $1M (BBG)

  • CEOs embrace grind culture in attitude reversal (AX)

  • US PPI rose 3.3% YoY by most in three years (BBG)

  • Hot wholesale inflation data dented rate cut hopes (RT)

  • Bessent is not pushing Fed cuts, just 'touting' models (BBG)

  • Bessent says BOJ is 'behind the curve' on inflation (RT)

  • Japan GDP grew 1.2% YoY in Q2 despite US tariffs (CNBC)

  • Fed reverse repo facility sank to lowest level since April 2021 (BBG)

  • Hedge funds added Microsoft and Netflix in Q2 (BBG)

  • 401(k)s are more tied to stocks than ever (WSJ)

  • PE funds traded in London hint at hidden 401(k) risk (BBG)

  • Private credit funds struggle to find deals to deploy capital (BBG)

  • Junk-debt boom faces investor fatigue as some deals stall (BBG)

  • China stocks turnover tops $300B as bulls take charge (BBG)

  • Canada's CPPIB gained 1% in Q2 amid weak dollar (BBG)

  • Investors seek bigger payout from Japan tech's cash hoard (BBG)

  • US debanking order could create headaches for banks (RT)

  • Chinese investors eye Indonesia to avoid US tariffs (RT)

  • 'Big Short' investor Burry turned more bullish in Q2 (RT)

  • Dan Loeb won vote to turn London-listed fund into reinsurer (BBG)

  • Thai mutual fund assets hit a record $192B in July (BBG)

  • US will layoff 300k workers this year (RT)

  • Corporate AI investments have not yet delivered (NYT)

  • Four BCG staff quit Gaza aid project over early concerns (FT)

  • US charged an ex-Jefferies PM for running a ponzi scheme (CNBC)

A Message from Endex

Endex recently raised $14M from OpenAI to build the first AI agent directly inside Microsoft Excel.

Endex is exclusively tailored to Excel and financial modeling. It's not a separate web-app or platform, but a simple add-in that lives as a sidebar in Excel. If your daily work involves Excel and financial modeling, this is the AI agent for you.

Get Alpha access at endex.ai and watch their launch video here

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • US is seeking to acquire a stake in struggling $100B-listed Intel

  • BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners signed an $11B lease deal involving Saudi Aramco natural gas facilities

  • UK multinational energy firm Centrica and PE firm Energy Capital Partners agreed to jointly purchase UK's Grain LNG terminal from National Grid for $2B

  • RBC and BMO plan to sell their Canadian payments JV for potentially $2B

  • UK student accommodation landlord Unite Group agreed to buy rival Empiric Student Property at a $980M valuation

  • Australian petroleum company Ampol agreed to acquire the Australian business of UK convenience store operator EG Group at a $717M valuation, including debt

  • PE firm Audax acquired biotech Avantor's clinical business for $650

  • Diversified energy firm Conestoga Energy acquired Southwest Airlines' renewable fuels unit

  • One Equity Partners-backed UK marketing group MSQ Partners ruled out a merger with S4 Capital

VC

  • Nvidia-backed AI cloud infrastructure startup Lambda is in talks to raise a round at a $4B-$5B valuation 

  • AI startup Cohere raised a $500M round at a $6.8B valuation led by Radical Ventures and Inovia Capital

  • Autonomous IT startup XOPS raised a $40M round led by Activant Capital and FPV Ventures

  • Darwinbox, an AI-powered human capital management platform, received a $40M investment from OTPP

  • Citizen Health, a patient-powered platform transforming rare disease care, raised a $30M Series A led by 8VC

  • Topline Pro, an AI-powered engine for home service businesses, raised a $27M Series B led by Northzone 

  • Arintra, an GenAI native autonomous medical coding platform, raised a $21M Series A led by Peak XV Partners

  • USD.AI, a startup providing GPU-backed stablecoin lending to AI companies, raised a $13M Series A led by Framework Ventures

  • Bumper, a UK BNPL platform for car servicing and repairs, raised an $11M Series B led by Autotech Ventures

  • AI-powered speech translation engine Palabra raised an $8.4M pre-seed round led by 776

  • martini.ai, an AI-driven fintech specializing in credit analytics for institutional investors, raised $6M in funding from Neotribe Capital and Rocketship VC

  • Create, a startup simplifying app development, raised $8.5M in funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Hg-backed Norwegian software firm Visma lined up banks for what could be London's biggest IPO in years; the firm was last valued at $22B in 2023

  • Berkshire Hathaway offloaded over $4B of Apple shares 

  • Berkshire Hathaway bought $1.6B worth of UnitedHealth shares

  • Vietnamese EV maker VinFast will spinoff its R&D unit Novatech Research and Development and sell a 62% stake to VinFast's founder for $1.5B

  • Circle insiders sold $1.4B in shares, locking in a 350% surge

  • Berkshire Hathaway acquired a $1.6B stake in UnitedHealth and unloaded its entire $1B stake in T-Mobile

  • Activist Starboard Value increased its stake in Pfizer, less than a year after unveiling a $1B position

  • David Tepper's Appaloosa Management boosted its stake in UnitedHealth Group to $764M to make it its second-biggest equity position

  • Starboard Value again raised its stake in SaaS giant Salesforce three years after an intense activist campaign

Debt

  • Citigroup led a $1.9B debt refinancing for Brookfield-backed luxury Bahama resort Atlantis Paradise Island

  • Singapore SWF Temasek sold $1.5B of dollar fixed and floating-rate bonds

  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Blackstone, Ares, Blue Owl, and Antares Capital invested $1.4B in private credit to back Centerbridge Partners' $2B LBO of financial software provider MeridianLink

  • Italian software/apps conglomerate Bending Spoons raised over $585M in debt to buy more firms

  • Fiber firm Zayo reached a deal with creditors to extend maturities to 2030

  • Credit investor Lumina Capital Management is weighing a debt sale tied to H.I.G. Capital-backed Brazilian healthcare company Kora

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Africa's second-largest aluminum smelter South32 is at risk of shutting down

  • Chinese developer Road King unexpectedly suspended debt payments

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • European PE firm CVC raised $4.3B for its targeted $7B sixth flagship secondaries fund 

  • MM PE firm Audax raised $1.3B for its inaugural strategic capital fund

  • Insurance firm Liberty Mutual and New York developer RXR are expanding their credit partnership to deploy $1B in US apartments

  • Dutch private markets FOF Marktlink Capital raised a $600M fund to provide Dutch investors access to PE and VC

  • Millennium and Soros alum Ryan Foster is launching credit hedge fund Extant Capital with $200M seeding from fund of hedge funds New Holland Capital

  • xAI co-founder Igor Babuschkin will depart and launch an investment firm focused on AI safety research

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • US won't buy more bitcoin, but plans aren't off the table

  • Trump-fueled crypto frenzy sparks rush to Wall Street IPOs

  • Citigroup weighs custody and payment services for stablecoins, crypto ETFs

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

  • Market certainty drives businesses to take action. Mizuho | Greenhill's Kevin Costantino, sat down with Stephen Amdur, Partner at Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, to discuss the recent resurgence in dealmaking and what is driving it. Learn more.

  • Want to earn $200/hr of easy side income? Mercor is hiring professionals with IB, PE, equity research, or asset management experience to train AI models for the world's largest research labs. The work is async, part-time, and remote. Plus, they're even offering $1,000 for referrals. Learn more here.

  • Litquidity just launched the AI Alpha Fund on Autopilot to invest in companies across the AI value chain – from semiconductor leaders powering hardware and infrastructure providers enabling scale to application innovators transforming industries. If you want exposure to publicly-traded stocks that will benefit from the AI boom, check out Litquidity's AI Alpha Fund.*

Finance and Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out our recruiting firm, Litney Partners. Established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners has placed strong candidates across leading firms spanning private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, private credit, investment banking, and fintech. Head over to our website to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

We are currently working to find a Head of Capital Markets for an anonymous fintech building a finance super app for business owners. This hire will lead all aspects of fundraising, capital structuring, complex funding strategy, and external lender and investor relationships for a rapidly growing startup. The ideal candidate will possess:

  • 10-20 years of experience in banking, private credit, DCM, LevFin, or a related field

  • 3 years of hands-on management experience

  • Bachelor's degree or higher in finance, economics, business, or a related field

  • Track record of success in a capital markets

  • Excellent leadership, interpersonal skills, and analytical problem-solving abilities

If this sounds like you, let's get in touch. Apply here 🤝

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and/or are curious to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play reviews every submission and will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

Meme Cleanser

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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