US stocks closed mixed yesterday as traders braced for the Fed's rate decision today

Silver surged past $60 for first time on global supply squeeze

GameStop beat Q3 earnings estimates but missed on revenue amid declining hardware, accessories, and software sales despite improved profitability, stronger cash flow, and a sizable Bitcoin position that continues to bolster its balance sheet (RT)

Cracker Barrel beat Q1 revenue estimates but missed on earnings and issued a cautious FY outlook as management walked back its unpopular rebranding effort, pausing remodels and scaling back capital investments amid softer consumer demand (BI)

Campbell's missed Q3 revenue estimates as tariff-driven price increases continued to weigh as is works to balance necessary pricing actions with delivering value during the crucial soup season (WSJ)

Dave & Buster's posting a wider-than-expected Q3 loss though management noted sequential monthly improvement as its operational turnaround plan begins to gain traction (WSJ)

What we're watching this week:

Full calendar here

Swap traders are pricing in global rate hikes at major central banks next year, except for the Fed

Trade your predictions on the path of Fed rate cuts ahead on Polymarket

Traders bet on global rate hikes next year, except at Fed (BBG)

US job openings rose to a five-month high, but layoffs also up (BBG)

Fed chair-favorite Hassett sees room for bigger Fed rate cut (WSJ)

Trump and Bessent shortlisted four Fed chair candidates for final round interviews (FT) 

US bank execs say AI will boost productivity and cut jobs (RT)

Hedge funds and state-backed investors bet on volatility in 2026 (RT)

Bankers are readying US IPOs at 'overwhelming' pace (BBG)

Goldman expects historic M&A momentum to continue into 2026 (RT)

Goldman sees PE dealmaking boom finally coming back to life (BBG)

Private credit deployment hit a record in 2024 (BBG)

BAM CIO/founder Dmitry Balyasny sees AI as biggest tail-risk for 2026 (RT)

Blackstone plays down private credit concerns over bankruptcies (RT)

BofA says US private credit defaults are to set ease in 2026 (RT)

Carlyle is optimistic on fundraising and expects more fee growth (BBG)

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is long on Fannie and Freddie IPOs (RT)

HSBC's new CEO accused co-heads of evading accountability (BBG)

Boaz Weinstein's Saba Capital is down 6.5% YTD (FT)

Trafigura boosts trader payouts after another bumper profit (BBG)

Japan IPOs hit a seven-year high on $8B spree (BBG)

Middle East IPO boom fades amid competition from global markets (BBG)

Europe's defense rally is just beginning (BBG)

ExxonMobil will slash low-carbon spending by one-third (FT)

JPMorgan stock tanked after warning of higher expenses (FT)

BNPL loans and risks are getting harder to measure (WSJ)

NYSE owner sees half of clients interested in prediction markets (BBG)

JPMorgan wants to stamp its name on Boston's skyline (BBG)

Shareholders of mining giants Anglo American and Teck Resources voted in favor of their $50B merger 

Investment bank Xtellus Partners proposed using proceeds from the $22B sale of Russian oil giant Lukoil's foreign assets to repay American investors including BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs who lost billions when their Lukoil stock was frozen due to the Russia-Ukraine war

Cerberus-backed Hamburg Commercial Bank is exploring a sale at a ~$4B valuation

UAE state-owned O&G giant ADNOC emerged as the frontrunner to buy Russia's 55% controlling stake in Serbia's sole oil refinery NIS for potential $2.6B 

Activist hedge fund Jana Partners is urging $2.3B-listed banks fintech Alkami to explore a sale

Mexican media conglomerate Grupo Televisa is interested in acquiring AT&T's Mexico unit which could fetch a $2B valuation

BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners will acquire a 49% stake in Western Australia Iron Ore from mining giant BHP for $2B

Swiss pharma giant Novartis will acquire UK biotech Relation Therapeutics in a $1.7B deal

Bain Capital is considering selling Japan's Tanabe Pharma international assets for $400M-$500M

GIP will invest $335M in Aditya Birla Renewables, the renewables unit of Indian conglomerate Aditya Birla 

PE firm Otro Capital will form and take a minority stake in Utah Brands & Entertainment, the new for-profit athletics department of University of Utah

UK neobank fintech Revolut offered to buy back employee shares at a 30% discount to its recent $75B valuation 

Biology-inspired AI hardware startup Unconventional AI raised a $475M seed round at a $4.5B valuation co-led by a16z and Lightspeed 

Identity-security startup Saviynt raised a $700M Series B growth-equity round at a $3B valuation led by KKR  

Boom Supersonic, a supersonic aircraft and natural-gas turbine company, raised a $300M round led by Darsana Capital Partners 

Real-time generative-media infrastructure startup fal raised a $140M Series D led by Sequoia  

Generative Bionics, an Italian humanoid-robotics spin-off, raised an $80M round led by La Caisse  

AI patent-workflow startup Solve Intelligence raised a $40M Series B co-led by Visionaries and 20VC, following a $12M Series A six months ago

Assaia, an AI-powered airport-operations startup, raised a $26.6M Series B led by Armira Growth 

AnySignal, a mission-critical RF communications platform, raised a $24M Series A led by Upfront Ventures

Prime Security, an AI agentic product-security startup, raised a $20M Series A led by Scale Venture Partners

Safebooks, an AI revenue data governance startup, raised a $15M seed round led by 10D

Pollo AI, an AI image and video generation startup, raised a $14M seed round led by Gaorong Capital    

Extreme-temperature battery startup South 8 Technologies raised an $11M follow-on equity round co-led by W. L. Gore & Associates' and Lockheed Martin Ventures 

Cleric, creator of a self-learning AI SRE agent, raised a $9.8M seed round led by Vertex Ventures US

AI construction design review startup Buildcheck raised a $5.9M seed round led by Uncork Capital

Musk's SpaceX plans to raise $30B at a $1.5T valuation in the biggest IPO ever next year

Temasek and RRJ Capital-owned in-flight caterer Gategroup plans to raise $1.4B in Swiss IPO

Indian food delivery firm Swiggy plans to raise $1.1B in a FPO at a 7% discount just one year after its IPO

Indian developer RMZ Corp. is considering raising $1B in an India IPO

Biotech Insilico Medicine plans to raise $300M in a Hong Kong IPO

Construction tech firm EquipmentShare.com filed for an IPO

Tether and Bitfinex-owned crypto treasury firm Twenty One Capital fell 20% in its trading debut after it merged with Cantor Equity Partners

Data center operator CyrusOne is considering selling $700M of debt tied to its European data centers

Argentina natural gas company TGS raised $500M in an international bond sale

Kisetsu Saison Finance India, a wholly owned subsidiary of Japanese lender Credit Saison, plans to raise $500M in an offshore loan

Clearlake and Siris-backed web services provider Newfold Digital secured $100M in financing in an LME which saw participation from lenders Blackstone, GoldenTree, and PIMCO

Ukraine struck a deal with creditors to swap $2.6B of GDP-linked debt into international bonds

Holders of distressed Chinese developer Vanke's $1.3B offshore bonds are in talks with advisory Houlihan Lokey to prepare for a potential restructuring

Vanke's local creditors are set to vote on a bond extension plan aimed at averting a default

Bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands' $1.1B DIP loan fell to 63¢ after Marathon and Redwood sold, forcing the firm to move up a lender call

California nonprofit hospital Oroville Hospital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with $193 in outstanding munis after failing to sell itself or secure an affiliation with a peer

$7B-listed German food delivery company Delivery Hero is exploring a capital structure restructuring amid pressure from major shareholders

Brookfield and SWF QIA are teaming up on a $20B venture to invest in AI infrastructure

PE firm TPG is seeking to raise $9B-$10B for its latest opportunistic real estate fund, while preparing its next flagship real estate fund and a dedicated Japan CRE fund in a real estate fundraising push

TPG raised $6.2B for its third credit special situations fund

Blue Owl committed $2.5B to housing financing company Point

Candlestick Capital, the $2B hedge fund of ex-Citadel trader Jack Woodruff, will wind down after declining 7% this year

French sustainable investments firm Eiffel Investment Group raised $1.4B for its third European energy transition infrastructure credit fund

Asian VC Granite Asia raised $350M for a pan-Asia private credit fund anchored by SWFs Temasek, Khazanah Nasional, and INA

Impact investor North Sky Capital is seeking to raise $250M for a new sustainability-focused secondaries fund

TD Asset Management launched a global private credit strategy focused on sub-investment grade assets

BlackRock plans to roll out new private markets funds for retail investors following its $12B acquisition of credit specialist HPS Investment Partners

Crypto's liquidity engine breaks down with $5B ETF exodus

Crypto shorts get wrecked as major tokens spike ahead of Fed decision

US bank regulator says banks can act as crypto intermediaries

Coinbase CEO accused EU of profiting from over-regulation fines

BlackRock filed to launch a staked Ether ETF

Democrats weigh GOP offer on crypto market structure bill

PNC Financial launched Bitcoin trading for HNW clients 

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Surprisingly unsurprisingly, EU makes more from fines on US Big Tech than from taxes on all of public European internet tech. See the chart here.

On some more USA supremacy, check out this screenshot. 'Art of the Deal' or whatever they say…

Larry Swedroe answered LPs' favorite question: does PE actually outperform stocks?